Greggs (GRG)

Business description

With over 1,790 shops, nine regional bakeries and 19,500 employees, Greggs is the UK’s leading ‘bakery food-on-the-go’ retailer. It utilises vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices.

Stock data

Market cap.£1188.6m
Last close1,175.00p
High / Low (52 weeks)1180.0p / 901.5p
Stock market listingLN
Forecast net cash (£m)40.1
Forecast gearing ratio (%)N/A
TeamConsumer
SectorFood & Drink

Price performance

%1m3m12m
Actual9.19.714.3
Relative *9.011.05.3

* % Relative to local index

Other companies in sector Show

Y/E Dec Revenue (£m) EBITDA (£m) PBT (£m) EPS (p) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2015A 835.7 113.3 73.0 57.3 20.5 9.9
2016A 894.2 125.9 80.3 62.0 19.0 8.8
2017E 959.4 133.3 80.8 63.6 18.5 8.8
2018E 1028.4 136.8 83.9 66.6 17.6 8.8

Last updated on 10/08/2017

Latest research

In balance

Update | Food & Drink | 09/08/2017

Promising performance, strengthened proposition

Update | Food & Drink | 22/05/2017

Successful strategy offers further potential

Outlook | Food & Drink | 06/03/2017

Better-than-expected FY16

Flash note | Food & Drink | 17/01/2017

In line with expectations

Update | Food & Drink | 12/10/2016

Healthy H1

Update | Food & Drink | 03/08/2016

On target

Update | Food & Drink | 11/05/2016

Growing again

Initiation | Food & Drink | 25/04/2016

Daily comment

Institutional Comment | Food & Drink | 10/03/2015

Growth in the oven

Institutional Comment | Food & Drink | 10/03/2015

Daily comment

Institutional Comment | Food & Drink | 04/03/2015

Daily comment

Institutional Comment | Food & Drink | 14/01/2015

Investment summary

Greggs’ interims show a company in balance in several ways. First, operational and site development initiatives are driving consistent sales growth despite a challenging market. Second, the balance between low-price value and perceived quality is allowing it to cover peak input cost increases without a serious impact on margins. Third, the financial model is operating to support the dividend with a stable balance sheet.

Last updated on 09/08/2017

Industry outlook

Greggs enjoys an expanding market. The Project Café2016 UK report (Allegra World Coffee Portal) valued the UK coffee shop market in 2015 at £7.9bn, +10% vs 2014. Branded outlets (including Greggs) accounted for £3.3bn. Allegra estimates it could reach £15bn by 2025. Growth of inflation against wages is a potential concern, although arguably Greggs is well placed for the value switch following widespread refurbishments.

Last updated on 03/08/2017

Key management

Roger Whiteside, CEO
Richard Hutton, FD

Company address

Fernwood House
Clayton Road
Newcastle Upon Tyne
Newcastle Upon Tyne
NE2 1TL
United Kingdom
+44 (0)191 281 7721
View website