Greggs (GRG)

Business description

With over 1,800 shops, nine regional bakeries and 19,500 employees, Greggs is the UK’s leading ‘bakery food-on-the-go’ retailer. It utilises vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices.

Stock data

Market cap.£1355.5m
Last close1,340.00p
High / Low (52 weeks)1361.0p / 914.5p
Stock market listingLN
Forecast net cash (£m)40.1
Forecast gearing ratio (%)N/A
TeamConsumer
SectorFood & Drink

Price performance

%1m3m12m
Actual1.99.744.1
Relative *0.87.832.5

* % Relative to local index

Other companies in sector Show

Company news

Greggs plc

Mon, 09 May 2016 11:50:55 GMT

New ranges and breakfast demand boost sales at Greggs

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 06:37:53 GMT

Tesco and Greggs to give a taste of high street conditions; hurricanes could ...

Fri, 29 Sep 2017 13:09:29 GMT

Greggs first-half profits fall on restructuring costs but sales boosted by ...

Tue, 01 Aug 2017 08:30:15 GMT

'Greggs' growth potential looks tasty' says Berenberg as it upgrades to 'buy'

Thu, 10 Aug 2017 11:14:28 GMT

Y/E Dec Revenue (£m) EBITDA (£m) PBT (£m) EPS (p) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2015A 835.7 113.3 73.0 57.3 23.4 11.3
2016A 894.2 125.9 80.3 62.0 21.6 10.1
2017E 959.4 133.3 80.8 63.6 21.1 10.1
2018E 1028.4 136.8 83.9 66.6 20.1 10.0

Last updated on 12/12/2017

Latest research

A strengthening picture

Update | Food & Drink | 04/10/2017

In balance

Update | Food & Drink | 09/08/2017

Promising performance, strengthened proposition

Update | Food & Drink | 22/05/2017

Successful strategy offers further potential

Outlook | Food & Drink | 06/03/2017

Better-than-expected FY16

Flash note | Food & Drink | 17/01/2017

In line with expectations

Update | Food & Drink | 12/10/2016

Healthy H1

Update | Food & Drink | 03/08/2016

On target

Update | Food & Drink | 11/05/2016

Growing again

Initiation | Food & Drink | 25/04/2016

Daily comment

Institutional Comment | Food & Drink | 10/03/2015

Growth in the oven

Institutional Comment | Food & Drink | 10/03/2015

Daily comment

Institutional Comment | Food & Drink | 04/03/2015

Investment summary

Greggs’ appeal lies in the combination of its relatively low-risk business model, strong cash generation and return to strong earnings growth in the past two years. Its strategic plan is delivering sustained results and it has the financial strength to complete the programme. Q3 sales growth of 8.6% and like-for-like sales of 5.0% outstripped H1. The new forecasting and replenishment system has resulted in additional wastage, which is slower to resolve than expected, although the net benefits of the change are positive.

Last updated on 13/12/2017

Industry outlook

Greggs enjoys an expanding market. The Project Café2017UK report (Allegra World Coffee portal) valued the UK coffee shop market in 2016 at £8.9bn, +12% y-o-y. Branded outlets (including Greggs) accounted for £3.7bn. Allegra estimates it could reach £16bn by 2025. Growth of inflation against wages is a potential concern, although arguably Greggs is well placed for the value switch after widespread refurbishments extended customer options and moves to widen its market.

Last updated on 13/12/2017

Key management

Roger Whiteside, CEO
Richard Hutton, FD

Company address

Fernwood House
Clayton Road
Newcastle Upon Tyne
Newcastle Upon Tyne
NE2 1TL
United Kingdom
+44 (0)191 281 7721
View website