Avesco Group — Update 3 October 2016

Avesco Group — Update 3 October 2016

Avesco Group

Fiona Orford-Williams

Written by

Fiona Orford-Williams

Director, TMT

Avesco Group

Coming Together around CT

Presteigne disposal

Media

3 October 2016

Price

315p

Market cap

£60m

$1.30:£

Net debt (£m) at 31 March 2016

3.2

Shares in issue

19.1m

Free float

56%

Code

AVS

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

37.9

47.9

56.3

Rel (local)

35.7

38.4

38.9

52-week high/low

310.0p

196.5p

Business description

Avesco is a leading international provider of services to the corporate presentation, entertainment and broadcast markets.

Next events

Preliminary results

January 2017

Analysts

Fiona Orford-Williams

+44 (0)20 3077 5739

Jane Anscombe

+44 (0)20 3077 5740

Bridie Barrett

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Avesco is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Avesco (AVS) has announced the disposal of Presteigne, its broadcast hire business, for £5.0m in cash on completion. With the sale of Fountain Studios earlier in 2016, the group is now firmly centred on its audio visual (AV) services. Our profit forecasts (and FY16e EPS) are trimmed, although IFRS earnings stay the same, reflecting the tax impact of the deal. The disposal further strengthens AVS’s balance sheet, increasing the potential to invest in the core business. It also reduces earnings volatility between ‘odd’ and ‘even’ years and clarifies the investment proposition, all of which should help further narrow the valuation discount.

Year
end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

09/14

126.4

5.0

12.4

6.0

25.4

1.9

09/15

133.7

5.7

25.3

7.0

12.5

2.2

09/16e

135.0

7.0

21.5

8.0

14.7

2.5

09/17e

143.0

8.0

27.3

9.0

11.5

2.9

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Presteigne disposal terms and impact

Presteigne was reported in the AVS accounts as Broadcast Services, representing just under 5% of FY15 revenues. Loss making in that year, reflecting generally competitive and commodity markets and a particular client issue, it had made good progress in FY16 benefiting from coverage of the Rio Olympics and Formula One. Its business and assets are being sold to management (backed by NVM Private Equity LLP) for £5.0m (NBV of £6.4m). Profit forecasts, which had recently been upgraded (see our update note of 2 September), are trimmed, with our FY16e pre-tax forecast moving from £7.6m to £7.0m and FY17e from £8.4m to £8.0m. EPS (normalised) move from 24.6p to 21.5p for FY16e, but are unchanged for FY17e (as are IFRS EPS for both years), reflecting the tax implications of the sale.

Centring on audio visual

The post-disposal Avesco will be solely focused on AV. The two remaining businesses are Creative Technology, a leading international supplier of specialist audio visual services and equipment to the live events, broadcast and entertainment industries, and the significantly smaller mclcreate, which offers full technical support for music, conferences, sports, corporate events and TV. The group will now have better visibility and be more straight-forward to model, with a less volatile financial performance and clearer investment priorities.

Valuation: Discount narrowing

Avesco’s share price has traded in a range of 200-235p since the beginning of the year, before breaking out on the positive trading news in early September. However, the valuation remains at a clear discount to other media and events stocks. Avesco is currently trading on an EV/EBIT of 7.2x in FY16e and 6.4x in FY17e, compared with 13.5x and 10.9x respectively for peers (EV/EBIT being a more relevant metric given the structurally higher depreciation on hire equipment). With the more consistent trading model and clearer investment story, there is good scope for this discount to narrow further.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£'000s

2013

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

Year end 30 September

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

124,033

126,391

133,674

135,000

143,000

Cost of sales

(80,408)

(80,186)

(83,035)

(83,700)

(88,660)

Gross profit

43,625

46,205

50,639

51,300

54,340

EBITDA

18,943

24,968

26,955

24,150

24,750

Depreciation and software amortisation

(18,432)

(18,715)

(19,598)

(15,850)

(15,750)

Trading profit (before exceptional items)

511

6,253

7,357

8,300

9,000

Amortisation of acquired intangible assets

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptional items

(8,861)

(5,385)

(2,499)

8,700

0

Operating profit

(8,350)

868

4,858

17,000

9,000

Net Interest

(1,529)

(1,298)

(1,650)

(1,300)

(1,000)

Profit before tax (norm)

(1,018)

4,955

5,707

7,000

8,000

Profit before tax (FRS 3)

(9,879)

(430)

3,208

15,700

8,000

Tax

(744)

(2,310)

(854)

(2,900)

(2,800)

Minority interest

0

0

0

0

0

Profit on discontinued operations

45,729

1,192

1,072

600

0

Profit after tax (norm)

(1,762)

2,645

4,853

4,100

5,200

Profit after tax (FRS 3)

35,106

(1,548)

3,426

13,400

5,200

Average number of shares outstanding (m)

25.8

21.4

19.2

19.1

19.1

EPS - normalised fully diluted (p)

(6.8)

12.4

25.3

21.5

27.3

Dividend per share (p)

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Gross margin (%)

35.2

36.6

37.9

38.0

38.0

EBITDA margin (%)

15.3

19.8

20.2

17.9

17.3

Operating margin (before GW and except) (%)

0.4

4.9

5.5

6.1

6.3

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed assets

62,160

62,311

59,201

50,200

49,047

Intangible assets

311

130

209

229

229

Tangible assets

56,346

57,787

54,266

45,621

44,468

Other (mainly deferred income tax assets)

5,503

4,394

4,726

4,350

4,350

Current assets

67,655

33,462

40,741

40,133

41,584

Stocks

829

596

649

688

751

Debtors

23,114

23,801

25,860

26,807

28,396

Cash

43,699

9,065

12,749

12,638

12,438

Other

13

0

1,483

0

0

Current liabilities

(38,607)

(33,259)

(35,592)

(26,936)

(25,736)

Creditors

(30,712)

(25,357)

(27,247)

(21,936)

(23,236)

Short-term borrowings

(7,895)

(7,902)

(8,345)

(5,000)

(2,500)

Long-term liabilities

(18,009)

(30,371)

(29,931)

(13,500)

(10,000)

Long-term borrowings

(13,467)

(22,602)

(21,866)

(7,500)

(7,000)

Other long-term liabilities

(4,542)

(7,769)

(8,065)

(6,000)

(3,000)

Net assets

73,199

32,143

34,419

49,897

54,895

CASH FLOW

Operating cash flow

17,098

16,415

26,292

24,500

25,400

Net interest

(1,604)

(1,224)

(1,634)

(1,300)

(1,000)

Tax

(1,157)

(1,268)

(2,942)

(2,300)

(5,100)

Capex (net)

(15,766)

(19,042)

(15,975)

(15,000)

(15,000)

Net acqs/ Disney payout FY13/ Fountain disposal + non-trading items FY16

49,818

0

634

13,000

0

Share buy-back/redemption

0

(21,861)

0

0

0

Dividends

(1,032)

(17,468)

(1,474)

(1,300)

(1,500)

Net cash flow

47,357

(44,448)

4,901

17,600

2,800

Opening net debt/(cash)

24,765

(22,337)

21,439

17,462

(138)

Other (inc currency)

(255)

672

(924)

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

(22,337)

21,439

17,462

(138)

(2,938)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

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Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Avesco Group and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Avesco Group and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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