Bowleven — Update 19 August 2016

Bowleven — Update 19 August 2016

Bowleven

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Bowleven

Buyback demonstrates confidence in asset base

Share buyback

Oil & gas

19 August 2016

Price

24.5p

Market cap

£80m

£0.76/US$

Net cash ($m) at June 2016e

93

Shares in issue

327.3m

Free float

93%

Code

BLVN

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

14.0

18.1

2.1

Rel (local)

10.4

7.0

(2.4)

52-week high/low

27.0p

18.2p

Business description

Bowleven is an AIM-listed, Africa-focused E&P with assets in Cameroon. Its main asset is its 20% net interest in the Etinde development, which holds 290mmboe of 2C contingent resource.

Next events

Share buyback programme

Q316

Appraisal wells

2017

Analysts

Will Forbes

+44 (0)20 3077 5749

Elaine Reynolds

+44 (0)20 3077 5713

Bowleven is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Bowleven’s proposed $10m buyback of its shares shows management’s confidence in the value of its asset base and strength of balance sheet. With shares regularly trading near cash levels (and at a material discount to core NAV), the proposed $10m buyback would be accretive for NAV/share while not reducing the company’s cash position materially (given an additional $15m cash injection is expected in September) or limiting its ability to execute on its strategy. We have made a number of changes to our valuation, with core NAV rising from 45p to 46p/share. Our RENAV moves to 61p/share (from 60p/share). We note that these valuations have the potential to move up by 6% if the shares are bought back at a price of 22p/share.

Year
end

Revenue
($m)

PBT*
($m)

Operating cash flow ($m)

Capex
($m)

Net cash
($m)

06/15

0.0

(14.1)

(10.4)

35.1

144.8

06/16e

0.0

(4.5)

(14.0)

38.9

92.5

06/17e

6.4

(10.9)

(4.9)

39.0

63.8

06/18e

14.4

(9.4)

(0.5)

6.0

82.6

Note: *PBT is normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Highly accretive to NAV/share

The shares have traded close to cash (and at a significant discount to our NAV) for some time, implying very little value for the Etinde and Bomono assets. The buyback is therefore strongly accretive to valuation and should highlight to investors the value of BLVN’s development and appraisal assets.

Etinde and Bomono developments ongoing

NewAge has identified a small-scale (75-100mmscfd) LNG plant with offshore processing as its preferred concept for Etinde (offering the most viable and time efficient option) and is in discussions with the government. Other concepts (fertiliser, gas to power and other LNG schemes) remain options, while the results of the carried Intra Isongo appraisal wells (due in 2017) have the potential to more than double the reserve base. Bomono development discussions are ongoing, with government EA approval the next milestone.

Valuation: Core NAV increases to 46p/share

We have made a number of changes to our valuation (including the effect of the weaker pound), which moves core NAV from 45p/share to 46p/share, while the RENAV moves from 60p/share to 61p/share. The buyback could add around 6% to these NAVs/share (depending on the share price at which the buyback is executed). There are uncertainties to the timing and concept of the Etinde development (where a small-scale LNG solution is now preferred), but with gross 2C contingent resources of 290mmboe and strong partners, the board has shown confidence in the long-term value of the company. We also note the carried appraisal wells (in early 2017) have the potential to more than double the resource base in the next six to nine months.

Little impact on strategy

We do not believe the buyback signals that the company will stop looking at acquisition opportunities in the current environment. Although the buyback is aimed at spending as much as $10m, even the full use of this sum would not dent financial flexibility. We note that Bowleven is due $15m at the end of September, so its capacity to make acquisitions is not reduced markedly.

Having said this, we expect the company to continue to be conservative with its cash, being careful not to overpay for any acquisitions. We see its withdrawal from the Aminex assets in Tanzania as evidence of its caution.

Accretive purchase of shares increases valuation

The buyback of shares at a significant discount to NAV/share is clearly an accretive action.

