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Global Bioenergies — Update 18 November 2016

Global Bioenergies — Update 18 November 2016

Global Bioenergies

Analyst avatar placeholder

Written by

Global Bioenergies

String of successes and new financing

Trading update

Alternative energy

18 November 2016

Price

€24.02

Market cap

€77m

Net debt (€m) at 30 June 2016

0.7

Shares in issue

3.2m

Free float

40%

Code

ALGBE

Primary exchange

Alternext

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(17.2)

(8.1)

(23.9)

Rel (local)

(18.2)

(9.9)

(17.8)

52-week high/low

€33.0

€17.9

Business description

Global Bioenergies is in the scale-up stage to convert renewable resources into isobutene, the first of a number of olefins. The process will be out-licensed to partners once it is proven in an industrial pilot

Next events

FY16 results

March 2017

Analysts

Catharina Hillenbrand-Saponar

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Roger Johnston

+44 (0)20 3077 5722

Global Bioenergies is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Global Bioenergies (GBE) has delivered a string of industrial and commercial successes, with completion of construction at the Leuna plant, more progress on second-generation feedstock development and new potential clients. It has secured significant new financing and delivered reasonable H1 results. Our valuation remains unchanged at €37-56/share.

Year
end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/14

3.2

(9.2)

(2.9)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/15

2.2

(12.2)

(4.0)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/16e

2.2

(12.1)

(3.4)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/17e

4.4

(10.9)

(3.0)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Forecasts updated to reflect results & new financing

GBE has reported H116 results with an operating loss of €6.4m, net loss of €6.7m and operating cash outflow of €5.0m. This compared to our forecast (pre-financing) of an operating loss of €10.4m, net loss of €9.2m and operating cash outflow of €9.7m for 2016. Period-end net debt stood at €0.7m. The company has also announced an €11.25m convertible bond issue that will underpin its upcoming development, with flexible drawdown conditions. We have adjusted our forecast to reflect slightly more conservative assumptions, as well as the new financing. Our EBIT loss increases to €11.7m (from €10.4m) and net loss/ share to -€3.4 (-€2.9).

String of commercial and industrial successes

The company has shown impressive progress on commercialisation, with several new, large industrial companies taking up isobutene test batches and two doing so with a view to becoming future clients of the first joint venture, IBN-One. We interpret the award of engineering contracts for IBN-One to a very solid consortium as good progress that underpins confidence in execution. Production is expected to start in 2018. Meanwhile, the company has produced first isobutene from agricultural residues in collaboration with Clariant and announced a new collaboration with Preem, Sekab and Sveaskog for production of high-performance fuels from feedstocks based on forestry residues. These second-generation feedstock developments are important for diversification, cost reduction and reduction of dependency on commodities. They are also significant in terms of opening a new economic value chain, forestry. Importantly, it has now completed construction of the Leuna plant.

Valuation: €37-56/share unchanged

We value GBE on a DCF methodology with risk-weighted cash flows to reflect the early-stage nature of the business. Our valuation range remains unchanged at €37-56/share. We note that the steps delivered in H1 are indicative of tangible commercialisation progress, which should help de-risk cash flows. Further progress on new feedstock development might reduce the dependence on commodities prices.

Consistent progress and new financing

H1 results and new financing

Global Bioenergies has reported H1 results that show disciplined cost and cash management with consistent expansion. The company reported an operating loss of €6.4m and net loss of €6.7m. This compares to our FY16 forecast operating and net loss of €10.4m and €9.2m pre-financing, respectively (see below for our updated forecasts).

The build-up of the Leuna demonstration plant is progressing in line with plan and budget, which is showing through in the results. Capex was €3.6m, chiefly for Leuna. With this, the bulk of investment for the plant is now completed. The Leuna investment is financed by a €4.4m bank loan, as well as €5.7m of government subsidies. Of that, €3.7m is still to be received before the end of 2017. Correspondingly, gross cash stood at €9.1m at the end of June, vs €10.4m at the end of 2015. With this, the company has tipped into net debt of €0.7m. GBE has announced an €11.25m convertible bond (with mandatory conversion into equity) launched in 15 successive tranches with Bracknor Investments, for the further development and scaling up of the isobutene programme, as well as development of the other follow-on programmes, ie butadiene and propylene. It also intends to use the funding for further feedstock diversification and commercialisation. In total, this could provide the company with €18m of cash, through €11.25m from the convertible/warrants and an additional €6.75m from the potential option conversion. It is worth noting that GBE can dictate the rhythm of the various tranches, as well as suspending drawdown. This gives it good flexibility to adapt financing to its speed of development, while optimising the cost of financing. We see this as a step-up of funding that is illustrative of the move to the next level, which is increased industrial scale and commercialisation.

