Cobham — Update 10 November 2016

Cobham — Update 10 November 2016

Cobham

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Cobham

Process focused

Aerospace and defence

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10 November 2016

Price

148p

Market cap

£2.5bn

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Share details

Code

COB

Listing

LSE

Shares in issue

1,707m

Business description

Based in Poole in the UK, Cobham operates in commercial, defence and security markets. It has leading positions in air-to-air refuelling, aviation services, wireless, data communications (including SATCOM), defence electronics, life support and mission equipment.

Bull

Increased commercial exposure in growth markets, although some are subdued this year.

A dominant position in the growing aerial refuelling market, supplying Airbus, Boeing and Embraer.

Defence spending prospects starting to improve.

Bear

Operational issues in Wireless and poor market conditions in SATCOM and Integrated Electronic Solutions have led to profit warnings.

A high level of net debt, inflated by translation of US$-denominated lines to sterling, initiated a £500m rights issue earlier this year.

Current management team lacking credibility and new team not due in place until 1 January 2017.

Analysts

Alexandra West

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Andy Chambers

+44 (0)20 3077 5722

History is likely to call 2016 Cobham’s annus horribilis. In 2015 the future looked bright, with the company delivering its first organic growth in 10 years. However, 2016 has seen three profit warnings and both the CEO and CFO resign. Two recent acquisitions, Axell Wireless and Aeroflex, have proved extremely challenging to integrate into Cobham, taking the wireless business from a 15% margin to significantly loss making. The company is in a hiatus as it awaits new management – CEO David Lockwood (Laird) and CFO David Mellors (QinetiQ) – so 2017 could be the start of a new era.

Integration issues in wireless business

Cobham’s Q316 trading update (24 October) made painful reading after its Q116 profit warning. Management noted subdued market conditions in SATCOM and some further delays in development programmes in the Integrated Electronic Solutions business. However, the biggest issues were related to the wireless business and its processes. Wireless (c £160m revenue, 8% group) was formed from two recent acquisitions, approximately two-thirds of revenue from the former Aeroflex business and one-third from Axell Wireless. Significant integration issues occurred when the two production lines were consolidated under one management, meaning delayed shipments, operational issues and a one-off charge. Current CEO Bob Murphy thought he had largely remedied the problems during the first half, but some problems continued through Q3.

Lack of management credibility

Q4 will be crucial in proving whether the wireless business is back on track. Mr Murphy remains a believer that the wireless technology acquired with Aeroflex is crucial to Cobham’s future in a 5G world, because he, like many others, sees the different strands of communication, which are today silos, becoming more integrated as part of the Internet of Things. Unfortunately, the current management lacks credibility in the market so all eyes will be on the incoming team’s strategy statements.

Valuations: Discount to sector due to lack of growth

FY17 consensus estimates forecast 5% revenue and 6% EPS growth. This reflects no organic growth, but a strong FX tailwind and the absence of one-off costs, partially offset by rights issue dilution. Cobham is trading at a discount to the sector average of 15.1x for FY17e and is unlikely to re-rate until the new management shows a clear path to growth. That said, at this valuation Cobham could be of strategic interest to an A&D peer looking to benefit from its technologies.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(£m)

PBT
(£m)

EPS
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/15

2,072

280

16.6

9.5

8.9

6.4

12/16e

1,977

232

11.6

7.5

12.8

5.1

12/17e

2,071

267

12.3

7.3

12.0

4.9

12/18e

2,120

285

13.3

7.5

11.1

5.1

Source: Bloomberg

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Disclaimer

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are "wholesale clients" for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document.
A marketing communication under FCA rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a "personalised service" and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a "class service" provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited ("FTSE") (c) FTSE [2014]. "FTSE(r)" is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE's express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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