Tungsten Corporation — Update 23 February 2016

Tungsten Corporation (LN: TUNG)

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37.70

2.20 (6.20%)

Market capitalisation

48m

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Research: Financials

Tungsten Corporation — Update 23 February 2016

Tungsten Corporation

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Financials

Tungsten Corporation

EBITDA breakeven forecast reiterated

Capital markets day

Financial services

24 February 2016

Price

76.5p

Market cap

£96m

Net cash (£m) at end October 2015

39.7

Shares in issue

1,260m

Free float

69%

Code

TUNG

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

24.4

117.0

(62.1)

Rel (local)

23.2

129.4

(56.9)

52-week high/low

215.0p

31.0p

Business description

Tungsten Corporation operates a global e-invoicing network, as well as providing value-added services such as spend analytics to help buyers on its network save money, and invoice financing to suppliers to enable them to receive early payment on their invoices.

Next event

FY16 trading update

May 2016

Analyst

Peter Thorne

+44 (0)20 3077 5765

Tungsten Corporation is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

At its recent capital markets day (CMD), Tungsten reiterated its financial targets and presented some of the measures it is undertaking to achieve them. If the business develops as it expects, Tungsten believes its current cash resources should be enough to allow it to meet its targets, while the cash resources tied up in its bank give it leeway. Tungsten is renewing its invoice financing initiative with a new, experienced leader to start in April 2016, with a wide-ranging strategy for winning business. It remains convinced about the long-term profit potential of these businesses. Tungsten’s shares have performed strongly since the start of the year and we estimate the market is applying a cost of equity of c 11% to its cash flows, down from c 24% when we initiated in January.

Year end

Revenue*
(£m)

EBITDA*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

04/14

10.8

(10.2)

(18.6)

0.0

N/A

N/A

04/15

23.1

(24.8)

(26.3)

0.0

N/A

N/A

04/16e

27.7

(18.0)

(21.2)

0.0

N/A

N/A

04/17e

34.6

(9.8)

(6.1)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *Revenue, EBITDA and EPS are indicative and based on management projections for FY16 and FY17.

Profitability forecast reiterated

At its CMD Tungsten reported it is on track to achieve break even on an EBITDA level by the end of FY17 and Q316 trading to end January 2016 was broadly in line with market expectations. The company expects that free cash at the end of FY16 should exceed £8m. It is reassuring to hear these comments given the company’s history and concerns about its liquidity situation.

Tungsten’s business restructured

Tungsten explained how it believes it has significantly restructured its activities to enable profitable revenue growth and achieve the operational gearing that should be possible for business with a fixed cost base and growing revenue. Tungsten has implemented significant changes throughout its business. These include changes to its leadership team, to its organisational structure, to its use of technology and to its relationships with its customers. The new CEO has undertaken a bottom-up reassessment of its business. In this note we explain the measures the company has taken.

Valuation: Reduction in Tungsten’s risk premium

Tungsten’s shares have risen over 60% since the start of the year. We now estimate that the equity market is applying a cost of equity of around 11% to Tungsten’s cash flows, from 24% at the beginning of January. To maintain this share price improvement, Tungsten needs to execute on its plans to grow its business’s profitability.

Tungsten Network

Core activity being targeted for profitability

Tungsten Network, the core operating activity of Tungsten Corporation, participates in the global supply chain by allowing some 180 buyers to electronically process e-invoices from around 200,000 registered suppliers digitally rather than by paper and so allow buyers and suppliers to save costs. E-invoicing is a fast-growing business – Tungsten quotes an industry source (Billentis) forecasting compound annual growth of 20% per year in e-invoice volumes from 2010 to 2020, but it is fragmented and has historically been unprofitable for Tungsten with the buyers and suppliers obtaining virtually all of the benefits, as we explained in our January 2016 initiation note. The average EBITDA margin earned by Tungsten was c -14% from 2011 to 2015 inclusive and was -18% in H116.

Tungsten plans for Tungsten Network to achieve EBITDA profitability on a run-rate basis by the end of FY17 by undertaking the following measures:

increasing the prices the buyers on the network pay for the services they receive;

controlling costs of running the network so that cost growth is decoupled from revenue growth; and

increasing the number of suppliers using the network.

In our initiation note we estimated that EBITDA break even could be achieved by FY17 and the EBITDA margin rise to 36% by 2020 if the company were to:

increase average buyer revenue from £63,583 per buyer in FY15 to £108,660 in FY20;

restrict underlying costs growth from £25.4m in FY15 to £32m in FY20; and

increase buyers from 173 in 2015 to 247 in 2020 and suppliers from 181,000 to 333,000 over that period.

During the CMD Tungsten outlined various measures it is undertaking that it believes will enable it to achieve its financial targets. In the following sections we have grouped these into two categories, those that support revenue growth and those that help control costs.

Revenue growth

In our initiation note we explained how an average buyer price of c £108,660 would be more than justified by the value buyers receive compared with paper processing. In H116 Tungsten managed price increases of 70% for 14 buyers. Though Tungsten did not give an update on the re-pricing achieved in Q316 during the CMD, it did elaborate on the measures it is implementing that it considers will contribute to revenue growth through higher pricing and increased buyer/supplier numbers. These include:

Standardising contracts. In the past Tungsten Network had bespoke contracts for each of its customers, which added considerably to its service costs. Even routine queries about the contracts had to be checked against the database, making the contracts comparatively expensive to service and inflexible. Moreover, many of them were found to “auto renew” and be “front-end loaded” so that Tungsten often found itself serving customers who were processing many times the number of invoices than envisaged when the contract was initiated. The contracts were renewed without the appropriate re-evaluations being made. Tungsten has been systematically going through all of its contracts to standardize them as much as possible, which should boost revenues and control costs.

