La Doria — Recovery expected from H2

La Doria (MI: LD)

Last close As at 28/03/2024

16.46

0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

511m

More on this equity

Research: Consumer

La Doria — Recovery expected from H2

The operating environment remains challenging for La Doria, with sales price deflation, raw material cost inflation and Brexit continuing to feature. FY16 results were in line with expectations, and management still believes a recovery will begin in H217, when the new tomato campaign will start to come through. We roll forward our DCF to commence in 2017 and our fair value increases to €12.59 per share, from €10.99.

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Consumer

La Doria

Recovery expected from H2

FY16 results

Food & beverages

20 March 2017

Price

€9.06

Market cap

€281m

Net debt (€m) at 31 December 2016

104.8

Shares in issue

31.0m

Free float

37%

Code

LD

Primary exchange

Borsa Italia (STAR)

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

3.8

11.8

(30.6)

Rel (local)

(1.9)

4.7

(36.3)

52-week high/low

€13.2

€7.1

Business description

La Doria is the leading manufacturer of private-label preserved vegetables and fruit for the Italian (20% of revenues) and international (80% of revenues) market. It enjoys leading market share positions across its product ranges in the UK, Italy, Germany and Australia.

Next events

Q117 results

12 May 2017

AGM

16 June 2017

H117 results

19 September 2017

Q317 results

14 November 2017

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0) 20 3077 5700

Paul Hickman

+44 (0)20 3681 2501

La Doria is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

The operating environment remains challenging for La Doria, with sales price deflation, raw material cost inflation and Brexit continuing to feature. FY16 results were in line with expectations, and management still believes a recovery will begin in H217, when the new tomato campaign will start to come through. We roll forward our DCF to commence in 2017 and our fair value increases to €12.59 per share, from €10.99.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/15

748.3

57.4

144.6

28.0

6.3

3.1

12/16

653.1

37.3

108.8

18.0

8.3

2.0

12/17e

643.3

32.7

78.1

17.0

11.6

1.9

12/18e

681.9

42.1

99.1

24.0

9.1

2.6

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

FY16 results

In Q4, La Doria witnessed a continuation of the trends seen in the rest of 2016, specifically a deflationary trading environment and weakening of sterling. In addition, cost inflation was a feature. As outlined in September 2016, FY15 was an exceptionally strong year, management witnessed a weakening of performance from FY16 vs FY15, and it expects a further weakening in 2017 before the recovery starts to come through. This should commence in H217 following a better 2017 tomato campaign over the summer (a drop in southern Italian tomato production in 2016 bodes well for 2017 pricing), and should come through fully in the 2018 numbers. We note FY16 performance was still good, with EBITDA margin of 8.6%.

New three-year plan gives continuity

Together with the FY results, La Doria published a new rolling three-year strategic and financial plan. The strategic objectives remain broadly unchanged: the main priority is to expand the higher-margin and less volatile parts of the business to reduce the dependence on the more unpredictable ‘red line’. The target to stabilise overall group margin, added in September, remains a sensible addition given the challenging operating environment. The financial targets represent a small downgrade at the net profit level in relation to the previous three-year rolling plan, which was updated last September. In addition, there is a renewed proposal to utilise a share buyback to enhance liquidity.

Valuation: Remains attractive

Our forecasts remain unchanged and our DCF model, which we have rolled forward to 2017, now points to a fair value of €12.59 per share (€10.99 previously), or 46% upside from the current share price. We calculate that La Doria now trades on 11.6x 2017e P/E and 8.5x 2017e EV/EBITDA, at c 45% and c 17% respective discounts to its private-label peer group.

Updated rolling three-year plan provides continuity

La Doria outlines its financial targets and strategic business plan for a rolling three-year period, usually at the beginning of each financial year.

The new financial targets are very similar to those set out in September 2016. They are revised slightly in light of the FY16 results, as illustrated in Exhibit 1 below. The reduction in sales targets is due to the tough 2016 tomato campaign and the continued deflationary sales environment in La Doria’s main markets. At the EBIT level there is a greater cut owing to raw material cost inflation. That said, it is testament to management’s commitment to stem the volatility of the business and to reduce the overall dependence on the ‘red line’ that a larger cut to EBIT is mitigated throughout the P&L and the net profit targets are cut only slightly. Net profit targets benefit from a lower forecast tax rate. Net debt of €104.8m at end FY16 is better than our forecast of €115.3m, indicating FY16 cash flow was better than expected.

