Share — Update 29 March 2016

Share — Update 29 March 2016

Share

Martyn King

Written by

Martyn King

Director, Financials

Share

Investing for growth

Preliminary results

Financial services

29 March 2016

Price

27.00p

Market cap

£39m

Net cash (£m) at 31 December 2015

11.7

Shares in issue

143.7m

Free float

31%

Code

SHRE

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(3.6)

(3.6)

(31.2)

Rel (local)

(7.3)

(0.9)

(22.8)

52-week high/low

39.2p

27.0p

Business description

Share plc’s main subsidiary is The Share Centre, which is a self-select retail stockbroker that also offers share services for corporates and employees. It has a relatively high proportion of income from fees.

Next event

Interim results expected

10 August 2016

Analysts

Andrew Mitchell

+44 (0)20 3681 2500

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5745

Share is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Just as Share plc aims to provide retail investors with an accessible platform to invest for the future, so the company is this year engaging in a significant investment in IT to enable it to meet future customer requirements and secure its own ability to benefit from the prospective growth in the population of self-directed investors. This is set to hold back profitability in 2016, but should provide the platform for longer-term growth. Supporting the investment, at the year-end Share had no debt, cash of nearly £12m and capital 3.6 times the FCA requirement.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/14

15.0

1.6

0.99

0.62

27.3

2.3

12/15

14.1

0.6

0.40

0.74

67.5

2.7

12/16e

14.6

(0.8)

(0.43)

0.20

N/A

0.7

12/17e

16.1

0.3

0.18

0.20

150.0

0.7

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Keeping focus on customer service

2015 proved to be a challenging year for stock market investors and hence for activity levels for Share. Nevertheless, excluding interest income, which continues to shrink under the twin pressures of regulatory change and lower rates, revenue was only down 3%. Market share (revenue) in a ComPeer-collected peer group was at a record 7.79% versus 7.66% for 2014. The company has kept its eye on customer service, winning further awards on the back of this and garnering predominantly positive feedback on Trustpilot (score 8.8), for example. To maintain this key strategic focus, the company has announced it is this year embarking on an important programme of investment in IT to support new functionality on its website and innovation in engagement with customers. While this will affect the P&L this year, it should underpin longer-term growth prospects. (See page 2 for commentary on FY15 results).

Outlook

The current year started with stock market weakness and elevated volatility. Prospectively, uncertainty over global macroeconomic developments remains prominent and domestically the EU membership referendum is also a restraint on investor confidence. Activity level for Share may therefore be subdued again for 2016 and investment costs are likely to mean a loss will be recorded. On a longer view, however, the potential to serve a growing retail investor audience and gain additional market share through partnerships and possibly acquisition holds out the prospect of an operationally geared bounce back in profits.

Valuation: Hinges on long-term profit improvement

In comparison with two other investment platforms, Share does not appear demandingly valued (see page 5), while our central DCF valuation now stands at 28p, which is similar to our previous average valuation of 28.5p.

Company description: Accessible retail stockbroker

Share’s main business is The Share Centre, launched in 1991 to provide self-select stockbroking services to individual investors. In addition to share dealing accounts, The Share Centre offers a range of other accounts including ISAs, SIPPs and those for investment clubs. It has c 248,000 customer accounts and £2.8bn of assets under administration. Customers are signed up individually and through corporate partnerships such as those with Henderson (ISA service to investment trust investors) and Barclays (certificated and investment club dealing services). Revenue is generated from three sources: account fees, trading commissions and interest income, split 45%, 46% and 9% respectively for 2015. Share’s account fee structure is differentiated from many peers by being fixed per account rather than based on the value of assets under administration. This means that the accounts frequently rank favourably in comparisons of providers (depending on portfolio size and frequency of trading, for example in the Financial Times’ ISA Guide 2016).

2015 preliminary results

Key points

2015 a tough year with the second-half stock market environment less favourable than the first.

Revenue -6% at £14.1m or down only 3%, excluding interest income. The latter was flat if the £0.4m of trail income earned in 2014 (zero in 2015) is also excluded.

For 2015 as a whole market share (revenue) in ComPeer-collected peer group was at a record 7.79% versus 7.66% for 2014. (The peer group excludes Hargreaves Lansdown, which does not submit information to ComPeer.)

Assets under administration increased by nearly 10% (to £2.8bn).

Overall costs (£14.9m) up 2% but, excluding transactional costs related to the Barclays certificated dealing service, down 2%. Marketing spend reduced 19% to £1.9m in response to the unfavourable market background.

Pre-tax profit £0.9m versus £0.7m, including one-off gain of £1.5m on the partial sale of shares in the London Stock Exchange (LSE), net of a £0.2m write-down of the investment in WAY Group.

