Liquefied Natural Gas’s (LNGL) Magnolia development is up to 30 months ahead of other US-based greenfield liquefaction plants in regulatory approvals, putting it in prime position for buyers/traders looking to take advantage of the expected rebalancing of the LNG market in 2022-23. With low capex/opex/gas prices, the project has the potential to be very lucrative for partners selling to Europe/Asia. As a result, we now expect LNGL to sign tolling agreements and move towards FID in 2018, with first production in 2023. We have updated our valuation, which falls from US$3.79/ADR (A$1.25/share) to US$3.23/ADR (A$1.00/share). On a longer-term basis, this valuation should grow as the project is de-risked by tolling agreements and moves towards first LNG.

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