SDX Energy — Update 25 August 2016

SDX Energy (LN: SDX)

Last close As at 27/03/2024

17.50

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Market capitalisation

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Research: Energy & Resources

SDX Energy — Update 25 August 2016

SDX Energy

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Energy & Resources

SDX Energy

Volumes to grow by 2017

H116 results

Oil & gas

25 August 2016

Price

24.75p

Market cap

£20m

£0.76/US$

Net cash ($m) (June 2016)

6.9

Shares in issue

80m

Free float

82%

Code

SDX

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

TSX Venture

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

22.2

16.5

N/A

Rel (local)

19.4

6.8

N/A

52-week high/low

27p

18p

Business description

SDX Energy is an Egyptian onshore player listed in Toronto and London. It has plans to notably increase production in two fields, while a third should see a carried exploration well by year-end 2016.

Next events

Workovers and waterflood at Meseda

H216

Gemsa workovers

H216

Analyst

Will Forbes

+44 (0)20 3077 5749

SDX Energy is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Given the extensive work programme that will start to bear fruit in the second half of the year, SDX Energy’s Q216 results shouldn’t be seen as an indication of future prospects. Following the results, we have lowered our production expectations for FY16 slightly, but still see a large rise in volumes in FY17. We expect gross FY17 production at Meseda of 8.8mbbls/d (vs H116 average of 3.3mbbls/d), while Gemsa production should remain stable (7.3mbbls/d in FY17 vs H116 average of 7.3mbbls/d). This should drive a sharp increase in earnings and free cash flow generation in FY17. Our revised core NAV of 39p/share (C$0.67/share) does not include the full upside of the programme or risked exploration value at South Disouq (drilling at the turn of the year), which takes the RENAV to 68p/share (C$1.17/share).

Year end

Revenue
($m)

PBT*
($m)

Operating
cash flow ($m)

Net (debt)/
cash ($m)

Capex
($m)

12/14

25

17

26

16

(13)

12/15

11

19

(5)

8

(0)

12/16e

14

(1)

5

7

(17)

12/17e

24

10

10

15

(2)

Note: *PBT are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Work overs and drilling should drive volume growth

As we discussed in the initiation, we expect net production to grow strongly at the end of the 2016 as Meseda volumes increase materially, driven by workover (eight workovers were completed) facilities upgrades, ESP replacements and waterflood activities. The aim at Gemsa is to keep production at current levels for as long as possible (we assume to H117). This should be helped by the recent development well at Al Amir (SE-24) which tested at 1.7mbbl/d liquids and 3.1mmscf/d gas, which complements the five workovers performed during the period.

South Disouq activities ongoing

Work on South Disouq is ongoing, with 3D seismic acquired ahead of schedule allowing interpretation to start. Delineation of the opportunity (currently thought to be more than a tcf on a p10 basis, and 585bcf on a pMean basis) should allow exploration drilling in late 2016/early 2017.

Valuation: Lowered slightly, still upside

We have reduced our core NAV to 39p/share (C$0.67/share) from 41p/share (C$0.71/share) given the lower production we now expect in 2016 and higher opex costs. However, we continue to believe that these volumes will increase into 2017, transforming the company into a free cash flow generating Egyptian producer, able to fund any discovery at South Disouq or reinvest in further assets in Egypt, which we believe the company is well-placed to approach. Including risked valuation of the upside to the work programme and South Disouq, our RENAV is reduced slightly to 68p/share (C$1.17/share) from 70p.

Results summary

The company’s results in H116 are largely immaterial for valuation purposes given the transformation in volumes that should happen in H216/early 2017 as the work programme starts to affect the production rates. That said, we have reduced our production estimates slightly to reflect lower than expected volumes in H116.

Opex costs of $12/bbl in Q216 are higher than we expected (and much higher than Q116), and we have reflected this in opex expectations for the rest of the year. This increased cost/bbl is a result of the increased work-over activity in Meseda and NWG during the period, which has now been completed, and the consequential lower production in Q216 as the wells were taken offline while being worked over. We have kept 2017 (and onwards) opex the same, although we would expect to see reductions in opex/bbl to start by the end of the year as volumes increase. We note that a $1/bbl increase in opex at Meseda would reduce unrisked NAV there by 8% (and 9% at Gemsa), so we will be watching this closely in coming quarters.