Exhibit 1: H1 results

H115

H116

% change y-o-y

FY15

Revenues

1.5

1.5

2.2

2.2

EBITDA

(5.5)

(5.8)

4.7

(11.0)

EBIT

(6.0)

(6.4)

7.7

(12.0)

Net loss

(4.3)

(6.7)

(36.4)

(10.3)

Operating cash outflow

(8.8)

(5.0)

(43.5)

(8.8)

Capex

(3.6)

(4.5)

24.7

(4.5)

Net debt

0.0

0.7

N/M

0.0

Source: Global Bioenergies, Edison Investment Research

Updating our forecast

We have updated our forecast to reflect the following:

■

a more conservative view on revenues: we have pushed the first upfront payment for IBN-One into 2017, as we believe a few weeks of change to the start of the Leuna plant, to which it is connected, could effectively make a difference between revenue being booked in 2016 or 2017;

■

higher capex to reflect the run rate for Leuna; and

■

the new convertible and equity financing.

With this, our revenue forecast for 2016 is €2.2m (from €4.7m). This feeds through to an EBIT loss of €11.7m (from €10.4m) and net loss of €10.5m (from €9.2m). The negative cash flow impact of our increased capex, now €5.3m (from €1.4m) is compensated for by the positive impact of the additional equity financing of €5.5m. As a result, we now forecast a net cash outflow after financing of €5.1m for 2016 (from €4.5m). Consequently, we forecast GBE to close 2016 with €5m of gross cash and net debt of €5m.

Exhibit 2: Revised estimates

€m

2016e

2017e

Old

New

Old

New

Revenues

4.7

2.2

5.4

4.4

EBIT

(10.4)

(11.7)

(9.1)

(10.4)

EPS (€)

(2.93)

(3.35)

(2.31)

(2.95)

Source: Edison Investment Research

String of commercial successes

GBE continues to make good progress and we can now see it moving from an industrial towards a commercial focus. The company has signed a raft of commercial agreements, notably:

■

access rights to GBE’s isooctane technology from Leuna and IBN-One for speciality fuels applications for Aspen;

■

collaboration with Preem, Sekab and Sveaskog for production for the production of high-performance fuels from feedstocks based on forestry residues. Beyond being yet another point of evidence for second-generation feedstocks, this is a particularly important deal as it opens up a potential new market. The forestry sector is struggling with structural decline and the potential to build up a new value chain such as this is significant. It seems that GBE’s technology could become a key component in such a value chain;

■

delivery of first batches of isobutene (produced at the Pomacle plant) to Arlanxeo, a rubber producer for tyre applications, and to Clariant for other speciality applications; and

■

winning a potential first client: L’Oréal will test initial isobutene batches in the context of a 44-month industrial and commercial partnership programme between GBE, Cristal Union and L’Oréal, with a view to becoming a potential customer of IBN-One. This is within the broader co-operation with L’Oréal and IBN-One and GBE, which is financed by Ademe with €9m.

Meanwhile, GBE has awarded front-end engineering contracts for the IBN-One plant to a consortium including Technip and IPSB, a speciality engineer in the sugar and biotech space. The front-end engineering phase will run for 12 months. We view the choice of engineering contractors as a very solid one, with a major blue-chip name complemented by a strong specialist in IBN-One’s particular niche. This shows good execution and swift progress on commercialisation and, as such, is a signal that underpins confidence, in our view. The start of construction will be determined in conjunction with the ongoing development of Leuna, which remains the key focus. With Leuna, there is good progress as evidenced by the very recent announcement that construction is now complete.

