Foresight Autonomous Holdings — Update 15 November 2016

Foresight Autonomous Holdings — Update 15 November 2016

Foresight Autonomous Holdings

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Foresight Autonomous Holdings

Rail Vision completes successful Trenitalia test

Increased RV stake/test success for Rail Vision

Software

15 November 2016

Price

NIS2.11

Market cap

NIS154m

Net cash (NISm) at 30 June 2016

19.4

Shares in issue

73.1m

Warrants in issue

32.1m

Code

FRST

Primary exchange

TASE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

Business description

Foresight Autonomous (FRST) is a development-stage technology company in Israel developing ADAS systems based on technology developed by its parent company and the Israeli military. FRST also has a 32.0% stake in Rail Vision, which is looking to sell its first rail ADAS system in 2017.

Analysts

Anna Bossong

+44 (0)20 3077 5737

Richard Jeans

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Foresight has announced that Rail Vision (RV) has completed a trial of the infrastructure inspection capabilities of its advanced driver assistance system with Italian rail operator, Trenitaila. Foresight also announced the recent completion of a capital injection into Rail Vision, which totalled $0.822m, to increase its stake by 18.5% to 32.0%. This is close to our Q416 assumption of an increase in stake to 31.5% and with the additional shares acquired at the same advantageous per share purchase price. We see the success in these tests as a positive step towards RV’s goal of completing the first sales of its train vision system in Q317 and generating ongoing revenues from infrastructure inspections. We accordingly see this news as supportive of our share valuation of NIS3.15, as per our initiation report of 27 September 2016.

Year
end

Revenue (NISm)

EBITDA* (NISm)

PBT*
(NISm)

EPS*
(NIS)

P/E
(x)

DPS
(NIS)

12/16e

0.0

(8.4)

(8.7)

(0.12)

0.0

N/A

12/17e

0.0

(11.3)

(14.7)

(0.20)

0.0

N/A

12/18e

0.6

(13.6)

(16.0)

(0.22)

0.0

N/A

12/19e

6.0

(11.8)

(13.3)

(0.18)

0.0

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, share-based payments.

Although lasting only a few days, RV’s first round of tests with Italy’s primary rail operator, Trenitalia, enabled it to demonstrate the ability of its track inspection equipment to meet its objectives in terms of distance effectiveness, feasibility in infrastructure inspection and ability to operate in adverse weather and night conditions. The system underwent safety system tests (although not automated braking, which will be the subject of other tests) and was able to gather data on signalling systems, bridges and track infrastructure, including the condition of electrical cables. RV’s aim to enable ordinary trains to undertake track inspection represents a step forward for the rail industry, which currently relies on either specialist track infrastructure equipment or manual inspection to check the state of the tracks and surrounding infrastructure. As such, we expect demand to be driven by the ability for rail operators to both reduce inspection costs and attain close to real-time awareness of potential infrastructure issues. The company intends to conduct additional tests with Trenitalia, as well as with prominent clients worldwide.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Disclaimer

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

EDISON ISRAEL DISCLAIMER

Disclosure regarding the scheme to enhance the awareness of investors to public companies in the technology and biomed sectors that are listed on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange and participate in the scheme (hereinafter respectively “the Scheme”, “TASE”, “Participant” and/or “Participants”). Edison Investment Research (Israel) Ltd, the Israeli subsidiary of Edison Investment Research Ltd (hereinafter respectively “Edison Israel” and “Edison”), has entered into an agreement with the TASE for the purpose of providing research analysis (hereinafter “the Agreement”), regarding the Participants and according to the Scheme (hereinafter “the Analysis” or “Analyses”). The Analysis will be distributed and published on the TASE website (Maya), Israel Security Authority (hereinafter “the ISA”) website (Magna), and through various other distribution channels. The Analysis for each participant will be published at least four times a year, after publication of quarterly or annual financial reports, and shall be updated as necessary after publication of an immediate report with respect to the occurrence of a material event regarding a Participant. As set forth in the Agreement, Edison Israel is entitled to fees for providing its investment research services. The fees shall be paid by the Participants directly to the TASE, and TASE shall pay the fees directly to Edison. Subject to the terms and principals of the Agreement, the Annual fees that Edison Israel shall be entitled to for each Participant shall be in the range of $35,000-50,000. As set forth in the Agreement and subject to its terms, the Analyses shall include a description of the Participant and its business activities, which shall inter alia relate to matters such as: shareholders; management; products; relevant intellectual property; the business environment in which the Participant operates; the Participant's standing in such an environment including current and forecasted trends; a description of past and current financial positions of the Participant; and a forecast regarding future developments in and of such a position and any other matter which in the professional view of the Edison (as defined below) should be addressed in a research report (of the nature published) and which may affect the decision of a reasonable investor contemplating an investment in the Participant's securities. To the extent it is relevant, the Analysis shall include a schedule of scientific analysis of an expert in the field of life sciences. An "equity research abstract" shall accompany each Equity Research Report, describing the main points addressed. The full scope reports and reports where the investment case has materially changed will include a thorough analysis and discussion. Short update notes, where the investment case has not materially changed, will include a summary valuation discussion. The Agreement with TASE regarding the participation of Edison in the scheme for the research analysis of public companies does not and shall not constitute an approval or consent on the part of TASE or the ISA or any other exchange on which securities of the Company are listed, or any other securities’ regulatory authority which regulates the issuance of securities by the Company to the content of the Report or to the recommendation contained therein. A summary of this report is also published in the Hebrew language. In the event of any contradiction, inconsistency, discrepancy, ambiguity or variance between the English Report and the Hebrew summary of said Report, the English version shall prevail; and a note to this effect shall appear in any Hebrew summary of a Report. Edison is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. According to Article 12.3.2, Chapter 12 of the Conduct of Business Sourcebook, Edison, which produces or disseminates non-independent research, must ensure that it: 1) is clearly identified as a marketing communication; and 2) contains a clear and prominent statement that (or, in the case of an oral recommendation, to the effect that) it: a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research; and b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. The financial promotion rules apply to non-independent research as though it were a marketing

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Research: Industrials

Carr’s Group — Update 14 November 2016

Carr’s Group

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