Exhibit 1: Current vs prior company financial targets (2017-18e)

2017e

2018e

€m

Old

New

% chg

Old

New

% chg

Revenue

661.0

644.0

-2.6%

702.0

690.2

-1.7%

EBITDA

50.0

48.0

-4.0%

61.0

59.2

-3.0%

EBIT

37.2

34.9

-6.2%

48.2

46.4

-3.7%

PBT

34.4

33.1

-3.8%

45.7

43.0

-5.9%

Net profit

25.0

25.1

0.4%

33.2

31.7

-4.5%

Net debt

100.4

95.0

-5.4%

84.1

77.0

-8.4%

EBITDA margin (%)

7.6%

7.5%

-0.1%

8.7%

8.6%

-0.1%

EBIT margin (%)

5.6%

5.4%

-0.2%

6.9%

6.7%

-0.1%

Source: La Doria data

La Doria’s strategic objectives remain broadly the same, thus giving the business a solid level of continuity. The new three-year plan provides an explicit objective to stabilise overall group margin, which was a sensible addition (in September) given the tough operating environment. The objectives to pursue development and expand into new regions tie in with the overarching objective of reducing the volatility and seasonality of the business and improving visibility through the development of higher value-added, margin-enhancing products. We note new products include pulses and ready-made sauces. The management will also seek renewed authorisation to purchase treasury shares, thus enabling the company to facilitate market liquidity.

The business plan also provides an updated view on La Doria’s markets. The company’s current slowdown is entirely caused by the poor general environment:

the decline and stagnation of consumption in certain countries, which increases competitive pressures; and

Brexit, which has caused a weakening of sterling and hence a temporary loss of competitiveness for La Doria in certain categories, such as pulses and ready-made soups, where the competition has local production and hence lower costs.

On a more positive note, there was a drop in tomato production in Southern Italy in 2016, which has caused ongoing sector destocking, and hence a recovery in sales prices (and therefore margin) is expected for the 2017 campaign, which will start to come through in the Q417 figures due to its seasonality.

Valuation

La Doria’s share price has slightly outperformed the market over the last three months. It is up 6.9% vs the FTSE MIB index, which is up 5.5%, although the company’s share price has significantly underperformed over the last six and 12 months. On 2017 estimates La Doria trades on 11.6x P/E and 8.5x EV/EBITDA, with a 2.0% dividend yield. This compares to the peer group of private-label and small-cap food manufacturers on 19.9x and 10.3x, or a discount of c 45% and c 17% respectively, which we believe is unwarranted.

Exhibit 2: Benchmark valuation of La Doria relative to peers

Market cap (m)

P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

Dividend yield (%)

2017e

2018e

2017e

2018e

2017e

2018e

Greencore

£1,803.9

16.2

14.5

11.9

9.4

2.3%

2.5%

Ebro Foods

€2,931.9

16.1

15.3

9.0

8.4

3.6%

3.7%

Parmalat

€5,684.1

31.9

34.0

10.4

9.1

0.6%

0.7%

Bonduelle

€941.8

15.6

12.7

9.1

7.1

1.5%

1.6%

Valsoia

€174.2

19.8

19.5

11.0

10.5

2.0%

1.5%

Peer group average

19.9

19.2

10.3

8.9

2.0%

2.0%

La Doria

€267.5

11.6

9.1

8.5

7.0

2.0%

2.8%

Premium/(discount) to peer group

-44.6%

-54.7%

-17.3%

-21.6%

-0.9%

39.2%

Source: Edison Investment Research estimates and Bloomberg consensus. Note: Prices at 16 March 2017.

We have also rolled forward our DCF to 2017 and calculate a fair value of €12.59 per share (from €10.99), or 46% upside from the current level. This is based on our assumptions of a 1.5% terminal growth rate, a 9.0% terminal EBITDA margin and a beta of 0.8, giving a WACC of 6%. Below we show a sensitivity analysis to these assumptions and note that the current share price is discounting a terminal EBIT margin of 6.5% and a terminal growth rate of c -1%.

Exhibit 3: DCF sensitivity to terminal growth rate and EBIT margin (€ per share)

EBIT margin

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

85.%

9.0%

Terminal growth

-2.0%

7.8

8.4

8.9

9.5

10.1

10.6

-1.0%

8.5

9.2

9.8

10.5

11.1

11.8

0.0%

9.5

10.2

11.0

11.7

12.5

13.2

1.0%

10.8

11.7

12.6

13.5

14.4

15.3

2.0%

12.7

13.8

14.9

16.0

17.2

18.3

3.0%

15.7

17.2

18.6

20.1

21.6

23.0

4.0%

21.3

23.4

25.5

27.6

29.7

31.8

Source: Edison Investment Research estimates

Key sensitivities

La Doria’s key sensitivities include:

input cost inflation on the agricultural commodities it processes to manufacture its products;

the supply/demand balance of fresh tomatoes affecting the achievability of finished goods price inflation;

consumption patterns and competitive pressures, particularly in Europe with a subdued economic environment, although La Doria and private label in general should benefit from any consumer down trading; and

foreign exchange, specifically euro/sterling due to the consolidation of its trading subsidiary LDH.