Underlying, basic, diluted EPS (ex-one off items and the charge for share-based payments) was 0.4p compared with 1.0p for 2014. Basic earnings per share 0.5p versus 0.4p.

Dividend per share of 0.74p (+19%) announced, returning cash realised from LSE shares and supported by strong cash position.

New dividend policy adopted under which payments will be based on earnings and cash generated. Subject to board consideration of factors such as a potential further sale of LSE shares and the earnings outlook, this could lead to a reduction of the dividend for FY16.

Share remains focused on putting customers first and makes clear that 2016 will be a year of investment to improve the customer experience, with the aim of underpinning its long-term growth potential and the scalability of the business model.

Strategy

Share’s vision is to be people’s first choice for investment knowledge, advice and fair value and its strategy remains to achieve superior growth through: (1) a focus on the core business; (2) continuing to put customers first; and (3) establishing partnerships and making selective acquisitions.

In terms of focus, Share announced in February that it intends to transfer its Authorised Corporate Director role to another party (this service provided to OEICs sits within the small Sharefunds, fund administration business, which accounted for less than 5% of revenues in 2015). Net of likely associated cost reductions, management indicates this move will not have a significant impact on this year’s results.

The priority given to customer service is evident in the decision to increase investment in IT to, for example, improve the workings of the website (one of the few critical recent comments on Trustpilot suggested the website was relatively ‘clunky’, albeit value and service were otherwise deemed sufficient to stick with The Share Centre). The company is also planning to launch an app and renew some of its underlying legacy systems to be able to meet evolving customer expectations and to broaden its appeal from its ‘heartland’ customer base, which is more than 45 years old with a reasonable level of savings. Management indicates that spending will be significant, which we estimate at around £1m. It also highlights that in-house development and management of technology, with third-party support, means that were a significant acquisition opportunity to arise, it would be possible to reschedule work to allow the business to focus on assimilation before resuming work on updating systems.

The focus on the core business informs the emphasis on establishing corporate partnerships and narrowing the scope of potential acquisitions. While unable to disclose details of potential agreements, Share describes the pipeline of opportunities for partnerships as healthy, helped by the credibility provided by the existing partnerships with Henderson and Barclays.

Share describes its market competitors as falling into three groups: first, independents such as itself, Interactive Investor and TD Investing in the middle ground where there could be consolidation (Share sees itself as a consolidator rather than a target, a point underlined by its IT investment); second are companies that were traditionally fund distributors, which include Fidelity and market leader Hargreaves Lansdown; and third, businesses that form part of banks and insurance companies that risk orphan status in larger organisations. While greater concentration seems likely in order to reap the benefits of scale, it is not possible to anticipate when there might be a combination of willing buyer(s) and seller(s). Consolidation among other players could be either positive or negative for Share, depending on how this affects competitive behaviour, although at some point the need to generate economic returns would seem to provide some reassurance. Also, Share’s fixed account fee structure appears less at risk than percentage-based models, as it reflects the nature of platform costs.

Trading background

Exhibits 1 and 2 show a three-year history for the FTSE All-Share Index and the FTSE 100 Implied Volatility Index (UK equivalent of the US VIX, sometimes characterised as a ‘fear gauge’). They highlight how, against a background of increasing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, the equity index rolled over during 2015 and volatility increased, particularly in the second half of the year. The current year began on a sharply negative trend for UK equities, but there has been a bounce, still leaving volatility at heightened levels.

Exhibit 1: FTSE All-Share Index (total return)

Exhibit 2: FTSE 100 Implied Volatility Index

Source: Thomson Datastream

Source: Thomson Datastream

Exhibit 1: FTSE All-Share Index (total return)

Source: Thomson Datastream

Exhibit 2: FTSE 100 Implied Volatility Index

Source: Thomson Datastream

How does this translate into activity levels for a stockbroker serving individual investors? As Share’s results indicated, the background in the second half of 2015 was particularly difficult. Activity levels can be stimulated when there are sharp market moves and Share reports that 24 August 2015 (‘Black Monday’, when markets experienced a major sell-off) was a record for its trading volume. Subsequently, however, deterred by the level of volatility, investors stood back from the market, which affects the level of dealing commissions. Exhibits 3 and 4 show how this experience was shared across the retail execution-only market in the UK, with second-half trading volumes moving below the longer-term average and experiencing significant percentage declines compared with the same period in 2014. The current year has started with year-on-year comparisons still in negative territory but seemingly on an improving trend.

Exhibit 3: Retail trading volume (bargains)

Exhibit 4: Retail trading volume (change vs prior year)

Source: ComPeer, London Stock Exchange volume of bargains: retail execution-only platforms.

Source: ComPeer, London Stock Exchange volume of bargains: retail execution-only platforms.