Exhibit 1: Summary of H116 results

 

Units

Q116

Q216

Q215

6m2016

6m2015

Financial

Gross Revenues

USD 000s

2,789

3,384

2,900

6,173

5,715

Royalties

USD 000s

(679)

(863)

-

(1,542)

-

Net Revenues

USD 000s

2,110

2,521

2,900

4,631

5,715

Operating costs

USD 000s

(999)

(1,290)

(1,004)

(2,289)

(1,675)

Netback

USD 000s

1,111

1,231

1,896

2,342

4,040

Funds from operations

USD 000s

-37

593

1,502

556

3,370

Cash, end of period

USD 000s

8,671

6,949

12,462

6,949

12,462

Working capital (excl. cash)

USD 000s

-3,257

1,283

1,172

1,283

1,172

Capital expenditures

USD 000s

5,819

6,475

1,605

12,294

1,918

Total assets

USD 000s

64,907

47,231

44,333

47,231

44,333

Shareholders' equity

USD 000s

54,457

38,560

41,660

38,560

41,660

Common shares outstanding

000s

37,642

75,934

56,348

75,934

56,348

OPERATIONAL

Oil sales

bbl/d

606

554

-

580

-

Production Service Fee

bbl/d

646

616

783

631

807

Total assets

boe/d

1,252

1,170

783

1,211

807

Brent Oil Price

$/bbl

33.73

45.54

61.72

39.63

57.77

West Gharib Oil Price

$/bbl

25.65

30.38

49.42

27.96

47.52

Net realized price

$/bbl

24.46

31.8

40.72

28.01

39.1

Royalties

$/bbl

5.96

8.11

-

7

-

Operating costs

$/bbl

8.77

12.12

14.09

10.38

11.46

Netback

$/bbl

9.73

11.57

26.63

10.63

27.64

Implied gross field production

Meseda

bbl/d

3,390

3,232

4,108

3,311

4,234

Gemsa

boe/d

7,570

6,930

-

7,250

-

Source: SDX Energy, Edison Investment Research estimates. Note: We estimate full field production from Meseda and Gemsa. At Gemsa, we use the boe figures (including gas and NGLs) rather than liquids sold for production volumes.

Valuation

Following the H116 report, we have reduced our valuation, driven primarily by lower than expected H116 volume and modestly higher costs as a result of the workover activity in Q216. The core NAV of 38p/share still represents good upside if the company can execute on its growth programme.

Exhibit 2: Valuation summary

Asset

 

 

 

Recoverable Reserves

 

Net Risked value

 

Country

Diluted WI

CoS

Gross

Net

NPV

Absolute

pence per share

C$/share

 

%

%

mmboe

$/boe

$m

12.5%

 

Net (Debt) Cash - post AIM listing estimate

100%

100%

14

13

0.23

SG&A - NPV10 of 3yrs

100%

100%

(7)

(7)

(0.12)

Net financial income (expenses) NPV 2 yrs

100%

100%

0

0

0.00

2016 Exploration

100%

100%

0

0

0.00

Production

Meseda Base case - Edison

Egypt

50%

100%

5.7

2.9

5.4

15

15

0.25

Meseda Base + Workovers - Edison

Egypt

50%

90%

4.9

2.4

5.7

13

12

0.20

Gemsa 1P

Egypt

10%

100%

6.5

0.7

6.0

4

4

0.06

Gemsa 2P

Egypt

10%

100%

2.3

0.2

10.2

2

2

0.04

Core NAV

 

 

 

 

 

 

41

39

0.67

Development upside

Meseda Base + Workovers + Waterflood - Edison

Egypt

50%

40%

13.4

6.7

4.8

13

12

0.21

Gemsa - Maintain Plateau at c. 8kboed until H117

Egypt

10%

75%

5.0

0.5

8.8

3

3

0.05

Exploration (known)

SouthDisouq

Egypt

55%

13%

64.8

35.6

3.2

15

14

0.24

Exploration NAV

 

