Egdon Resources — Update 5 December 2016

Egdon Resources (AIM: EDR)

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Research: Energy & Resources

Egdon Resources — Update 5 December 2016

Egdon Resources

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Energy & Resources

Egdon Resources

Unlevered UK shale play

Company update

Oil & gas

5 December 2016

Price

14.25p

Market cap

£37m

US$:£1.3

Net cash (£m) 30 July 2017e

6.4

Shares in issue

258.9m

Free float

51%

Code

EDR

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

6.0

4.0

55.4

Rel (local)

8.9

5.0

44.8

52-week high/low

17.56p

6.97p

Business description

Egdon Resources is an AIM-listed onshore oil and gas exploration company. The group has conventional and unconventional assets in the UK and France.

Next events

Wressle first oil

H117

Analysts

Sanjeev Bahl

+44 (0)20 3077 5742

Ian McLelland

+44 (0)20 3077 5756

Egdon Resources is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Post the fund-raise, Egdon has zero debt and cash of c £7.0m, making it the largest unlevered UK-listed shale play. Licences span over 200,000 net acres with an ERCE estimated undiscovered gas initially in place (GIIP Pmean) of 48tcf. Our valuation is adjusted for placing proceeds and associated NAV/share dilution; this is offset by inclusion of 14th round licence awards. Our valuation is broken down in to 3.7p/share for core 2P value (including cash and net of G&A) and 18.5p/share for contingent resource and risked exploration. We also include an indicative dollars per acre shale valuation of 25.7p/share.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

EBITDA
(£m)

PBT*
(£m)

Debt
(£m)

Net cash
(£m)

Capex
(£m)

07/15

2.1

(4.0)

(4.5)

0.0

5.2

(3.3)

07/16

1.6

(0.7)

(2.7)

0.0

2.7

(2.4)

07/17e

2.5

0.2

(1.0)

0.0

6.4

(1.3)

07/18e

4.5

2.2

0.7

0.0

5.5

(3.1)

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Fundraise and use of proceeds

Egdon has raised £5.06m (gross) through a £3m placing with shareholder HEYCO International and just over £2m via an open offer, both priced at 13.5p/share. The proceeds are to be used to progress the Wressle oil field through to management expected first oil in H117. They will also be used to progress 14th round licence awards and the ‘A’ prospect to drillable status.

Wressle first oil in 2017

The development of Wressle will provide Egdon with a step change in production, albeit from relatively low levels. We currently forecast FY17 production of 165boepd, in-line with management guidance and predicated on Wressle first oil in Q217. We forecast an increase to 233kboed in FY18 with potential for Egdon to generate £2.2m of cash from operations (based on our FY18 63$/bbl Brent forecast). Upcoming exploration and appraisal includes the ‘A’ prospect (contingent on farm-out); Holmwood-1, which is expected to be drilled in 2017 (fully carried); and North Kelsey and Biscathorpe, which are expected in H117 (both contingent on farm-out).

Valuation: Shale momentum

Our updated valuation for Egdon incorporates fund-raise proceeds and the notional value for the 14th round UK shale licence awards on a dollars per acre basis. The net result is broadly neutral, with our conventional RENAV standing at 22.3p/share. However, we see a material increase in the unconventional valuation, which now includes a dollars per acre value for 14th round licence awards. This moves from 22p/share to 25.7p/share (+16.8%).

Balance sheet strength

Through a combination of 22.2m shares placed with HEYCO International (an existing shareholder and subsidiary of HEYCO Energy Group), and an open offer issue of 15.2m shares at 13.5p/share, Egdon has raised £5.06m (gross).

The net proceeds are to be used to:

Progress the development of the Wressle oil field

Progress the company’s 14th round licence evaluations

Progress the ‘A’ prospect to drillable status

Make targeted investments with the view of increasing production and cash flow

Review and target other value-creating opportunities

It is our understanding that HEYCO is a strategic investor with expertise in conventional and unconventional oil and gas. Subsidiaries of HEYCO hold five permits in Spain, one permit in France and many hundreds of leases in the United States. HEYCO also has domestic oil and gas experience, with subsidiaries of the group having owned interests in operated and non-operated assets in the UK including participation in the discovery of the Avington field. We believe HEYCO’s appetite for equity at Egdon’s current market valuation helps validate the equity investment case.

Post the newly completed funding round, Egdon will have c £7.0m of cash on its balance sheet and no debt, making it the largest unlevered UK listed shale gas play.

Conventional portfolio: Immediate focus on Wressle

The 2014 Wressle oil discovery was tested in 2015 at combined gross flow rate of 700b/d. The discovery has since been ascribed gross 2P oil reserves of 0.62mmbbl and gross 2P gas reserves of 0.2bcf by independent reserve auditor, ERC Equipoise. Incremental to reserves, a substantial contingent resource has been confirmed in the Penistone Flags reservoir with 2C 1.53mmbbls and 2.0bcf of gas – this is expected to be monetised following the start of production from the Ashover Grit reservoir (which is included in 2P). Egdon expects first oil in early 2017, and we assume production ramp-up over Q217 in our forecasts. Management estimates initial production at 500b/d gross and 125b/d net to Egdon’s 25% interest.