We have made changes to our previously published valuation (when core NAV was 45p/share). These are primarily to reflect the decline of sterling following Brexit (mechanistic application, this alone would have increased the core NAV by around 9.5%), partially offset by other modelling adjustments including to G&A (given we assume all is incurred in pounds sterling), cash burn to H216, working capital and expected payments of $15m due from NewAge/Lukoil at the end of September (we now assume 100% of this value). The result is a new core NAV of 46p/share and a RENAV of 61p/share (from 60p/share).

The impact of the buyback can be seen in the sensitivity tables below, but could add up to another 6% to core NAV/share if we assume buybacks are executed at 22p/share.

At this point we have not made changes to our assumptions on the development of Etinde (we still assume a fertiliser solution with first gas in 2022), though we acknowledge that a different solution (small-scale, accelerated LNG scheme with offshore processing) is the first choice for the consortium. We explicitly assume that the Etinde project receives FID at the start of 2018, triggering a payment of $25m to Bowleven. We also leave our modelling of Bomono unchanged (assumes first production in H217), though we note that without a further update on progress here delays to this timetable would not be a surprise.

We expect to update the valuation as and when we get further details on the projects and when the buyback is completed.

Exhibit 1: Valuation summary

Asset

£0.76/US$
No of shares: 327.28

Recoverable reserves

Net risked value

Diluted WI

CoS

Gross

Net

NPV

@12.5% DR

DR sensitivity

%

%

mmboe

$/boe

$m

p/share

10%

15%

20%

Net (Debt) Cash - June 2016e

100%

100%

93

22

23

23

23

SG&A (NPV of 3 yrs)

100%

100%

(27)

(6)

(7)

(7)

(7)

$25m on FID (assumed 2017)

100%

87%

22

5

5

5

5

$15m on appraisal wells (cash-in assumed end Sept 2016, wells drilled early 2017)

100%

100%

15

4

4

4

4

Development

0

0

0

Etinde development

20%

50%

181

36

5.2

94

22

32

17

9

Core NAV

 

 

 

 

 

196

46

56

41

33

Potential development

0

0

0

CLNG extension

20%

20%

109

22

6.7

29

7

7

7

7

Bomono - Moambe small scale gas project

90%

50%

11

10

6.0

30

7

10

6

4

Possible exploration

0

0

0

Bomono - Zingana Power Supply

90%

24%

27

24

2.3

14

3

6

2

0

Cost of cash shortfall for development

100%

24%

(6)

(1)

(1)

(1)

(1)

Possible exploration NAV

 

 

 

 

 

67

16

21

13

9

RENAV

 

 

 

 

 

263

61

77

54

42

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: This does not include the impact of the proposed buyback, which would deplete cash reserves, but reduce the share count.

Impact of buyback

As approved at the AGM, the management is authorised to buy back up to 48,619,857 shares, representing 14.99% of the share capital of the company. The company has announced that it will seek to purchase up to $10m of shares, which represents around 10% of the current market cap. It sought approval to do this at the last AGM (and approval lasts until the next AGM).

Our modelling does not assume the buyback, but we set out below the degree of NAV/share impact based on various scenarios in which shares are bought and cancelled. This indicates that NAV/share could be boosted by up to c 6% depending on the number and price of shares bought back. Given the significant discount on which the shares trade (vs our NAV), the buyback is clearly accretive.

Exhibit 2: Accretion to core NAV/share, according to shares bought back and price paid

% of current share capital bought back

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

10.0%

Shares bought back

8.2m

16.4m

24.5m

32.7m

Price, p/share

20.0

1.4%

3.0%

4.6%

6.2%

22.0

1.3%

2.7%

4.2%

5.8%

24.0

1.2%

2.5%

3.9%

5.3%

26.0

1.1%

2.3%

3.5%

4.8%

28.0

1.0%

2.0%

3.1%

4.3%

30.0

0.9%

1.8%

2.8%

3.8%

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: Grey shading indicates cases where the company would need to spend more than $10m in buying back the shares.

