C&C Group — Update 30 November 2015

C&C Group — Update 30 November 2015

C&C Group

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C&C Group

Strong cash, but needing growth

Food & beverages

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1 December 2015

Price

€3.68

Market cap

€1,245m

Share price graph

Share details

Code

CCR

Listing

LSE

Shares in issue

338.4m

Business description

C&C Group is a manufacturer, marketer and distributor of branded cider, beer, wine and soft drinks. Its three key markets are the UK, the US and Ireland. It also exports to many countries internationally.

Bull

€100m share buyback supported by strong balance sheet and high FCF.

The business is well invested in domestic markets and asset light in export markets.

Potential M&A, both as a consolidator and target, particularly given its favourable tax base in Ireland.

Bear

C&C has had negative organic revenues since 2007 and no uplift is expected in the near term.

Competitive conditions in core Irish market, particularly due to new entrants in the cider market.

US business remains below expectations and may be difficult to turn around.

Analysts

Victoria Pease

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Paul Hickman

+44 (0)20 3077 5704

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C&C Group’s recent H116 results continued the trend of negative revenue growth and weak trading conditions across all core markets. However, a robust balance sheet and strong FCF are enabling an ongoing €100m buyback. At a P/E of c 14x FY17e, the shares are trading at a significant discount to peers but, in our view, a re-rating is conditional on a turnaround in the US and a return to organic growth.

Challenging times in core markets

Trading conditions in core markets continue to be challenging, with H116 revenues declining 2.6% to €359m and operating margin declining 13bp to 17.5%. This was attributed largely to transitional difficulties in Ireland and Scotland, with organic revenues declining 12.3% and 9.8% respectively. The recently acquired US assets continued to disappoint, with sales down by 12.5%. C&C has not posted positive organic revenue growth since 2007 and, despite positive expectations in Ireland and Scotland, we do not foresee any material uplift for the group into 2016.

Shareholder returns remain strong

Despite the operational difficulties, C&C benefits from a robust balance sheet and strong cash generation. Returns to shareholders remain a priority, as evidenced by the progressive dividend policy, the €30m buyback completed in January and a further €100m buyback to July 2016. In addition, C&C expects to deliver annual cost savings of €15m and is maintaining its net/debt to EBITDA target of 2x.

M&A: Still possible, but not a priority

Aided by an attractive tax base, C&C has been extremely acquisitive since 2010, including five large deals that totalled c €500m: Tennent’s (UK), Gaymers (UK), Vermont Cider (US), Hornsby (US) and Gleesons (UK). However, the US acquisitions have been particularly disappointing and management has stated that its priority is to turn these around, rather than target further international assets.

Buyback supports shares in medium term

C&C’s operational challenges are reflected in a P/E of c 14x FY17e, a significant discount to the sector. While the continuing share buyback provides support at current levels, we believe a re-rating is conditional on turning around the US business and returning to positive organic growth in its core UK and Irish markets.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(€m)

PBT
(€m)

EPS
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

02/15

684

(68)

0.27

0.115

13.6

3.1

02/16e

712

96

0.25

0.112

14.7

3.0

02/17e

712

101

0.27

0.125

13.6

3.4

02/18e

721

105

0.29

0.131

12.7

3.6

Source: Bloomberg estimates

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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