In September 2016, Union Jack acquired a 3.34% interest in Wressle from Europa for £0.6m, implying a gross 100% licence value of £17.9m. This is broadly in line with our gross DCF value of $21.4m (£17.4m at current exchange rate). This was followed by a farm-in to Wressle by Upland Resources, announced on 24 November 2016. The implied valuation of this transaction was £18.5m gross, including contingent consideration.

Growing shale position

Our updated UK onshore shale valuation includes acreage awarded in the 14th onshore oil and gas licensing round. The new licences total a gross area of 281,979 acres located in the East Midlands and Cleveland Basins. Over the last 24 months net shale acreage has increased 3.5 times to over 200,000 acres and mean net undiscovered GIIP 2.6 times to 47.5tcf.

Exhibit 1: Net shale acreage increase

Exhibit 2: Increase in mean undiscovered GIIP

Source: Egdon

Source: Egdon

Exhibit 1: Net shale acreage increase

Source: Egdon

Exhibit 2: Increase in mean undiscovered GIIP

Source: Egdon

We flag that our valuation of this acreage is highly uncertain at this time as there are no UK domestic shale commercial analogues. We expect risk and uncertainty to reduce over 2017 as Third Energy drills and fracks the KM-8 well in North Yorkshire (approval currently subject to judicial review). As it stands, we use a dollars per acre valuation based on historic UK shale transactions and adjust downwards given the recent precedent of planning approval delays. We currently use a unit valuation of $400/acre (transaction values range from $200/acre to $2,000/acre) – a full breakdown of our UK shale valuation is provided below.

Valuation

The key updates since our last published valuation are:

Inclusion of placing and open offer net proceeds, and associated increase in share count.

Inclusion of 14th round net acreage awards in valuation.

Downwards adjustment of UK shale dollars per acre valuation to reflect recent planning-related delays; this moves from $500/acre to $400/acre but we flag that there is a significant degree of uncertainty to this figure.

No material changes to Wressle first oil, which remains in early 2017 (we assume Q217 in our forecasts).

As can be seen in our RENAV below, conventional producing assets constitute a small part of RENAV at 3.7p/share (including cash and net of G&A) and the bulk value of our conventional valuation lies in appraisal and development (18.5p/share).

As mentioned above, we believe the company’s most valuable conventional assets are the ‘A’ exploration prospect (risked 7.0p/share) and Biscathorpe prospect (risked 7.2p/share). In addition to this, we provide an indicative valuation for Egdon’s shale acreage at (25.7p/share).

Exhibit 3: Egdon updated RENAV

Assets

Country/

WI

GCoS

CCoS

Net

NPV/boe

NPV

Risked

$1.3/£, shares 258m

licence

%

%

%

mboe

$/boe

$m

/share (p)

Net (debt) cash post fund raise

8.8

2.62

G&A

-1.6

-0.47

Production

Avington

UK

27%

100%

100%

0.10

6.8

0.7

0.21

Keddington

UK

45%

100%

100%

0.09

6.1

0.5

0.16

Ceres

UK

10%

100%

100%

0.23

2.7

0.6

0.19

Wressle (Ashover Grit)

UK

25%

100%

90%

0.15

26.3

3.5

1.0

Core NAV

12.6

3.7

Exploration

North Kelsey

UK

80%

24%

50%

3.88

17.0

7.9

2.4

Louth

UK

65%

40%

50%

0.85

12.7

2.2

0.6

Wressle (upside)

UK

25%

50%

50%

0.38

19.8

1.9

0.6

Broughton

UK

25%

45%

50%

0.11

19.8

0.5

0.1

Biscathorpe

UK

53%

40%

50%

7.36

16.5

24.3

7.2

Holmwood

UK

18%

30%

50%

1.03

12.7

2.0

0.6

A prospect*

UK

50%

52%

50%

12.65

7.2

23.6

7.0

Appraisal & exploration NAV

 

 

 

 

 

 

62.3

18.5

RENAV

 

 

 

 

 

 

74.8

22.3

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Working interest after assumed farm-in (current working interest 100%)

In addition to our conventional valuation above, we include a dollars per acre valuation from unconventional resources. This is broken down by licence below.

