Richard Windsor
17 November 2017

Google vs. Facebook – AI dividend.

Google’s AI already pays dividends

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16 November 2017

Android – Downward slope.

Fragmentation getting worse not better

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Richard Windsor
16 November 2017

Apple – Tick in the box.

Hacking of Face ID proves its security

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14 November 2017 · 3 min read

Valuations: An important part of the puzzle

Price/book multiples highlight worrying trend in risk appetite

In this cycle valuations have been, so far, the dog that did not bark. Globally, the median sector price/book multiple has risen from the trough of 2008 to a new peak. Such an expansion in market valuations is similar to that seen in the 1980-1987 period. Between 2012 and today we have come full circle in terms of tactical asset allocation. Earlier, we could not understand why investors were so uninterested in adding risk to portfolios despite such high expected returns in equities. Now, equity valuations suggest only modest long-term returns are on offer and there is greater prospect of short-term disappointment. It is however proving equally difficult to attract investors’ interest in this signal for caution. Perhaps the metaphorical - and silent - valuation dog knows the psychology of the current marginal investor rather too well.

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Richard Windsor
9 November 2017 · 3 min read

Tencent takes a 12% stake in Snap

Tencent is embarking on a circumnavigation of the Digital Life pie in order to build an ecosystem to challenge the established Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook dominance of consumer digital services

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Richard Windsor
8 November 2017
Elaine Reynolds
7 November 2017

Tullow’s Araku result completes our 2017 wells to watch list

At the start of this year, we highlighted seven exploration wells due to be drilled in 2017, all involving independent companies and targeting resources over 100mmboe. The results from the last of these wells, Tullow’s Araku, were announced last week, with the offshore Suriname well proving the presence of gas condensate but with no significant reservoir quality rocks.

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Richard Windsor
7 November 2017

Razer phone - In character

For hardcore fans only

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Richard Windsor
6 November 2017
2 November 2017 · 5 min read

Government bonds in the firing line

The next twist in the story is likely to push global yields higher

It is always important to put aside preconceptions and let all the data speak – and not just that which confirms prior beliefs. At present, the data which best models the long-term outlook (valuations) are suggestive of relatively weak returns in global equities and this has informed our cautious positioning. Furthermore, bond yields and interest rates remain unusually low on a historical basis. Yet for the short-term, economic surprises are currently positive, business sentiment strong and profits growth relatively robust. It is this short-term data which also needs to be heard.

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