Exhibit 3: Retail trading volume (bargains)

Source: ComPeer, London Stock Exchange volume of bargains: retail execution-only platforms.

Exhibit 4: Retail trading volume (change vs prior year)

Source: ComPeer, London Stock Exchange volume of bargains: retail execution-only platforms.

Outlook

The factors that adversely affected equity market confidence in the second half of 2015 remain in place, with principle concerns including the rate of economic growth in China, changes in key central banks policy and commentary and, domestically, the referendum on the UK’s EU membership. Positively, however, the ECB’s extension of its monetary easing measures and the possible reduction in uncertainty following the June referendum could make for a more positive background. As noted above, execution-only London Stock Exchange trading volumes appear to be on an improving trend, but are still showing negative year-on-year changes.

On balance, it would seem a reasonably favourable outcome if retail share trading activity in 2016 were to match 2015. However, for Share there is the potential for further market share gains, helped to some extent by the partnerships agreed so far and in prospect.

Valuation

In this section we consider a comparison of peer valuations and the assumptions and outputs of a discounted cash flow valuation. Our comparison with investment platform operators Alliance Trust Savings and Hargreaves Lansdown does not give a clear valuation steer, but does suggest that once Share’s investment programme begins to demonstrate traction there should be scope for multiple expansion, as well as earnings revisions. A discounted cash flow valuation suggests the current share price is consistent with a return to significant profit in the medium term following the current investment phase; for 2018 our central DCF valuation of 28p would still put the shares on a tentative normalised earnings multiple of c 30x. However, moving forward from this point, there would still be potential for substantial operationally leveraged profit improvement.

Comparator valuations

There are limited relevant quoted peers for Share and, in the current investment phase for the company, the comparison is complicated by depressed near-term profitability. In the table below we have collated comparative figures for Share with two other investment platform businesses: Hargreaves Lansdown and Alliance Trust Savings (subsidiary of Alliance Trust: click here for Edison research). Alliance Trust Savings has been in a sustained investment phase and last year recorded an FY15 loss (before an unusual provision) of £3m, although management expects it to move into profit in FY16. The valuation of Alliance Trust Savings of £54m is an external valuation for the board of Alliance Trust based on discounted cash flow, revenue and EBITDA multiples. The valuation metrics (Exhibit 5) show a considerable range between industry leader, Hargreaves Lansdown, Share and Alliance Trust Savings. Hargreaves Lansdown benefits from scale and has a strong growth record. Not only does it trade at a substantially higher percentage of AUA and multiple of revenues, but also commands a prospective P/E ratio of more than 30x for both FY16 and FY17 (Reuters collected consensus). Compared with Alliance Trust Savings, Share trades on a markedly lower multiple of revenues but, reflecting a higher revenue yield, a higher value in relation to assets under administration.

Alliance Trust Savings acquired Stocktrade, the execution-only stockbroking business, from Brewin Dolphin last May for £14m, equivalent to 0.3% of assets under administration and c 1.6x revenue. This suggests there may be acquisition opportunities at relatively attractive prices, but also reflects uncertainty over the stickiness of assets in the event of such a change in ownership.

Exhibit 5: Peer comparison

£m unless stated

Share

Alliance Trust Savings

Hargreaves Lansdown

Market capital

37.6

6272.0

Surplus capital (assumes cover of twice the regulatory requirement)

7.8

70.2

Adjusted value

29.8

54.0*

6201.8

Revenue

14.1

13.7

308.9

Assets under administration (AUA)

2,800

11,500

58,800

Market capital/revenue (x)

2.7

N/A

20.3

Market capital/AUA (%)

1.3

N/A

10.7

Adjusted value/revenue (x)

2.1

3.9

20.1

Adjusted value/AUA (%)

1.1

0.5

10.5

Source: Edison Investment research, companies’ disclosures. Note: Alliance Trust Savings AUA includes assumed transfer of Stocktrade assets. *Valuation from Alliance Trust FY15 annual report.

Conclusions from this comparison are not clear-cut, but we would not see the Share valuation as expensive in this context, subject to successful execution of its investment programme. Further partnership deals or an accretive acquisition could augment scale and earnings, prompting a higher valuation on the measures shown.

Discounted cash flow

Our amended forecasts for Share currently assume a move into loss this year as spending rises, followed by a continuation but significant narrowing of this loss in 2017. To capture the expected benefits of the investment for growth we have made a tentative forecast for 2018 that assumes a recovery to an operating profit of c £0.3m (still somewhat below the 2014 figure). In the following two years (2019-20) we have applied a high growth rate (60%) to net cash flow and then assumed seven years of growth at 5%. Other assumptions include a discount rate of 10% and a terminal multiple of 10x. Exhibit 6 shows variations around our central valuation of 28p as a result of flexing the discount rate and the scale of 2019-20 growth.