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

€m

2014

2015

2016

2017e

2018e

2019e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

631.4

748.3

653.1

643.3

681.9

702.4

Cost of Sales

(527.6)

(616.9)

(545.4)

(545.5)

(571.5)

(581.6)

Gross Profit

103.8

131.5

107.8

97.8

110.5

120.8

EBITDA

 

 

60.0

77.6

56.3

47.7

58.1

67.6

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

48.1

61.0

39.9

34.7

45.6

55.1

Intangible Amortisation

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

FX Gain / (loss)

0.3

3.6

8.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

Operating Profit

48.4

64.6

48.8

34.7

45.6

55.1

Net Interest

(4.1)

(3.6)

(2.7)

(2.0)

(3.5)

(3.5)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

44.0

57.4

37.3

32.7

42.1

51.6

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

44.3

61.0

46.2

32.7

42.1

51.6

Tax

(14.3)

(16.1)

(12.4)

(8.5)

(11.4)

(13.9)

Profit After Tax (norm)

29.9

44.8

33.7

24.2

30.7

37.6

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

29.9

44.8

33.7

24.2

30.7

37.6

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

30.6

31.0

31.0

31.0

31.0

31.0

EPS - normalised fully diluted (c)

 

 

80.5

144.6

108.8

78.1

99.1

121.4

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

81.5

144.6

108.8

78.1

99.1

121.4

Dividend per share (c)

22.0

28.0

18.0

17.0

24.0

24.0

Gross Margin (%)

16.4

17.6

16.5

15.2

16.2

17.2

EBITDA Margin (%)

9.5

10.4

8.6

7.4

8.5

9.6

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

7.6

8.1

6.1

5.4

6.7

7.8

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

179.6

177.6

173.3

170.8

170.8

170.8

Intangible Assets

10.6

10.6

10.0

9.3

8.6

7.9

Tangible Assets

146.6

143.3

143.9

142.1

142.8

143.5

Investments

22.3

23.7

19.4

19.4

19.4

19.4

Current Assets

 

 

374.0

398.8

367.8

381.7

414.9

445.0

Stocks

212.9

199.8

187.0

185.5

197.2

200.6

Debtors

100.3

107.7

103.9

99.7

105.7

108.9

Cash

41.1

77.9

62.8

82.4

97.9

121.3

Other

19.6

13.3

14.2

14.2

14.2

14.2

Current Liabilities

 

 

(229.1)

(220.7)

(187.9)

(179.2)

(189.3)

(191.1)

Creditors

(143.7)

(129.3)

(126.4)

(117.7)

(127.8)

(129.6)

Short term borrowings

(85.4)

(91.4)

(61.5)

(61.5)

(61.5)

(61.5)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(136.6)

(157.3)

(144.5)

(140.4)

(132.8)

(132.8)

Long term borrowings

(93.9)

(116.6)

(106.1)

(116.0)

(116.0)

(116.0)

Other long term liabilities

(42.6)

(40.7)

(38.3)

(24.4)

(16.8)

(16.8)

Net Assets

 

 

187.9

198.4

208.8

233.0

263.7

291.9

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

53.7

58.2

65.7

36.2

39.2

48.8

Net Interest

(4.1)

(3.6)

(2.7)

(2.0)

(3.5)

(3.5)

Tax

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Capex

(17.2)

(8.4)

(13.0)

(10.5)

(12.5)

(12.5)

Acquisitions/disposals

(64.8)

(4.9)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Financing

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dividends

(6.3)

(9.3)

(8.4)

(6.1)

(7.7)

(9.4)

Other

8.6

(23.3)

(16.3)

(8.0)

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

(30.2)

8.7

25.3

9.6

15.5

23.4

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

108.5

138.2

130.1

104.8

95.1

79.6

HP finance leases initiated

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.5

(0.6)

(0.1)

0.1

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

138.2

130.1

104.8

95.1

79.6

56.2

Source: Edison Investment Research, La Doria accounts

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by La Doria and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

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Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by La Doria and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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