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StatPro Group — Update 5 August 2016

StatPro Group — Update 5 August 2016

StatPro Group

Analyst avatar placeholder

Written by

StatPro Group

Outlook underpinned by record pipeline

Interim results

Software & comp services

5 August 2016

Price

105.5p

Market cap

£68m

Net debt (£m) at 30 June 2016

9.14

Shares in issue

64.7m

Free float

73%

Code

SOG

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

24.1

42.6

33.5

Rel (local)

19.4

30.9

33.2

52-week high/low

101.5p

69.2p

Business description

StatPro Group provides cloud-based portfolio analytics solutions to the global investment community.

Next events

Revolution Performance launch

28 September 2016

Q3 trading update

Mid-October 2016

Analysts

Richard Jeans

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5729

StatPro Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Following eight years of development, StatPro is beginning to see the benefits of its cloud strategy, as it reported a 19% growth in H1 adjusted EBITDA (13% at constant currencies). This included initial contributions from Investor Analytics and InfoVest Consulting, which were acquired early in the period. StatPro has its strongest ever pipeline of new business and the final piece in the cloud strategy – Revolution Performance – is scheduled for commercial launch next month. Hence, with StatPro’s US-based financial software peers and SaaS companies trading on lofty multiples, we continue to believe there is significant upside in the shares.

Year
end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/14

32.0

2.6

2.7

2.9

39.1

2.7

12/15

30.2

2.6

2.6

2.9

40.6

2.7

12/16e

35.5

2.8

2.7

2.9

39.1

2.7

12/17e

37.6

3.7

3.7

2.9

28.5

2.7

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Interim results: Recurring revenue book up 26%

Group revenue grew by 14%, or 11% at constant currencies, to £17.6m. This included 64% growth in StatPro Revolution, the group’s cloud services platform, to £4.02m. The traditional StatPro Seven product line slipped by 12% to £8.99m. Annualised recurring revenue (ARR) jumped by 26% to £36.2m, including £4.0m from acquisitions and £3.0m from currency movements, including the impact from the sharp fall in the British pound late in the period. The group ARR provides a strong guide to future performance as 93% of group revenues are recurring, with the balance from professional services. StatPro is set to launch Revolution Performance – its transaction-based performance analytics solution – next month. Revolution Performance could provide significant upside to the numbers, as it provides an opportunity for customers to simplify their IT functions and hence reduce their total cost of ownership. Further, it processes data much faster than traditional solutions by drawing on computing power over the internet.

Forecasts: Revenues and costs rise mainly on FX

We have increased our revenue and costs forecasts, largely due to the decline in pound sterling. However, if the GBP remains depressed, we would expect further upgrades as the year progresses. EPS edge only modestly higher as we have also boosted financing costs and minority interests. Noting that the group financed the IA acquisition with US$ debt, and given the significant H1 tax payments, we have moved up our year-end net debt forecast by £0.7m to £8.6m.

Valuation: Highly scalable cloud computing upside

StatPro’s stock trades on c 39x our maintained FY16e EPS, which falls to c 29x in FY17e. Alternatively, the shares trade on c 2.0x FY17e EV/sales, one-third of the level of StatPro’s larger US peers, which mostly trade above 5x EV/sales, while US-based pure SaaS companies typically trade in the region of 4.2-7.0x EV/sales.

Forecasts: Revenues and costs rise mainly on FX

We have increased our FY16 and FY17 revenue and costs forecasts, mainly due to the decline in pound sterling. We increased Data revenue due to stronger-than-expected performance. We have also boosted financing costs and minority interests, so EPS only edges marginally higher.

