Powerflute — Update 10 December 2015

Powerflute — Update 10 December 2015

Powerflute

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Powerflute

Potential offer in the wings

Trading update &
potential offer

Paper & packaging

11 December 2015

Price

92.0p

Market cap

£261m

£/€1.42

Net debt (€m) at end June 2015

52.0

Shares in issue
(excludes treasury shares)

284.1

Free float

56%

Code

POWR

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

Business description

Powerflute is a holding company established to acquire and improve underperforming businesses and assets in the broadly defined international paper and packaging sector. Savon Sellu is a niche producer of packaging fluting papers. Corenso is a leading global integrated manufacturer of coreboard and cores.

Analysts

Toby Thorrington

+44 (0)20 3077 5721

Roger Johnston

+44 (0)20 3077 5722

Powerflute is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

In twin announcements, Powerflute has indicated that management expectations are for FY15 EBITDA in the €53-55m range and the company has received a preliminary proposal of a potential offer for the company. The offer is subject to further due diligence, among other things, and there is no certainty that an offer will be made. We have withdrawn our estimates pending further announcements on this matter.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/13

129.4

11.3

3.3

1.4

39.6

1.1

12/14

150.1

14.1

4.1

1.5

31.9

1.1

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation and exceptionals.

H215 EBITDA in line or ahead of H115

Powerflute’ trading update indicates a strong performance from both its divisions in H215. Cores & coreboard has seen mixed regional patterns led by the US, with China still competitive and European locations responding to post-acquisition actions taken. Related integration costs are said to be in line with or below previous guidance. Packaging Papers continues to trade ahead of the prior year and the post-maintenance plant restart was completed successfully. Guidance for FY15 EBITDA is now €53-55m (at current FX); this compares to €26.4m reported in H115 and our previously published estimates of c €49m (on 19 October). The indicated year-end net debt figure is in the €42-46m range (vs c €47m in our last note).

Preliminary proposal received

Separately, Powerflute announced that it has received a preliminary proposal regarding a possible offer for the company from Madison Dearborn Partners. The proposal is 90p in cash per share for c 189.6m shares in public ownership and 79p per share in cash (plus a potential 6p deferred per share depending on achieving €66m EBITDA by a yet to be specified trigger date) for the c 107m shares held by Dermot F Smurfit (chairman of Powerflute) and Bacchantes (controlled by Sir Michael Smurfit). Together, these would equate to a total equity value of c €255m (or c €262m including the deferred element). The proposal is to be reviewed by Powerflute’s five independent directors (the CEO, CFO and three of the four NEDs).

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Copyright 2015 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Powerflute and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Research: TMT

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