Stride Gaming — On track for underlying margin expansion

Stride Gaming — On track for underlying margin expansion

Stride’s AGM trading update confirmed the continued momentum in its core real money gaming (RMG) vertical. The Aspers Casino partnership has had an encouraging start and Stride is well positioned to keep gaining market share. Its key differentiating factor is the high-performing proprietary platform and we expect underlying margin expansion as customers migrate from acquired businesses. We believe that visibility into the social gaming vertical (5% of revenues) remains limited and we have lowered our future revenue forecasts by c £2m per year. Our profit forecasts are unchanged. At 7.4x EV/EBITDA and 10.8x P/E for CY18, Stride trades at a meaningful discount to peers.

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Stride Gaming

On track for underlying margin expansion

AGM trading update

Travel & leisure

1 February 2018

Price

231p

Market cap

£168m

Net cash (£m) at 31 August 2017

17.4

Shares in issue

72.6m

Free float

35%

Code

STR

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(6.7)

(5.5)

1.8

Rel (local)

(4.8)

(6.0)

(5.1)

52-week high/low

259p

208p

Business description

Stride Gaming is a leading online gaming operator in the UK. It uses its proprietary and purchased software to provide online bingo and slot gaming and a social gaming mobile app. It was formed in 2012 and only operates in regulated real money gaming markets.

Next events

Interim results

May 2018

Analysts

Victoria Pease

+44 (0)20 3077 5740

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

Stride Gaming is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Stride’s AGM trading update confirmed the continued momentum in its core real money gaming (RMG) vertical. The Aspers Casino partnership has had an encouraging start and Stride is well positioned to keep gaining market share. Its key differentiating factor is the high-performing proprietary platform and we expect underlying margin expansion as customers migrate from acquired businesses. We believe that visibility into the social gaming vertical (5% of revenues) remains limited and we have lowered our future revenue forecasts by c £2m per year. Our profit forecasts are unchanged. At 7.4x EV/EBITDA and 10.8x P/E for CY18, Stride trades at a meaningful discount to peers.

Year
end

Revenue (£m)

EBITDA*
(£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

08/16

47.8

12.3

11.3

20.3

2.5

11.4

1.1

08/17

89.9

20.2

18.9

25.8

2.7

9.0

1.2

08/18e

98.6

19.2

17.0

20.2

3.0

11.4

1.3

08/19e

110.3

23.0

20.3

23.9

3.5

9.7

1.5

08/20e

119.2

25.7

22.9

27.0

4.0

8.6

1.7

Note: *Normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. EPS is fully diluted.

RMG (95% of revenues) continues to gain traction

Stride is the UK’s third largest online bingo operator and the core RMG division is performing robustly. The acquired 8Ball and Tarco businesses are now fully integrated post their earnout periods and we anticipate further synergies as customers steadily migrate to Stride’s proprietary platform. The company is well placed to manage regulatory changes, such as social responsibility and self-exclusion, and should continue gaining market share.

EBITDA forecasts unchanged: Possible upside ahead

We have lowered our social gaming revenues by c £2m per annum to reflect the limited visibility, but our EBITDA forecasts remain unchanged. Indeed, Stride’s investment into products is now in the final stages and we believe there could be margin upside to our estimates if Stride’s target synergies are achieved. In addition, we are encouraged by the progress with the Aspers Casino partnership, which will feed into RMG EBITDA from this year. We introduce FY20 estimates, which assume an 8% growth in RMG revenues and a group EBITDA margin of 21.6%.

Valuation: 7.4x EV/EBITDA, 10.8x P/E for CY18

Stride is fully regulated, successfully increasing market share, growing well ahead of the sector average and generating cash, with a progressive dividend policy. However, its 7.4x EV/EBITDA and 10.8x P/E for CY18 remain below the peer group averages of 9.3x and 13.3x. Now that the earnout periods for 8Ball and Tarco have ended, we would expect to see continued integration momentum, which should lead to a progressive closing of the valuation discount.