Exhibit 1: Half-by-half analysis

2015

2016e

2017e

(£000s) 

H1

H2

FY

H1

H2e

FY

FY

Traditional software rental

10,270

9,220

19,490

8,990

8,704

17,694

15,694

StatPro Revolution

2,450

3,270

5,720

4,020

4,613

8,633

12,115

Data

1,680

1,660

3,340

1,810

1,804

3,614

3,686

Professional services

1,040

600

1,640

1,000

1,100

2,100

2,142

Acquisitions

0

0

0

1,730

1,725

3,455

4,008

Total revenue

15,444

14,743

30,187

17,546

17,950

35,496

37,645

Op expenses (before devt costs)

(14,433)

(13,414)

(27,847)

(16,415)

(16,152)

(32,567)

(33,747)

Capitalisation of dev costs (net)

81

431

512

158

212

370

252

Adjusted operating profit

1,092

1,760

2,852

1,289

2,010

3,299

4,150

Operating Margin

7.1%

11.9%

9.4%

7.3%

11.2%

9.3%

11.0%

Net interest

(162)

(128)

(290)

(357)

(178)

(535)

(470)

Edison profit before tax (norm)

930

1,632

2,562

932

1,833

2,765

3,680

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(32)

0

(32)

(546)

(554)

(1,100)

(1,100)

Share-based payments

(77)

(44)

(121)

(105)

(95)

(200)

(213)

Exceptional items

0

0

0

(1,241)

0

(1,241)

0

Profit before tax (FRS 3)

821

1,588

2,409

(960)

1,184

224

2,368

Source: StatPro Group accounts, Edison Investment Research estimates

Within the divisional split we have shifted InfoVest from Traditional software to Acquisitions, which explains this category’s sharp rise while Traditional software moves up modestly. We note that InfoVest is highly profitable, as reflected in the minority interest line. More Professional services are expected to be required as Revolution Performance contracts start to roll in, as customisation and data migration work will be required. However, this work could also involve InfoVest’s ETL product line and consulting skills.

Exhibit 2: Forecast changes

Old

New

Change

Old

New

Change

(£000s) 

2016e

2016e

(%)

2017e

2017e

(%)

Revenues

 

 

Traditional software rental

17,512

17,694

1.0

15,562

15,694

0.8

StatPro Revolution

8,410

8,633

2.6

11,783

12,115

2.8

Data

3,286

3,614

10.0

3,351

3,686

10.0

Professional services

2,000

2,100

5.0

2,040

2,142

5.0

Acquisitions - Investor Analytics & InfoVest

3,205

3,455

7.8

3,671

4,008

9.2

Group revenue

34,413

35,496

3.1

36,408

37,645

3.4

Growth (%)

14.0

17.6

5.8

6.1

Gross Profit

34,413

35,496

3.1

36,408

37,645

3.4

Op expenses (before dev costs)

(31,542)

(32,567)

3.3

(32,843)

(33,747)

2.8

Capitalisation of dev costs (net)

53

370

602.6

157

252

60.7

Adjusted operating profit

2,924

3,299

12.8

3,721

4,150

11.5

Operating margin (%)

8.5

9.3

10.2

11.0

Growth (%)

2.5

15.7

27.3

25.8

Net interest

(385)

(535)

39.0

(345)

(470)

36.2

Profit before tax norm

2,539

2,765

8.9

3,376

3,680

9.0

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0

(1,100)

0

(1,100)

Share based payments

(200)

(200)

0.0

(213)

(213)

0.0

Exceptional items (net of tax)

(1,500)

(894)

(40.4)

0

0

Profit before tax

839

571

(31.9)

3,163

2,368

(25.2)

Taxation

(711)

(774)

8.9

(945)

(1,030)

9.0

Minority interest

(56)

(213)

280.4

(71)

(271)

281.3

Net income

72

(416)

(675.1)

2,147

1,066

(50.3)

Adjusted EPS (p)

2.7

2.7

0.3

3.6

3.7

0.8

Source: StatPro Group accounts, Edison Investment Research estimates

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

£'000s

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

32,001

32,486

32,018

30,187

35,496

37,645

Cost of Sales

0

0

0

0

0

0

Gross Profit

32,001

32,486

32,018

30,187

35,496

37,645

EBITDA

 