Exhibit 4: Egdon net prospective shale acreage

Location

Location/Basin

Licence

Interest

Net acres

$/acre

Value ($m)

p/share

Gainsborough Trough

East Midlands

PL161-2

100%

4,448

400

1.78

0.5

Gainsborough Trough

East Midlands

PEDL043

100%

14,085

400

5.63

1.7

Gainsborough Trough

East Midlands

PEDL169

20%

3,064

400

1.23

0.4

Gainsborough Trough

East Midlands

PEDL037

100%

2,471

400

0.99

0.3

Gainsborough Trough

East Midlands

PEDL011

100%

1,483

400

0.59

0.2

Edale Shelf

East Midlands

PEDL202

100%

20,806

400

8.32

2.5

Edale Shelf

East Midlands

PEDL001

100%

2,718

400

1.09

0.3

Croxteth

Bowland Basin

PEDL191

100%

16,309

400

6.52

1.9

Manchester

Bowland Basin

PEDL039

100%

741

400

0.30

0.1

Manchester

Bowland Basin

EXL253

100%

741

400

0.30

0.1

Gainsborough Trough

East Midlands

PEDL139/PEDL140

14.5%

8,621

1,000

8.62

2.6

Gainsborough Trough

East Midlands

PEDL209

30%

4,744

400

1.90

0.6

Widmerpool Gulf

East Midlands

PEDL201

45.0%

8,896

400

3.56

1.1

Cleveland Basin

Cleveland Basin

PEDL068

68%

6,016

400

2.41

0.7

Gainsborough Trough

East Midlands

PL161/162 Option

50%

15,116

400

6.05

1.8

Edale Shelf

East Midlands

PEDL130

100%

5,436

400

2.17

0.6

Humber

East Midlands

PEDL130

25%

9,884

400

3.95

1.2

Gainsborough North West JV

East Midlands

PEDL273

15.00%

7,265

400

2.91

0.9

Gainsborough South JV

East Midlands

PEDL305

15.00%

5,300

400

2.12

0.6

Gainsborough East JV 1

East Midlands

PEDL316

15.00%

4,114

400

1.65

0.5

Widmerpool 1

East Midlands

PEDL306

30.00%

14,159

400

5.66

1.7

Cloughton Area

Cleveland Basin

PEDL343

17.50%

4,757

400

1.90

0.6

Stainmore Trough

Cleveland Basin

PEDL259

49.99%

17,170

400

6.87

2.0

Humber Basin 1

East Midlands

PEDL334

60.00%

24,315

400

9.73

2.9

Total

 

 

 

202,661

10,200

86

25.7

Source: Edison Investment Research, Egdon Resources

Financials

Our short-term financial forecasts assume Wressle first oil in H117, which drives a step up in production to a forecast 233boe/d in CY18 and a material increase in operational cash flow to £2.2m (Edison $63/bbl CY18 forecast). We expect cash generated from operations to be re-invested in appraisal or development of contingent resources as well as in progressing the company’s net shale acreage position. Egdon is actively pursuing farm-down and divestment of non-core assets to manage cash resource and risk exposure.

Exhibit 5: Financial summary

£000's

2015

2016

2017

2018

July

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

2,068

1,586

2,493

4,529

Cost of Sales

(5,131)

(1,287)

(1,079)

(1,132)

Gross Profit

(3,063)

299

1,414

3,396

EBITDA

 

(4,015)

(733)

214

2,196

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

(4,539)

(2,652)

(990)

712

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

(4,539)

(2,652)

(990)

712

Net Interest

(2)

(34)

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

(4,540)

(2,686)

(990)

712

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

(4,540)

(2,686)

(990)

712

Tax

0

0

0

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(4,540)

(2,686)

(990)

712

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(4,540)

(2,686)

(990)

712

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

221

221

246

258

EPS - normalised (p)

 

(2.1)

(1.2)

(0.4)

0.3

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p)

 

(2.0)

(1.2)

(0.4)

0.3

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

(2.1)

(1.2)

(0.4)

0.3

Dividend per share (p)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

-148.2

18.8

56.7

75.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

-194.2

-46.2

8.6

48.5

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

-219.5

-167.2

-39.7

15.7

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

26,703

27,053

27,119

28,715

Intangible Assets

17,864

18,370

18,370

21,450

Tangible Assets

8,838

8,683

8,749

7,265

Investments

0

0

0

0

Current Assets

 

8,120

5,270

9,021

8,137

Stocks

0

0

0

0

Debtors

2,889

2,541

2,541

2,541

Cash

5,180

2,679

6,430

5,546

Other

50

50

50

50

Current Liabilities

 

(941)

(1,085)

(1,085)

(1,085)

Creditors

(941)

(1,085)

(1,085)

(1,085)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

(1,827)

(1,803)

(1,803)

(1,803)

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

(1,827)

(1,803)

(1,803)

(1,803)

Net Assets

 

32,054

29,435

33,252

33,964

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

(1,437)

(159)

214

2,196

Net Interest

(0)

0

0

0

Tax

0

0

0

0

Capex

(3,255)

(2,379)

(1,269)

(3,080)

Acquisitions/disposals

78

0

0

0

Equity Financing

0

0

4,807

0

Other cash flow

35

8

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(4,580)

(2,529)

3,752

(884)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

(9,667)

(5,180)

(2,679)

(6,430)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Other

(93)

(28)

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

(5,180)

(2,679)

(6,430)

(5,546)

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

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Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Egdon Resources and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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