 

 

 

 

 

31

29

0.50

RENAV

 

 

 

 

 

 

72

68

1.17

Source: Edison Investment Research, company financials

Financials

The company ended the period with cash of US$6.9m, which is enough to fund the existing work programme in 2016 and 2017. Importantly, the transformational exploration at South Disouq (expected at the end of 2016/early 2017) is carried and could open up a huge opportunity for SDX if successful. Our revisions imply end of year cash of US$6.6m in 2016, which should grow in 2017 as volumes increase from existing assets. As we discussed in the initiation note, capital resources would be limited in the case of development at South Disouq, but we would expect the company to have a number of avenues to bridge any temporary cashflow deficit.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

 

 

$'000s

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

2018e

2019e

Dec

 

 

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

24,533

11,372

13,623

24,235

26,683

28,872

Cost of Sales

(3,639)

(4,973)

(7,004)

(9,362)

(7,923)

(6,876)

Gross Profit

20,894

6,399

6,619

14,873

18,760

21,997

EBITDA

 

 

19,126

2,650

3,021

13,592

16,936

19,724

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

17,524

593

(1,300)

9,814

14,032

17,752

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

(2,767)

(6,915)

(27,700)

0

0

0

Share based payments

(1,064)

(761)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

13,693

(7,083)

(30,000)

8,814

13,032

16,752

Net Interest

(1,009)

18,193

16

13

30

55

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

16,515

18,786

(1,284)

9,827

14,062

17,807

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

12,684

11,110

(29,984)

8,827

13,062

16,807

Tax

(4,328)

(1,063)

(86)

(2,035)

(2,888)

(3,641)

Profit After Tax (norm)

12,187

17,723

(1,369)

7,793

11,174

14,166

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

8,356

10,047

(30,069)

6,793

10,174

13,166

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

376.5

37.6

79.8

79.8

79.8

79.8

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

3.2

47.1

(1.7)

9.8

14.0

17.7

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p)

3.2

47.1

(1.7)

9.8

14.0

17.7

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

2.2

26.7

(37.7)

8.5

12.7

16.5

Dividend per share (p)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

85.2

56.3

48.6

61.4

70.3

76.2

EBITDA Margin (%)

78.0

23.3

22.2

56.1

63.5

68.3

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

71.4

5.2

-9.5

40.5

52.6

61.5

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

27,851

43,980

28,672

26,694

24,328

22,406

Intangible Assets

16,460

23,473

8,973

9,153

9,207

9,212

Tangible Assets

9,392

18,401

17,593

15,435

13,015

11,089

Investments

1,999

2,106

2,106

2,106

2,106

2,106

Current Assets

 

 

21,241

16,036

11,475

23,015

36,194

51,853

Stocks

0

1,188

1,188

1,588

1,344

1,166

Debtors

3,306

6,678

3,678

6,543

7,204

7,795

Cash

17,935

8,170

6,609

14,884

27,646

42,892

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(9,035)

(4,484)

(4,484)

(7,254)

(7,893)

(8,464)

Creditors

(6,828)

(4,484)

(4,484)

(7,254)

(7,893)

(8,464)

Short term borrowings

(2,207)

0

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(608)

(286)

(286)

(286)

(286)

(286)

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

(608)

(286)

(286)

(286)

(286)

(286)

Net Assets

 

 

39,449

55,246

35,377

42,169

52,343

65,509

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

25,531

(5,214)

4,951

10,075

13,300

15,296

Net Interest

0

0

0

0

0

0

Tax

0

0

0

0

0

0

Capex

(12,524)

(284)

(16,712)

(1,800)

(538)

(50)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

0

0

Financing

(615)

(565)

10,200

0

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

12,392

(6,063)

(1,561)

8,275

12,762

15,246

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

(3,336)

(15,728)

(8,170)

(6,609)

(14,884)

(27,646)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

0

(1,495)

0

0

(0)

(0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

(15,728)

(8,170)

(6,609)

(14,884)

(27,646)

(42,892)

Source: Edison Investment Research, company accounts

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by SDX Energy and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by SDX Energy and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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