 

6,728

5,463

4,359

4,044

4,715

5,679

Adjusted Operating Profit

 

 

5,534

4,327

2,875

2,852

3,299

4,150

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(440)

(402)

(188)

(32)

(1,100)

(1,100)

Exceptionals

(693)

(347)

0

0

(894)

0

Share based payments

159

(192)

(26)

(121)

(200)

(213)

Operating Profit

4,560

3,386

2,661

2,699

1,106

2,838

Net Interest

(493)

(273)

(291)

(290)

(535)

(470)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

5,041

4,054

2,584

2,562

2,765

3,680

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

4,067

3,113

2,370

2,409

571

2,368

Tax

(1,387)

(1,030)

(774)

(788)

(774)

(1,030)

Profit After Tax (norm)

3,654

3,024

1,810

1,774

1,991

2,650

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

2,680

2,083

1,596

1,621

(203)

1,337

Minority interests

0

0

0

0

(213)

(271)

Net income (norm)

3,654

3,024

1,810

1,774

1,778

2,379

Net income (statutory)

2,680

2,083

1,596

1,621

(416)

1,066

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

62.2

67.5

67.5

67.6

66.2

65.1

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

5.9

4.5

2.7

2.6

2.7

3.7

EPS - FRS 3 (p)

 

 

4.3

3.1

2.4

2.4

(0.6)

1.6

Dividend per share (p)

2.70

2.80

2.90

2.90

2.90

2.90

Gross Margin (%)

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

21.0

16.8

13.6

13.4

13.3

15.1

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

17.3

13.3

9.0

9.4

9.3

11.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

60,272

55,992

56,113

51,857

58,054

56,995

Intangible Assets

57,683

53,524

52,546

48,613

54,876

54,029

Tangible Assets

1,974

1,883

2,470

2,233

2,167

1,955

Other assets

615

585

1,097

1,011

1,011

1,011

Current Assets

 

 

10,675

10,312

10,441

10,665

2,223

2,588

Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Debtors

6,962

6,167

7,722

8,462

9,950

10,553

Cash

3,681

4,014

2,692

2,203

(7,727)

(7,965)

Current Liabilities

 

 

(19,927)

(18,514)

(20,271)

(19,778)

(21,638)

(22,507)

Creditors

(19,913)

(18,502)

(20,259)

(19,660)

(21,520)

(22,389)

Short term borrowings

(14)

(12)

(12)

(118)

(118)

(118)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(1,400)

(882)

(598)

(1,227)

(3,325)

(1,926)

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

(801)

(801)

(801)

Other long term liabilities

(1,400)

(882)

(598)

(426)

(2,524)

(1,125)

Net Assets

 

 

49,620

46,908

45,685

41,517

35,313

35,149

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

9,233

9,403

7,705

6,548

7,489

9,709

Net Interest

(306)

(98)

(10)

(84)

(535)

(470)

Tax

(1,261)

(1,616)

(1,173)

(832)

(1,600)

(747)

Capex

(4,187)

(4,412)

(5,904)

(4,999)

(5,209)

(5,411)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

(990)

0

0

(5,536)

(1,399)

Equity financing

5,689

0

2

64

(2,079)

0

Dividends

(1,627)

(1,856)

(1,889)

(1,960)

(1,959)

(1,920)

Net Cash Flow

7,541

431

(1,269)

(1,263)

(9,429)

(238)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

3,399

(3,667)

(4,002)

(2,680)

(1,283)

8,646

Other

(475)

(96)

(53)

(134)

(500)

()

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(3,667)

(4,002)

(2,680)

(1,283)

8,646

8,884

Source: StatPro Group accounts, Edison Investment Research estimates

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by StatPro Group and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

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Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

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Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by StatPro Group and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Research: Healthcare

ReNeuron Group — Update 5 August 2016

ReNeuron Group

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