G3 Group — Update 29 July 2016

G3 Group — Update 29 July 2016

G3 Group

Analyst avatar placeholder

Written by

G3 Group

Management says FY17 KOM targets to be met

Industrials

NXT Company Spotlight

29 July 2016

Price

NZ$0.81

Market cap

NZ$44.3m

Share price graph

Share details

Code

GGL

Listing

NXT

Shares in issue (m)

54.5

Business description

G3 Group operates three principal business divisions: document and data management in NZ and Australia, a unique UK-based tourist souvenir business and a business mail operation in NZ.

Bull

Experienced board and management with the broad-based skills necessary to drive the acquisition strategy.

<Insert text or delete this table row>

The businesses are currently profitable and there has been a track record of profitability and growth.

<Insert text or delete this table row>

G3 has successfully acquired and integrated a number of businesses, especially in the last two years.

<Insert text or delete this table row>

Newly acquired Formfile business has wide market appeal in Australia despite its relatively small size.

Expansion from business mail in NZ has begun with the Rocket Mail data management acquisition.

Bear

Dependent on access agreements in NZ and the UK where conditions may change and have an adverse impact on the business.

<Insert text or delete this table row>

Transformation to new digital media is underway but is still early stage.

<Insert text or delete this table row>

The nature of the current business mix limits the EBITDA margin to 10%, but the planned move into the digital arena and further expansion into document and data management should enable G3 to bolt on higher-margin businesses.

<Insert text or delete this table row>

Analysts

Moira Daw

+61 (0)2 9258 1161

Finola Burke

+61 (0)2 9258 1161

G3 Group (GGL) operates three businesses: document and data management in NZ and Australia, a unique UK-based tourist souvenir business and a business mail operation in NZ. The audited FY16 financial results showed NPAT of NZ$2.14m, which was 12.2% ahead of FY15 and included a PBT contribution of NZ$0.04m from Formfile Records Management Group, acquired on 20 January 2016. It also included costs associated with IPO and the introduction of an employee share scheme, totalling NZ$0.227m and NZ$0.345m, respectively. The key operating milestones (KOMs) performance for Q117 is below expectations for FY17 due to the short-term impact of a postage price increase and seasonal softness in the UK market.

Increased sales of lower-margin products depress gross margins

In Q117 GGL experienced an increase in revenue from the NZ business mail segment because its business mail customers brought forward the purchase of low-margin postal stock ahead of a 1 July 2016 price increase. As a result, GGL’s overall gross margins declined from 22.9% achieved in FY16 to 19.7% in Q117. The full year gross margin target is 22%. Management believes that purchases of postal stock will normalise during Q217 resulting in improved gross margins for the remainder of the year. A further result was that inventory days increased to 34.6 days compared with the FY17 KOM target of 22 days. Management advises that it expects to achieve all KOM targets for the year ending 31 March 2017.

Document management doing well

Management reports that the NZ and Australian document management businesses (Filecorp and Formfile) have performed well during Q117. The performance of this division is expected to improve following the acquisition of Tidy Files, a small Melbourne-based supplier of specialist filing products.

Valuation: Trading at 12.4x FY16 EV/EBITDA

The previously announced capital raising (13 July 2016) to be undertaken using the equity crowdfunding marketplace Snowball Effect has been cancelled. The company has not provided any further information on its capital raising intentions. The current share price of NZ$0.81 implies a market capitalisation of NZ$44.3m and an enterprise value (EV) of NZ$54.2m (using 31 March 2016 net debt of NZ$9.9m). This translates to an FY16 EV/EBITDA multiple of c 12.4x.

Historical financials

Year
end

Revenue
(NZ$m)

NPAT
(NZ$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/14

32.3

1.4

3.0

0.0

N/A

N/A

03/15

40.5

1.9

4.8

0.0

N/A

N/A

03/16

43.9

2.1

4.1

0.0

19.8

N/A

Source: G3 Group. Note: *EPS refers to diluted earnings per share.

Business update

GGL reported the following highlights in its Q117 business update:

Both the NZ and Australian document management businesses performed well during the quarter.

Formfile expects to sell its Digital Office workflow to Tidy File’s niche customers, who operate in the education and medical sectors.

In the UK, the start to the summer season has been slower than expected for the tourist mail business. Visitor numbers were down 1% in May 2016 compared with May 2015 and the spend fell by 8% for the same period. For the rolling 12 months ended 31 May 2016, total visitor numbers were up 4% but holiday visitors (being those visitors most likely to buy tourist stamps) were down 1%.

The UK business is expected to remain relatively flat during the remainder of the summer season. However, the UK-based GGL team expects that the strategies it is putting in place now will show benefits later in the financial year.

The NZ-based SEND business benefited in Q117 from the ongoing roll out of a large customer.

Rocket Mail (acquired in April 2016), which provides digital delivery of invoices and marketing material, has performed well against the expectations formed during the due diligence process.

Outlook

Management advised that it is “well pleased” with all operations, but warned that it is cautious about the performance of the UK business during the summer season.

The company expects to continue to investigate the acquisition of complementary and digital-based businesses.

Key operating milestones (KOMs) Q117

In the disclosure document, GGL defined its KOMs as:

gross margin: group revenue less cost of sales as percentage of revenue;

operating margin: revenue less gross margin less the direct variable costs of production as percentage of revenue;

days' sales of inventory: the number of days’ sales it will take to clear the inventory; and

number of units processed: encompasses all product units sold including stamps, postage permits, envelopes and filing products.

On 31 May 2016, GGL released to the market a ‘review of operating milestones’ made in conjunction with its NXT adviser. This review stated that due to recent changes in the business mix, the KOM “number of units processed” metric is no longer relevant and will be discontinued from 31 March 2016.

Exhibit 1: G3 Group’s key operating metrics

2015

2016

2016

Q117

2017

Actual

Target

Actual

Actual

Target

Gross margin (%)

19.5

21.9

22.9

19.7

22.0

Operating margin (%)

17.6

20.1

20.8

18.3

20.2

Days’ sales of inventory (# of days)

19.0

22.0

20.9

34.6

22.0

Number of units processed* (m)

60.32

62.1

58.5

N/A

N/A

Source: G3 Group. Note: *The number of units processed has been removed as a KOM after a review released to the NXT market on 31 May 2016. All other KOMs are unchanged.

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
This report has been commissioned by NZX Limited (“NZX”) and prepared and issued by Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (“Edison”). This report has been prepared independently of NZX and does not represent the opinions of NZX. NZX makes no representation in relation to acquiring, disposing of or otherwise dealing in the securities referred to in this report.

All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however neither NZX nor Edison guarantees the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in this report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Australia and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. This research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is not registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison US does not offer or provide personalised advice. This research is distributed in New Zealand by Edison). Edison is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison Investment Research Limited. Edison is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. The distribution of this document in New Zealand is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the New Zealand Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. Edison publishes information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested, for informational purposes only, and this information reflects our sincere opinions. This report is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, this report should not be construed as a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities referred to in this report. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, estimates of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. To the maximum extent permitted by law, NZX, Edison, either of their affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Erytech Pharma — Update 29 July 2016

Erytech Pharma

Continue Reading

Subscribe to Edison

Get access to the very latest content matched to your personal investment style.

Sign up for free