GVC Holdings — Exuding confidence – upgrades to come

GVC Holdings — Exuding confidence – upgrades to come

GVC’s H117 results were accompanied by a bullish update for Q317 and positive future indicators. Underlying 20% daily NGR growth in Q317 (to 10 September), combined with continued synergies from the bwin acquisition, should lead to upgrades in consensus estimates. The company is ambitious and well positioned as a consolidator in the gaming industry. Accretive M&A is highly likely in our view. The stock trades appropriately towards the top of its peer group, at consensus 2018e 9.4x EV/EBITDA and 12.9x PE respectively. Our forecasts are currently under review.

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GVC Holdings

Exuding confidence - upgrades to come

H117 results

Travel & Leisure

14 September 2017

Price

799.5p

Market cap

£2,404m

€1.11/£

Net debt (€m) at 30 June 2017

150.7

Shares in issue

300.7m

Free float

94%

Code

GVC

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

Business description

GVC Holdings is a leading e-gaming operator in both B2C and B2B markets with four main product verticals (sports, casino, poker and bingo). About 69% of revenues come from regulated and/or taxed markets. GVC acquired bwin.party digital entertainment (bwin) in February 2016 for €1.51bn.

Analysts

Victoria Pease

+44 (0)20 3077 5740

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

GVC Holdings is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

GVC’s H117 results were accompanied by a bullish update for Q317 and positive future indicators. Underlying 20% daily NGR growth in Q317 (to 10 September), combined with continued synergies from the bwin acquisition, should lead to upgrades in consensus estimates. The company is ambitious and well positioned as a consolidator in the gaming industry. Accretive M&A is highly likely in our view. The stock trades appropriately towards the top of its peer group, at consensus 2018e 9.4x EV/EBITDA and 12.9x PE respectively. Our forecasts are currently under review.

Year
end

Revenue (€m)

EBITDA
(€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/15

247.7

54.1

50.0

76.4

56.0

11.6

6.3

12/16p**

894.6

205.7

121.2

41.5

30.0

21.4

3.4

Note: *Normalised and diluted (EPS) excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Pro forma results include bwin.party as if it were included from 1 January 2016.

H117 net gaming revenues (NGR) grew 10% to €486.2m, with 11% and 8% growth in Sports and Games Brands NGR. Sports Brands gross win margin increased from 9.1% to 9.8% and is currently 10.2% ytd, in line with management’s target of 10%. Games Brands benefited from a 32% increase in partypoker NGR and, apart from bingo, there is significant positive momentum across the gaming segment. Benefiting from scale, volume and synergies, H117 EBITDA margin grew from 24% to 28%.

Current trading in Q317 (to 10 September) is strong, with daily NGR up 12% and underlying daily NGR (excluding Euro 2016) up 20%. Customer migrations have been successful, removing a risk to revenue forecasts. Management has stated that it expects FY17 EBITDA to be comfortably ahead of consensus (€255.9m) and we anticipate upgrades to consensus figures. Additionally, the CEO’s target of doubling EBITDA within four years is significantly more bullish than current market estimates and implies double-digit revenue growth and market share gains.

GVC has strong organic growth prospects, as well as an excellent track record with integration, which is likely to be augmented by M&A at some stage. The stock trades towards the top end of its broader peer group, at 9.4x EV/EBITDA and 12.9x P/E for 2018e. Continued strong cash flow should enable further special dividends.

Disclaimer

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by GVC Holdings and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Disclaimer

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by GVC Holdings and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Research: Financials

Scherzer & Co — Upward NAV trend continues

Scherzer & Co (PZS) was able to leverage the favourable market conditions in H117, generating an EPS of €0.15 (vs €0.04/share loss in H116) and growing NAV by 13.5% to €2.55/share as at end-June. Realised capital gains, higher dividend income and a lower negative balance of value adjustments contributed to the solid result. Although there were no major favourable extra compensatory claim (ECS) rulings in H117, the company maintained an extensive ECS portfolio, which now amounts to €89m or €2.97 per share, providing potential future earnings upside. PZS’s NAV stands at €2.64 as at end-August, in line with its current share price.

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