AGM trading update

Third largest online bingo operator, gaining market share

Stride is the UK’s third largest online bingo operator and the AGM trading update confirmed that the core RMG division is performing robustly. The acquired 8Ball and Tarco businesses are now out of earnout period and we anticipate further synergies, as customers steadily migrate to Stride’s proprietary platform. We are encouraged by progress with the Aspers Casino partnership, which will feed into EBITDA this year. Stride is well positioned to manage ongoing regulatory changes, such as social responsibility and self-exclusion, and we believe the company will continue gaining market share.

Profit estimates unchanged, introducing FY20 figures

Our core RMG estimates remain unchanged, with the point of consumption tax (POCT) already in our numbers. As highlighted last year, there is limited visibility regarding the prospects of the social gaming division (5% of revenues) and we have prudently lowered our revenue forecasts by c £2m per annum. However, with less associated social marketing costs, our social gaming EBITDA remains unchanged.

We also introduce FY20 figures, where we estimate revenues growing 8% to £119.2m, with an EBITDA margin of 21.6%.

Investment into platform could lead to additional margin upside

Investment into the product and proprietary platform is now in the final stages and, as detailed at Stride’s FY17 results presentation, the company has ambitious plans to increase yields, as well as lower distribution costs across the acquired businesses. These targets are not fully reflected in our estimates and there could therefore be margin upside to our figures if the company’s goals are achieved. Please see our November update for more information.

Exhibit 1: Analysis of distribution costs (% of revenue) and yield per player

Source: Stride Gaming November 2017 Investor Presentation

Exhibit 2: Stride Gaming divisional forecasts

£m

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18e

FY19e

FY20e

Real money gaming (RMG)

26.7

35.0

81.8

93.6

104.5

112.9

Social gaming

1.1

12.8

8.1

5.0

5.8

6.3

Net gaming revenue (NGR)

27.8

47.8

89.9

98.6

110.3

119.2

COS (POC gaming tax)

(2.8)

(5.4)

(11.6)

(16.8)

(19.3)

(20.9)

% of RMG NGR

10.3%

15.4%

14.2%

18.0%

18.5%

18.5%

Gross profit

25.1

42.4

78.3

81.7

90.9

98.3

Marketing cost

(7.0)

(10.9)

(22.6)

(24.2)

(27.0)

(29.2)

Marketing % of revenue

25.2%

22.8%

25.1%

24.5%

24.5%

24.5%

Other distribution costs

(2.9)

(7.8)

(16.0)

(17.1)

(18.9)

(19.9)

Other distribution % of revenue

10.4%

16.2%

17.8%

17.3%

17.1%

16.7%

Admin costs

(7.8)

(11.4)

(19.4)

(21.3)

(22.0)

(23.6)

Admin % of revenue

28.2%

23.9%

21.6%

21.6%

19.9%

19.8%

Adjusted EBITDA

7.3

12.3

20.2

19.2

23.0

25.7

RMG EBITDA

7.0

8.2

19.7

18.6

22.0

24.5

Social gaming EBITDA

0.3

4.1

0.6

0.6

1.1

1.2

Adjusted EBITDA margin

26.3%

25.8%

22.5%

19.5%

20.9%

21.6%

RMG EBITDA margin %

26.4%

23.5%

24.0%

19.9%

21.0%

21.7%

Social gaming EBITDA margin %

24.3%

32.0%

7.1%

12.0%

19.0%

19.0%

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research


Exhibit 3: Financial summary

£m

2015

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

2020e

August

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

27.8

47.8

89.9

98.6

110.3

119.2

Cost of Sales

(2.8)

(5.4)

(11.6)

(16.8)

(19.3)

(20.9)

Gross Profit

25.1

42.4

78.3

81.7

90.9

98.3

EBITDA

 

 

7.3

12.3

20.2

19.2

23.0

25.7

Operating Profit (norm)

 

 

7.3

12.0

19.4

17.5

20.8

23.4

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(2.5)

(4.2)

(7.8)

(7.8)

(7.8)

(7.8)

Exceptionals

(3.3)

(5.1)

(36.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Share based payments

(1.0)

(1.9)

(1.8)

(1.8)

(1.8)

(1.8)

Operating Profit

0.4

0.8

(26.2)

