IG Design — Update 11 July 2016

IG Design — Update 11 July 2016

IG Design

Fiona Orford-Williams

Written by

Fiona Orford-Williams

Director, TMT

IG Design

Extending US reach and range

US acquisition

Care & household goods

11 July 2016

Price

158p

Market cap

£94m

Net debt (£m) at 31 March 2016

17.5

Shares in issue

59.3m

Free float

52%

Code

IGR

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(11.7)

3.3

9.3

Rel (local)

(13.9)

(0.9)

9.1

52-week high/low

192.5p

122.0p

Business description

IG Design Group (formerly International Greetings) is one of the world's leading designers, innovators and manufacturers of gift packaging and greetings, social expression giftware, stationery and creative play products.

Next events

AGM

14 September 2016

Interim results

30 November 2016

Analysts

Fiona Orford-Williams

+44 (0)20 3077 5739

Anne Margaret Crow

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

IG Design is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

IG Design (IGR) has announced the acquisition of Lang Companies for $3.6m in cash. The deal is earnings neutral in FY17e but accretive in FY18e as the synergistic benefits start to flow. Lang has a complementary product range in stationery and giftware and some strong sports-based licences. It also has a design-led culture that should mesh well with IGR’s US operations, which have been gaining momentum. The share price has started to grasp the changing proposition, but has yet to fully reflect it.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/15

229.0

9.6

11.8

1.00

13.5

0.6

03/16

237.0

10.1

13.6

2.50

11.6

1.6

03/17e

268.5

12.2

14.5

3.25

10.9

2.1

03/18e

282.0

14.5

16.0

4.00

9.9

2.5

Note: *PBT and EPS (diluted) are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Adds products, customers, licences and scale

Lang is based in Waukesha, Wisconsin and its product range includes stationery, calendars, mugs, home goods, journals and planners, all with high design content. It has customer base of c 150,000 (top 15 customers account for 50% of sales) with a repeat purchase rate of over 40%. It also sells through its own B2C platform and via catalogue, giving IGR the opportunity to test out these channels on a low-risk, low investment basis. It has licences with leading sports organisations NBA, NFL, MLB (Major League Baseball) and NHL (National Hockey League), which are a useful addition to the group’s strong character licensing portfolio.

Synergistic benefits from FY18e

Lang’s revenues to March 2015 were $34.4m. IGR’s estimate of Lang’s adjusted EBITDA is $1.25m, which, after a working capital adjustment of $1.7m, makes the purchase price a multiple of just over four times. Lang achieves a higher gross margin but a lower net margin than IGR. There should be meaningful buying synergies in FY18e (buying for the FY17 peak season is already done), alongside other de-duplication of costs. Our revised model does not build in any cross-selling benefit yet shows a 4% uplift in forecast EPS in FY18e from 15.4p to 16.0p, despite a tick up in the net finance charge. Management has a good record of achieving fast payback on investments (see our recent report, Grand designs). We anticipate net debt at end FY17e at £17m will be below the prior year-end, reducing to £12.3m by end FY18e (previous estimate £11.0m).

Valuation: Starting to reflect opportunity

The share price has risen 15% in 12 months (up from 31.5p in June 2013) as the market has continued to recognise the group’s transformation from an indebted manufacturer in deflation-prone commodity markets into a confident, global, design-led, efficient partnership supplier to retail channels. The valuation is on a par with US-based home/lifestyle brands (the nearest peers). The strong cash flow and management views on capital allocation indicate a progressive dividend stream.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

2014

2015

2016

2017e

2018e

Year end 31 March

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

224,462

229,025

236,950

268,500

282,000

Cost of Sales

(185,244)

(189,048)

(193,552)

(220,170)

(230,958)

Gross Profit

39,218

39,977

43,398

48,330

51,042

EBITDA

 

 

16,352

16,850

16,505

18,820

21,275

Operating Profit (before amort and except)

 

11,320

12,315

12,909

14,720

16,825

Intangible Amortisation

(576)

(428)

(285)

(335)

(350)

Exceptionals

(2,298)

(1,235)

0

(1,000)

0

Share-based payments

(82)

(623)

(908)

(950)

(950)

Operating Profit

8,364

10,029

11,716

12,435

15,525

Net Interest

(3,177)

(2,726)

(2,763)

(2,520)

(2,300)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

8,143

9,589

10,146

12,200

14,525

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

5,269

7,926

9,861

10,865

14,175

Tax

(1,582)

(1,346)

(2,219)

(3,209)

(4,262)

Profit After Tax (norm)

6,561

8,243

8,835

9,941

11,213

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

3,687

6,580

7,642

7,656

9,913

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

57.5

58.1

58.8

59.3

60.5

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

9.4

12.1

14.0

14.9

16.5

EPS - normalised fully diluted (p)

 

 

9.1

11.8

13.6

14.5

16.0

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

5.2

10.7

12.3

11.9

15.2

Dividend per share (p)

0.0

1.0

2.5

3.3

4.0

Gross Margin (%)

17.5

17.5

18.3

18.0

18.1

EBITDA Margin (%)

7.3

7.4

7.0

7.0

7.5

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

5.0

5.4

5.4

5.5

6.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

67,664

65,688

66,722

68,287

69,487

Intangible Assets

31,950

31,692

32,236

31,901

31,551

Tangible Assets

35,714

33,996

34,486

36,386

37,936

Investments

0

0

0

0

0

Current Assets

 

 

76,261

71,312

75,791

86,415

88,686

Stocks

48,460

46,162

46,006

53,174

54,452

Debtors

19,690

22,304

21,405

24,740

25,335

Cash

8,111

2,846

8,380

8,500

8,900

Other

0

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(51,965)

(45,722)

(48,331)

(53,717)

(52,537)

Creditors

(39,139)

(39,982)

(42,765)

(48,217)

(49,387)

Short term borrowings

(12,826)

(5,740)

(5,566)

(5,500)

(3,150)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(34,799)

(28,694)

(22,810)

(24,356)

(22,356)

Long term borrowings

(32,232)

(26,479)

(20,297)

(20,000)

(18,000)

Other long term liabilities

(2,567)

(2,215)

(2,513)

(4,356)

(4,356)

Net Assets

 

 

57,161

62,584

71,372

76,629

83,281

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

13,724

17,851

20,744

17,350

20,000

Net Interest

(3,221)

(2,775)

(1,961)

(2,520)

(2,300)

Tax

(60)

(1,263)

(1,797)

(3,114)

(3,936)

Capex

(5,291)

(2,100)

(3,191)

(6,000)

(6,000)

Acquisitions/disposals

140

(1,451)

0

(2,769)

0

Financing/Other

1,225

(1,347)

74

0

0

Dividends

(1,014)

(829)

(1,032)

(2,580)

(3,024)

Net Cash Flow

5,503

8,086

12,837

367

4,740

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

42,138

36,947

29,373

17,483

17,000

HP finance leases initiated

296

0

0

0

0

Other

(608)

(512)

(947)

116

10

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

36,947

29,373

17,483

17,000

12,250

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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