McBride — Repairs complete

McBride — Repairs complete

McBride has completed its Repair phase of the turnaround programme and has commenced the Prepare phase. The business is performing in line with what management had set out at the start of the programme, and overall progress demonstrates that McBride is indeed now more focused on the bottom line, as key financial ratios are improving. The acquisition of Danlind for £39m, announced earlier this week, demonstrates that execution of the Prepare phase is already well underway.

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Written by

McBride

Repairs complete

Consumer

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8 September 2017

Price

195.25p

Market cap

£356m

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Share details

Code

MCB

Listing

LSE

Shares in issue

182.1m

Business description

McBride is Europe’s leading provider of private-label household and personal care products, supplying Europe’s top 50 retailers. It has production capability in 11 countries and is growing a presence in Central and Eastern Europe, and South-East Asia.

Bull

Management focused on tight cost control.

Contract manufacturing and I&I channel a new source of growth.

Danlind acquisition provides scope for growth in new geographies and channels, and efficiency savings.

Bear

Raw materials increasing.

Termination of PCA business sale a distraction.

Execution risks remain with the turnaround programme.

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0) 20 3077 5700

Paul Hickman

+44 (0)20 3681 2501

McBride has completed its Repair phase of the turnaround programme and has commenced the Prepare phase. The business is performing in line with what management had set out at the start of the programme, and overall progress demonstrates that McBride is indeed now more focused on the bottom line, as key financial ratios are improving. The acquisition of Danlind for £39m, announced earlier this week, demonstrates that execution of the Prepare phase is already well underway.

Holding up in a challenging environment

FY results were in line with expectations and trading in the new fiscal year has had a satisfactory start. Revenue pressures remain, but the company's unrelenting focus on cost and efficiency should continue to mitigate them. Management expects performance to be weighted towards H2 – a reversal of the trend in FY17 – as most of the raw material cost increases seen last year will be more evident in H1, with comparatives easing in H2. The current trend for food price inflation makes it hard to pass on price increases in other consumer categories such as household, which is not helpful, and the termination of the PCA (aerosols) business sale is an additional distraction as the business needs to be reintegrated into the company.

Contract manufacturing and I&I: New growth?

As outlined at the H117 results, there is an increased trend towards contract manufacturing. Branded manufacturers are increasingly under pressure to review cost structures, and McBride has engaged meaningfully with a number of potential customers. These projects will take a while to come through, but progress is nonetheless encouraging as the segment could be a new area of growth. Separately, the Danlind acquisition brings a new channel to McBride Institutional and Industrial (I&I: hospitals, hotels, restaurants etc). This is a segment where the company has no historical presence and could provide an interesting new growth opportunity if McBride chooses to expand the I&I business beyond Danlind's Danish core.

Valuation: Turnaround yet to be reflected

McBride trades on 12.6x FY18e P/E and 11.0x FY19e P/E, which is a sharp discount to the household sector. A re-rating is conditional on successful delivery of the turnaround programme and ensuring that cost savings fall through to the bottom line; so far the results have been encouraging. Adjusted EBITA margin continued on the right trajectory and was 5.9% for FY17, the net debt cover ratio (net debt/EBITDA) was down to 1.2x (this will rise post-Danlind) and ROCE was 27.7%.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(£m)

PBT
(£m)

EPS
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

06/17

705.2

34.6

13.1

4.3

14.9

2.2

06/18e

738.5

40.5

15.5

5.2

12.6

2.7

06/19e

762.6

45.9

17.7

5.8

11.0

3.0

06/20e

781.3

50.6

19.6

6.2

10.0

3.2

Source: Bloomberg

EDISON QUICKVIEWS ARE NORMALLY ONE OFF PUBLICATIONS WITH NO COMMITMENT TO WRITING ANY FOLLOW UP. QUICKVIEW NOTES USE CONSENSUS EARNINGS ESTIMATES.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Disclaimer

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are "wholesale clients" for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document.
A marketing communication under FCA rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a "personalised service" and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a "class service" provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited ("FTSE") (c) FTSE [2014]. "FTSE(r)" is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE's express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Research: TMT

Vectron Systems — Solid H1; GetHappy launch set for FY18

Vectron Systems continues to benefit from regulatory tailwinds, achieving revenue growth of 26% in H117 after the 30% growth reported in FY16. This translated to operating margin expansion of 6.7 percentage points year-on-year to 14.9%. The company expects the new GetHappy app to be launched in FY18; this has the potential to provide significant upside to Vectron’s earnings. We do not believe that this is currently factored into consensus forecasts although the share price reflects some level of success for GetHappy in our view.

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