7.9

11.2

13.9

Net Interest

(0.1)

(0.7)

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

7.2

11.3

18.9

17.0

20.3

22.9

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

0.4

0.1

(26.7)

7.4

10.7

13.4

Tax (reported)

0.1

(0.5)

1.1

(0.7)

(0.8)

(0.9)

Profit After Tax (norm)

6.2

10.9

18.2

16.3

19.5

22.0

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

0.4

(0.4)

(25.6)

6.7

9.9

12.5

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

43.8

51.5

67.3

74.5

76.0

76.0

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

14.2

21.2

27.1

21.9

25.6

29.0

EPS - normalised fully diluted (p)

 

 

14.0

20.3

25.8

20.2

23.9

27.0

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

0.9

(0.8)

(38.1)

9.0

13.1

16.4

Dividend per share (p)

0.00

2.50

2.70

3.00

3.50

4.00

Gross Margin (%)

90.1

88.7

87.1

82.9

82.5

82.5

EBITDA Margin (%)

26.3

25.8

22.5

19.5

20.9

21.6

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

26.1

25.0

21.6

17.7

18.8

19.7

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

37.1

78.7

61.1

53.9

46.1

38.6

Intangible Assets

36.4

73.6

57.8

50.2

42.1

34.2

Tangible Assets

0.2

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.3

1.7

Investments

0.5

4.4

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

Current Assets

 

 

11.7

27.1

36.5

33.9

49.9

66.4

Stocks

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Debtors

4.2

5.8

9.9

7.0

8.0

8.0

Cash

7.4

21.1

26.2

26.4

41.4

57.9

Other

0.0

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

Current Liabilities

 

 

(7.7)

(26.1)

(35.7)

(15.8)

(17.6)

(17.6)

Creditors

(5.2)

(16.3)

(31.3)

(13.3)

(15.0)

(15.0)

Player balances

(1.4)

(1.8)

(2.4)

(2.5)

(2.6)

(2.6)

Short term borrowings

(1.1)

(8.0)

(2.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(10.2)

(10.5)

(7.1)

(6.5)

(6.5)

(6.5)

Long term borrowings

(8.0)

0.0

(4.4)

(4.0)

(4.0)

(4.0)

Other long term liabilities

(2.2)

(10.5)

(2.6)

(2.5)

(2.5)

(2.5)

Net Assets

 

 

30.8

69.2

54.9

65.4

71.9

80.8

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

4.6

14.4

14.3

17.3

20.7

23.1

Net Interest

0.0

(0.6)

(0.6)

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

Tax

(0.1)

(0.7)

(1.4)

(0.7)

(0.8)

(0.9)

Capex

(0.6)

(1.9)

(2.0)

(2.3)

(2.3)

(2.5)

Acquisitions/disposals

(18.1)

(22.2)

(1.9)

(26.8)

0.0

0.0

Financing

10.4

25.9

(0.5)

17.5

0.0

0.0

Dividends

(3.0)

(0.6)

(1.8)

(1.9)

(2.3)

(2.6)

Net Cash Flow

(6.6)

14.4

6.1

2.5

14.9

16.6

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

0.0

3.1

(11.3)

(17.4)

(19.9)

(34.8)

Moving in player balances

1.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other adjustments

2.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.0)

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

3.1

(11.3)

(17.4)

(19.9)

(34.8)

(51.3)

Source: Stride Gaming accounts, Edison Investment Research

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DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Stride Gaming and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Research: Consumer

Rank Group — Operational efficiencies keep forecasts intact

Similar to last year’s trends, Rank reported that total Venues l-f-l revenues declined by 1%, mainly due to lower customer visits. This was offset by a 16% increase in Digital, where Mecca digital has clearly turned the corner. To reflect the lighter result in Venues, we have lowered our FY18 and FY19 revenue estimates by c 2-3%, but improved operational efficiencies mean that our profit forecasts are largely unchanged. The business model remains highly cash generative, with £4m net cash achieved at H118 and the stock’s trading multiples are attractive at 6.8x EV/EBITDA, 13.6x P/E and 8.1% free cash flow yield for CY18.

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