Further progress on feedstock development

GBE has made further important progress on second-generation feedstock development. It has achieved first production of isobutene from wheat straw hydrolysate at pre-industrial scale at the Pomacle site in collaboration with Clariant. Clariant has produced second-generation sugars from agricultural residues, which GBE has then used as isobutene production feedstock. This follows the recent announcement of a collaboration with Preem, Sekab and Sveaskog, all Swedish, for the development of high-performance fuels on the basis of forest feedstocks.

These are yet further steps that illustrate that the company is making strides in firstly diversifying feedstocks, secondly reducing feedstock cost and last, but not least, moving towards reducing the dependency on commodity (oil/sugar) spreads.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

€m

2013

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

Year end 31 December

FGAAP

FGAAP

FGAAP

FGAAP

FGAAP

PROFIT & LOSS

Grants

0.03

1.36

0.86

1.20

0.90

Other revenue

2.43

1.81

1.37

1.00

3.50

Revenue

 

 

2.46

3.17

2.23

2.20

4.40

Operating Expenses

(6.36)

(7.85)

(6.97)

(7.49)

(7.82)

Gross Profit

(3.90)

(4.69)

(4.75)

(5.29)

(3.42)

EBITDA

(6.55)

(8.99)

(11.04)

(10.60)

(8.82)

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

(6.66)

(9.50)

(12.01)

(11.67)

(10.42)

Amortisation

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Exceptionals

(0.00)

0.00

0.11

0.00

0.00

Other

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Operating Profit

(6.67)

(9.50)

(11.90)

(11.67)

(10.42)

Net Interest

0.13

0.29

(0.26)

(0.45)

(0.50)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(6.54)

(9.21)

(12.16)

(12.12)

(10.92)

Tax

1.41

1.59

1.99

1.60

1.65

Minority interests

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Net income (Adj NP)

(5.12)

(7.62)

(10.29)

(10.53)

(9.27)

Net income (Reported)

(5.12)

(7.62)

(10.18)

(10.53)

(9.27)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

2.5

2.6

2.6

3.1

3.1

EPS - normalised fully diluted (€)

 

 

(2.05)

(2.93)

(3.96)

(3.35)

(2.95)

EPS - (Reported) (€)

 

 

(2.05)

(2.93)

(3.91)

(3.35)

(2.95)

Gross Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

1.76

3.97

7.43

11.68

12.52

Intangible Assets

0.09

0.14

0.11

0.11

0.11

Tangible Assets

1.58

3.72

7.18

11.43

12.27

Investments

0.09

0.11

0.14

0.14

0.14

Current Assets

 

 

25.72

20.65

14.78

9.78

9.39

Stocks

2.02

0.29

0.30

0.21

0.21

Debtors

0.00

0.00

0.34

0.52

0.94

Cash

23.70

15.66

10.42

5.33

4.50

Other

0.00

4.71

3.73

3.73

3.73

Current Liabilities

 

 

(0.72)

(2.40)

(3.18)

(1.21)

(1.93)

Creditors

(0.72)

(2.40)

(3.18)

(1.21)

(1.93)

Short term borrowings

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(3.74)

(5.64)

(11.10)

(11.13)

(11.13)

Long term borrowings

(2.46)

(4.16)

(10.44)

(10.44)

(10.44)

Other long term liabilities

(1.28)

(1.48)

(0.66)

(0.69)

(0.69)

Net Assets

 

 

23.02

16.58

7.93

9.12

8.85

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(4.33)

(8.01)

(8.84)

(11.51)

(7.38)

Net Interest

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Tax

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Capex

(0.79)

(2.80)

(4.49)

(5.33)

(2.44)

Acquisitions/disposals

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Financing

21.73

1.07

1.81

11.75^

9.00

Dividends

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Net Cash Flow

16.62

(9.74)

(11.52)

(5.09)

(0.82)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(4.62)

(21.24)

(11.50)

0.02

5.11

Other

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

FX adjustments

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(21.24)

(11.50)

0.02

5.11

5.94

Source: Global Bioenergies and Edison Investment Research. Note: 2016/17 financing includes convertible funding, which was modelled as an equity transaction assuming the conversion price of €25/share. We assume that three tranches are exercised in 2016 and the remainder in 2017.

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Global Bioenergies and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

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Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

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Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Global Bioenergies and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Research: Investment Companies

The Scottish Investment Trust PLC — Update 18 November 2016

The Scottish Investment Trust PLC

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