Morgan Sindall — Update 1 March 2017

Morgan Sindall — Update 1 March 2017

Morgan Sindall

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Written by

Morgan Sindall

Confidence restored, earnings growth ahead

Construction & materials

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1 March 2017

Price

993p

Market cap

£446m

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Share details

Code

MGNS

Listing

LSE

Shares in issue

44.9m

Business description

Morgan Sindall’s business comprises UK construction and infrastructure contracting with a focus on fit-out, partnership housing and regeneration. It also has a small property services business

Bull

Market conditions positive.

Excellent balance sheet, net cash of £209m and a small pension surplus.

Good reputation in its markets, UK leader in fit-out and risk management much improved.

Bear

Industry is cyclical.

A few bad projects can spoil much good work.

Build cost inflation affected by FX & skill gaps.

Analysts

Stephen Rawlinson

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Toby Thorrington

+44 (0)20 3077 5722

Morgan Sindall (MGNS) met its optimistic update statements by reporting strong earnings and cash last year; operating profit grew 26% and year-end net cash was over £209m, with average daily cash of £25m. The company delivered EPS of 84.7p, well ahead of consensus estimates, which were around 78p. The company has set medium-term targets which, if achieved, could see EPS approach 150p, on a three-year view. That is based on £100m of operating profit versus £48.4m in 2016. The company states that the 2017 outturn will be higher than existing expectations.

Mid-term targets for each sector to double earnings?

This is the first time we have seen medium-term targets for MGNS, which include different targets for each area based on margin or ROCE and, in fit-out, for an absolute level of earnings. While the approach is different in each area, the key issues are firstly, that the “stretch” is small and implies only reaching industry average levels, and secondly, the targets are appropriate measures for the relevant operations.

Markets and funding point to realistic opportunity

MGNS has positioned itself successfully as one of the UK companies that can deliver large-scale construction and infrastructure projects. It also has a good position in partnership housing. It is the market leader in UK fit-out. UK construction sector companies report no shortage of work at present, especially in partnership housing. The availability of funds for expansion is an important advantage. Legacy projects are now fully cleared. The cash position allows the company to bid for big projects, eg it has recently become preferred bidder for 900 dwellings for the MoD. The order book at end December 2016 was £3.6bn, 29% up on last year.

Valuation

The performance in 2016 and the order book point towards substantial growth in 2017 and potentially much further growth in the medium term. The FY17e 10x P/E valuation of the UK contractor sector is typically lower than the general UK average (14x), due to high perceived risk. However, MGNS’s cash position, absence of pension issues and strong market positions justify a relatively high rating. The attractive yield and increased level of dividend – up 21% with cover at 2.4x – also give support to an above average valuation.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(£bn)

PBT
(£m)

EPS
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/16

2.56

45.3

84.7

35.0

11.7

3.5

12/17e

2.58

51.0

92.6

38.7

10.7

3.9

12/18e

2.64

56.9

103.5

43.4

9.6

4.4

12/19e

2.78

68.1

126.0

51.4

7.9

5.2

Source: Bloomberg

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205, 95 Pitt St

Sydney NSW 2000

Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205, 95 Pitt St

Sydney NSW 2000

Australia

Disclaimer

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are "wholesale clients" for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document.
A marketing communication under FCA rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a "personalised service" and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a "class service" provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited ("FTSE") (c) FTSE [2014]. "FTSE(r)" is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE's express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205, 95 Pitt St

Sydney NSW 2000

Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205, 95 Pitt St

Sydney NSW 2000

Australia

Research: Healthcare

Basilea Pharmaceutica — Steady as she goes

Basilea reported a solid set of 2016 numbers ahead of guidance, driven by higher than expected product sales in H216 combined with lower than expected operating costs. Cresemba (for invasive mould infections), in particular, continues to pick up momentum both in the EU and the US through US partner Astellas. Zevtera’s US pivotal Phase III clinical trial programme for bacterial infections remains on track to initiate in mid-2017. Multiple distribution and commercialisation agreements signed in H216 should lead to international launches starting from 2018 for both products. We value Basilea at CHF1,048m or CHF97/share (excl. treasury shares).

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