Exhibit 6: Discounted cash flow valuation sensitivity (pence per share)

Discount rate (right)
2019 & 2020 growth

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

0%

20.1

19.4

18.9

18.3

17.9

30%

24.9

23.9

22.9

22.1

21.3

60%

31.1

29.5

28.0

26.8

25.6

80%

35.8

33.8

32.0

30.4

28.9

Source: Edison Investment Research

Financials

Changes in estimates

The main changes in our estimates are driven by the assumption of significantly higher costs as Share invests in upgrading its IT infrastructure to improve the customer experience and to help attract a broader age range to its services. Costs for 2016 are estimated to increase by c £1.6m (nearly 11%). While some of this spending may reduce in subsequent years, much will be ongoing. Our revenue assumption is lower, reflecting the uncertain investment background. We have cut back our dividend assumption reflecting the new policy linking the payout with earnings, although a sale of the remaining holding in the London Stock Exchange could be a factor in the board deciding on a higher payment.

Exhibit 7: Estimate revisions

Revenue (£m)

PBT (£m)

EPS (p)

Dividend (p)

Old

New

% chg

Old

New

% chg

Old

New

% chg

Old

New

% chg

2015

14.3

14.1

-2%

1.1

0.6

-49%

0.7

0.40

-42%

0.75

0.74

0%

2016e

15.4

14.6

-5%

1.5

(0.8)

-153%

0.9

(0.43)

-148%

0.90

0.20

-78%

2017e

N/A

16.1

N/A

0.3

N/A

0.18

N/A

0.20

Source: Edison Investment Research

Substantial capital headroom and liquidity

The balance sheet remains strong with year end total capital resources standing at £17.9m compared with a regulatory requirement of £5.0m. The company had no debt and cash of £11.7m, together with available for sale investments of £7.6m (the remaining holding of London Stock Exchange shares is currently worth c £4.2m compared with £4m at the year end).

Exhibit 8: Financial summary (£000 except where stated)

Year end 31 December

2013

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

PROFIT & LOSS

Account fees

6,200

6,610

6,400

6,600

7,260

Dealing Commissions

6,700

6,610

6,400

6,900

7,728

Interest and other income

2,100

1,800

1,250

1,100

1,100

Revenue

14,996

15,042

14,050

14,600

16,088

Cost of Sales (exc amortisation and depreciation)

(13,472)

(14,579)

(14,812)

(16,180)

(16,561)

EBITDA

1,524

463

(762)

(1,580)

(473)

Depreciation

(108)

(104)

(111)

(136)

(146)

Amortisation

(11)

(11)

(21)

(225)

(300)

Operating profit (pre exceptional)

1,405

348

(894)

(1,941)

(919)

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

0

Other

0

60

1,479

0

0

Investment revenues

311

308

276

227

227

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

1,716

716

861

(1,714)

(692)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

2,319

1,615

584

(802)

263

Tax

(385)

(109)

(196)

343

138

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

1,331

607

665

(1,371)

(554)

Profit After Tax (norm)

1,843

1,416

555

(596)

258

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) - exc treasury

142.9

143.5

139.2

140.0

140.0

EPS - normalised (p)

1.29

0.99

0.40

(0.43)

0.18

EPS - FRS3 (p)

0.93

0.42

0.48

(0.98)

(0.40)

Dividend per share (p)

0.52

0.62

0.74

0.20

0.20

EBITDA Margin (%)

10.2%

3.1%

(5.4%)

(10.8%)

(2.9%)

Normalised operating margin (%)

13.4%

8.3%

2.2%

(7.0%)

0.2%

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets (mainly Investments)

6,721

9,405

8,083

9,015

9,007

Current Assets

28,267

21,316

19,716

17,229

17,767

Total Assets

34,988

30,721

27,799

26,244

26,774

Current Liabilities

(14,394)

(8,450)

(7,681)

(7,982)

(8,795)

Long term Liabilities

(1,187)

(1,594)

(1,418)

(1,418)

(1,418)

Net Assets

19,407

20,677

18,700

16,844

16,561

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

1,405

348

(894)

(1,941)

(919)

Net cash from investing activities

168

(434)

1,990

(723)

(73)

Net cash from (used in) financing

(606)

(736)

(878)

(1,036)

(280)

Net Cash Flow

1,440

(971)

(992)

(2,799)

(307)

Opening net (debt)/cash

12,186

13,626

12,655

11,663

8,864

Closing net (debt)/cash

13,626

12,655

11,663

8,864

8,557

Source: Edison Investment Research, Share plc

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Research: Healthcare

ReNeuron — Update 24 March 2016

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