Treatt — Consolidating gains

Treatt (LSE: TET)

Last close As at 27/03/2024

420.00

2.00 (0.48%)

Market capitalisation

257m

More on this equity

Research: Consumer

Treatt — Consolidating gains

The FY18 trading update confirms that momentum continues to drive Treatt’s business. Following the exceptional results posted throughout FY17, Treatt witnessed like-for-like revenue growth of 10% in H118, and 9% for FY18, suggesting some deceleration in H2. Growth remains broad-based, with all core categories contributing, and demonstrating that the business is well-placed to capitalise on current trends in the food and beverage space. Management’s outlook and expectations for the year remain unchanged, but we trim our forecasts to reflect gross margin headwinds.

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Consumer

Treatt

Consolidating gains

FY18 trading update

Food & beverages

8 October 2018

Price

480.00p

Market cap

£280m

Net cash (£m) at 31 March 2018

6.5

Shares in issue

58.2m

Free float

100%

Code

TET

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(1.0)

9.8

1.9

Rel (local)

0.1

14.0

4.2

52-week high/low

508.0p

395.0p

Business description

Treatt provides innovative ingredient solutions from its manufacturing bases in Europe, North America and Africa, principally for the flavours and fragrance industries and multinational consumer goods companies, with particular emphasis on the beverage sector.

Next events

FY18 results

27 November 2018

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Paul Hickman

+44 (0)20 3681 2501

Treatt is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

The FY18 trading update confirms that momentum continues to drive Treatt’s business. Following the exceptional results posted throughout FY17, Treatt witnessed like-for-like revenue growth of 10% in H118, and 9% for FY18, suggesting some deceleration in H2. Growth remains broad-based, with all core categories contributing, and demonstrating that the business is well-placed to capitalise on current trends in the food and beverage space. Management’s outlook and expectations for the year remain unchanged, but we trim our forecasts to reflect gross margin headwinds.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

09/16

88.0

9.6

14.3

4.4

33.6

0.9

09/17

109.6

14.0

20.4

4.8

23.5

1.0

09/18e

110.5

13.8

18.4

5.0

26.0

1.0

09/19e

116.1

14.2

18.9

5.3

25.4

1.1

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Expansion on track

Treatt is simultaneously undergoing two ambitious expansion projects in two main markets: the US and the UK. The expansion of its US site (which will provide more than 80% growth in footprint once complete) is on track and will be fully operational by H119. It will have been completed on time and on budget, which is no mean feat, and reinforces management’s strong track record. The UK relocation plans are also progressing well, although we have updated our forecasts to reflect some expenditure being shifted from FY19 into FY20 as the design phase is not yet complete.

Lower tax rate offset by higher raw materials and FX

The lower tax rate benefit flagged in March has been offset by increased raw material costs and adverse FX movements during the year. Some pricing pressure on new business wins has also resulted in gross margins falling slightly in both H218 and FY18, and increased headcount will weigh on operating margins. On the cash flow front, a large increase in working capital is attributable only in part to timing issues, but also relates to longer payment terms with a number of larger customers. The balance sheet remains extremely well-funded, with a net cash position forecast at end FY18 following the equity fund-raise in November 2018.

Valuation: Fair value of 510p

We value Treatt using a DCF model, which indicates a fair value of 510p (previously 540p). Treatt trades at 25.2x and 17.4x calendar P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples for 2019, broadly in line with its ingredients peer group. We have cut our forecasts to reflect some gross margin pressure, but we believe the business remains in good shape to continue to capitalise on the underlying trends in the food and beverages space and to deliver growth.

Forecast revisions

We detail our key changes to P&L forecasts in Exhibit 1 below. Following the pre-close trading update, our sales forecasts move up by c 1%, in line with the new guidance for FY18. We leave our growth rates unchanged for forecast years, and hence the higher base causes the uplift in sales in the subsequent years. We have cut our gross and operating margin assumptions given the commentary regarding higher raw material costs, adverse FX, and new contract wins at lower margin. We have also made some changes to our net debt assumptions given the greater clarity regarding working capital movements, and the timing of spend on the capital projects. We illustrate these in Exhibit 2 and these affect our PBT and EPS forecasts via the interest charge.

Exhibit 1: Old vs new key P&L forecasts

EPS (p)*

PBT (£000s)*

Sales (£000s)

Old

New

% change

Old

New

% change

Old

New

% change

2018e

17.2

16.2

-5.9%

13,264

12,479

-5.9%

109,301

110,545

1.1%

2019e

19.1

17.0

-10.9%

14,729

13,122

-10.9%

114,766

116,073

1.1%

2020e

20.1

17.7

-11.9%

15,472

13,631

-11.9%

119,357

120,715

1.1%

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Stated on company normalised basis, which is pre-exceptional but after amortisation of acquired intangibles and share-based payments.

Exhibit 2: Old vs new net cash/(debt) forecasts, £000s

Old

New

% change

2018e

18,283

2,158

-88.2%

2019e

1,377

(8,815)

-740.2%

2020e

10,461

(11,872)

-213.5%

Source: Edison Investment Research

Valuation

We illustrate Treatt’s relative valuation versus its ingredients peer group in Exhibit 3 below. Treatt trades at a discount to its peer group on a P/E basis, and broadly in line on an EV/EBITDA basis. We believe some discount is justified to reflect its small size and because some of its products are relatively ‘upstream’ in the ingredients spectrum, particularly the bulk ingredients that are sold to other ingredients companies.