Financials

Bowleven’s balance sheet strength (of an estimated $93m net cash at end June 2016) allows it to make the proposed $10m buyback with little impact on its financial flexibility. The terms of the farm-out with NewAge/Lukoil guarantee Bowleven $15m at the end of September 2016. As a result, the company’s cash position would be stronger at the end of September than it is now, with the added bonus of a smaller share count.

The company remains well financed to invest in its existing asset base and new opportunities. The carry of the two appraisal wells on Etinde in early 2017 means little cash outflow is expected before the middle of 2017, while Bomono’s development plan of rented power gen units reduces upfront capex.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

US$000s

2013

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

2018e

Year end June

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

Revenue

 

 

0

0

0

0

6,411

14,355

Cost of Sales

0

0

0

0

(2,190)

(4,380)

Gross Profit

0

0

0

0

4,221

9,975

EBITDA

 

 

(10,592)

(11,604)

(11,471)

(10,196)

(6,799)

(1,596)

Operating Profit (before GW and except.)

 

 

(11,088)

(12,025)

(11,868)

(10,837)

(11,111)

(9,581)

Exceptionals

0

0

(75,959)

(133,458)

15,000

25,000

Goodwill and intangible amortisation

0

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

(11,088)

(12,025)

(87,827)

(144,295)

3,889

15,419

Net foreign exchange gain/(loss)

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net Interest

7

(1,577)

(2,192)

6,326

239

187

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(11,081)

(13,602)

(14,060)

(4,511)

(10,872)

(9,394)

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(11,081)

(13,602)

(90,019)

(137,969)

4,128

15,606

Tax

0

0

0

0

0

(851)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(11,081)

(13,602)

(14,060)

(4,511)

(10,872)

(10,245)

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(11,081)

(13,602)

(90,019)

(137,969)

4,128

14,755

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

295

324.3

324.3

327.3

327.3

327.3

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

(3.8)

(4.2)

(4.3)

(1.4)

(3.3)

(3.1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EPS - FRS 3 (c)

 

 

(3.8)

(4.2)

(27.8)

(42.2)

1.3

4.5

Dividend per share (c)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

66%

69%

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

-106%

-11%

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

-173%

-67%

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

533,437

551,446

306,558

212,886

247,573

245,589

Intangible Assets

532,507

550,745

304,662

207,931

211,419

204,634

Tangible Assets

930

701

1,896

4,955

36,155

40,955

Investments

0

0

0

0

0

0

Current Assets

 

 

52,150

42,351

212,029

161,861

133,201

151,935

Stocks

11,023

10,404

5,370

6,500

6,500

6,500

Debtors

16,385

6,493

6,431

7,500

7,500

7,500

Cash

19,742

20,454

144,751

92,510

63,850

82,584

Other receivables

5,000

5,000

55,477

55,351

55,351

55,351

Current Liabilities

 

 

(15,568)

(6,274)

(12,695)

(12,000)

(12,000)

(12,000)

Creditors

(15,568)

(6,274)

(12,695)

(12,000)

(12,000)

(12,000)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net Assets

 

 

570,019

587,523

505,892

362,746

368,774

385,524

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(8,404)

(8,576)

(10,438)

(13,956)

(4,899)

(453)

Net Interest

556

177

139

269

239

187

Tax

0

0

0

0

0

0

Capex

(114,381)

(18,037)

(35,141)

(38,876)

(39,000)

(6,000)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

160,688

0

0

0

Financing

76

20,924

71

445

0

0

Other

0

4,482

9,016

39

15,000

25,000

Net Cash Flow

(122,153)

(1,030)

124,335

(52,078)

(28,660)

18,734

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(142,481)

(19,742)

(20,454)

(144,751)

(92,510)

(63,850)

Effect of FX changes

(586)

1,742

(38)

(163)

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

0

(0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(19,742)

(20,454)

(144,751)

(92,510)

(63,850)

(82,584)

Source: Edison Investment Research, Bowleven accounts. Note: This excludes the potential effects of the proposed buyback, which may reduce cash reserves by up to $10m and reduce the share count.

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DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Bowleven and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Bowleven and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

TP Group — Update 19 August 2016

TP Group

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