Exhibit 3: Benchmark valuation

P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

Dividend yield (%)

Market cap (m)

2018

2019

2018

2019

2018

2019

Givaudan

CHF22,281

29.1

25.8

21.0

18.5

2.5%

2.7%

IFF

$12,516

22.1

21.5

18.7

16.6

1.7%

2.1%

Symrise

CHF11,818

34.4

30.3

18.5

16.6

1.2%

1.3%

Frutarom

ILS22,774

30.6

27.8

20.1

18.2

0.3%

0.4%

Chr Hansen

DKK82,592

47.8

41.6

30.7

27.2

1.6%

1.9%

Kerry

€16,466

26.6

24.2

18.7

16.8

0.7%

0.8%

Ingredion

$7,346

13.8

12.9

8.1

7.5

2.3%

2.4%

Peer group average

29.2

26.3

19.4

17.3

1.3%

1.5%

Treatt

£283.1

26.6

25.9

19.7

17.8

1.0%

1.1%

Premium/(discount) to peer group (%)

(9.0%)

(1.5%)

1.5%

2.8%

(21.9%)

(26.7%)

Source: Bloomberg (prices as of 4 October 2018). Note: Treatt figures are calendarised to aid comparison.

Our DCF-derived fair value falls from 540p to 510p due to our cuts to forecasts detailed above. Our longer-term sales growth forecast remains at 5.0% pa, falling to 2% growth in perpetuity. Our DCF is calculated based on a WACC of 6.8% (encompassing a beta of 0.8, an equity risk premium of 5.0% and a borrowing spread of 5.0%) and a terminal growth rate of 2%.

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

£000's

2015

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

2020e

Year end September

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

85,934

88,040

109,627

110,545

116,073

120,715

Cost of Sales

(66,955)

(67,639)

(82,819)

(83,838)

(88,030)

(91,431)

Gross Profit

18,979

20,401

26,808

26,707

28,042

29,285

EBITDA

 

 

10,307

11,604

16,307

15,714

16,825

19,141

Operating Profit (before amort., except and sbp.)

 

 

9,063

10,257

14,908

13,871

14,269

14,952

Intangible Amortisation

(175)

(142)

(137)

(160)

(160)

(160)

Share based payments

(198)

(566)

(966)

(1,131)

(899)

(934)

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

8,690

9,549

13,805

12,580

13,209

13,858

Net Interest

(740)

(703)

(913)

(101)

(87)

(227)

Exceptionals

(174)

(553)

0

3,000

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

8,323

9,554

13,995

13,771

14,182

14,726

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

7,776

8,293

12,892

15,479

13,122

13,631

Profit Before Tax (company)

 

 

7,950

8,846

12,892

12,479

13,122

13,631

Tax

(1,786)

(2,144)

(3,347)

(3,182)

(3,346)

(3,476)

Profit After Tax (norm)

6,537

7,410

10,648

10,589

10,836

11,250

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

5,990

6,149

9,545

12,297

9,776

10,155

Discontinued operations

700

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

51.5

51.9

52.2

57.4

57.4

57.4

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

12.7

14.3

20.4

18.4

18.9

19.6

EPS - normalised & fully diluted (p)

 

 

12.6

14.1

19.8

17.9

18.3

19.0

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

11.6

11.8

18.3

21.4

17.0

17.7

Dividend per share (p)

4.0

4.4

4.8

5.0

5.3

5.5

Gross Margin (%)

22.1

23.2

24.5

24.2

24.2

24.3

EBITDA Margin (%)

12.0

13.2

14.9

14.2

14.5

15.9

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

10.5

11.7

13.6

12.5

12.3

12.4

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

13,381

16,161

19,532

31,188

47,632

56,094

Intangible Assets

1,736

3,364

3,331

3,171

3,011

2,851

Tangible Assets

10,998

11,361

14,821

26,637

43,241

51,863

Investments

647

1,436

1,380

1,380

1,380

1,380

Current Assets

 

 

45,045

54,435

68,230

76,969

80,116

82,648

Stocks

25,799

29,990

42,878

45,448

47,488

49,146

Debtors

17,635

17,853

19,973

26,773

27,880

28,753

Cash

1,477

6,588

4,748

4,748

4,748

4,748

Other

134

4

631

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(13,481)

(16,388)

(27,003)

(18,570)

(25,798)

(27,903)

Creditors

(12,675)

(15,834)

(19,266)

(16,843)

(16,757)

(16,823)

Short term borrowings

(567)

(487)

(7,680)

(1,727)

(9,042)

(11,080)

Provisions

(239)

(67)

(57)

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(11,760)

(17,021)

(14,281)

(8,248)

(11,706)

(12,525)

Long term borrowings

(7,065)

(7,755)

(7,293)

(863)

(4,521)

(5,540)

Other long term liabilities

(4,695)

(9,266)

(6,988)

(7,385)

(7,185)

(6,985)

Net Assets

 

 

33,185

37,187

46,478

81,339

90,244

98,314

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

8,667

10,804

4,683

8,171

13,392

16,476

Net Interest

(740)

(703)

(913)

(101)

(87)

(227)

Tax

(1,469)

(2,022)

(2,822)

(3,182)

(3,346)

(3,476)

Capex

(924)

(679)

(5,111)

(20,658)

(19,161)

(12,811)

Acquisitions/disposals

(103)

(861)

(1,667)

9,900

1,100

0

Financing

147

280

270

20,759

0

0

Dividends

(1,978)

(2,095)

(3,025)

(2,506)

(2,871)

(3,019)

Net Cash Flow

3,600

4,724

(8,585)

12,383

(10,973)

(3,057)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

9,584

6,155

1,654

10,225

(2,158)

8,815

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

(171)

(223)

14

0

0

(0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

6,155

1,654

10,225

(2,158)

8,815

11,872

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Treatt and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Treatt and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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