Standard revenue model for buyers. This will consist of an implementation fee paid by the buyer when it joins the network, an annual fixed fee and a variable fee based on transaction volume. Previously Tungsten did not charge an implementation fee on a consistent basis despite the costs of on-boarding buyers and suppliers to its network. Tungsten believes the combination of fixed and variable transaction fees will offer favourable incentives for buyers to increase volumes through the Tungsten Network (more suppliers and more invoices per supplier) to cover the fixed costs.

Upgrading sales penetration. Tungsten has upgraded its saleforce so it is engaging with more influential individuals such as CFOs and corporate treasurers rather than the mid-level accounts payable executives with whom it was previously dealing. Tungsten believes that presenting itself as a strategic problem solver to organisations rather than just a processor of invoices will boost its revenues from buyers.

Working with partners. Tungsten is also seeking to expand its partnership offerings. It provides its e-invoicing service to the customers of a US bank, PNC, on a white-label basis and is aiming to develop similar partnerships elsewhere. This should reduce the cost of Tungsten to acquire additional customers and also boost revenue.

A holistic operating structure. Tungsten Network was originally organised into two pillars, one for buyers and one for suppliers. In the past, a buyer joining the network would tell Tungsten which suppliers it wanted to be on-boarded, then there would be insufficient contact between Tungsten staff looking after the buyers and those looking after the suppliers. Tungsten has found there needs to be a more holistic approach to reap on-boarding and cross-selling opportunities. Now one point of contact is responsible for both in an end-to-end process. This should be particularly helpful for on-boarding suppliers as Tungsten personnel will now be able to inform suppliers how keen the buyers (their customers) are that they join the Tungsten network. With knowledge about its suppliers, Tungsten sales teams should also be more effective in turning suppliers on the network into buyers of its services.

Improvements in IT. The Tungsten Network IT infrastructure was developed over 15 years and its predecessor organisation, OB10, was one of the pioneers in the field of e-invoicing. This has resulted in a network that was good for e-invoicing but was not state of art for undertaking other activities, including maintenance and expansion. Under a new chief technology officer (it did not have one before) Tungsten is revitalising its technology platform to implement current best practice across its businesses. Among the measures being implemented are:

The use of end-to-end digital processes to accelerate the on-boarding of buyers and suppliers and increase revenue growth. Tungsten will use Salesforce CRM technology to communicate internally in a way that is impossible manually given the size of its network. For example, if a supplier had not sent invoices in one month to a certain set of buyers, but had done so previously according to records, Salesforce could identify the exception and inform the supplier. If the absence was an error, this could be speedily corrected and Tungsten earn transaction fees as well as the goodwill of the customer. Previously the supplier may have ended up having to send paper invoices to correct any error.

Using artificial intelligence (AI) to cut costs and accelerate supplier on-boarding and thereby increase revenue for Tungsten. For instance, with 90% accuracy according to Tungsten, AI can confirm that the identity of a supplier given to Tungsten by one of its buyers is the same as that already given by another buyer and already on the network. This avoids the need to manually check the credentials of each supplier and does so within seconds rather than days, saving costs and allowing suppliers to be on-boarded quicker and enabling Tungsten to achieve higher revenue growth.

Linking more buyers and suppliers to Tungsten using API (application program interface) to avoid the need for manual intervention.

Creating a Tungsten store for its c 200,000 registered suppliers to acquire business services such as insurance, shipping, office services etc. Tungsten is not proposing a comprehensive catalogue of thousands of items/services, but just a few that its suppliers may want. This could provide an additional revenue stream for Tungsten.

Cost control

Tungsten Network’s cost control ambitions rest heavily on its use of IT and digitalisation to lower costs of on-boarding buyers and suppliers and reduce the costs of processing invoices. Many of these IT initiatives are connected to those it is proposing to implement to boost revenue growth but they are so important for achieving its ambitions to control costs that we believe they should be reiterated in the context of saving costs. The main initiatives discussed at the CMD were:

Replace the core network with modern, modular technologies. These are cheaper to operate and maintain and are more flexible.

Fully automate on-boarding processes, especially for suppliers. Tools are being developed to allow suppliers to on-board themselves. This should reduce errors and costs, which had been significant for Tungsten Network.

Automate the response to frequently asked questions. Tungsten has said that just under 50% of the questions suppliers ask relate to their desire to send an invoice to a buyer who they believe could be on the network but who did not invite them to it. Tungsten Network has automated this process so it can be completed at a click of a button rather than require numerous email conversations.

The use of AI to on-board suppliers without the requirement to manually check on them, which is more expensive.

API to link buyers and suppliers to Tungsten digitally, reducing the costs of processing invoices.

Invoice financing

Tungsten reiterated its ambition to develop a significant invoice financing business. It has appointed a senior figure from the banking industry with experience in invoice financing to head its revitalised invoice financing activities. He is due to start work in April 2016.

Tungsten’s initial attempts to develop invoice financing have not been as successful as it originally envisaged. Since it stated offering an invoice financing service in October 2014, Tungsten has financed £104m of invoices to January 2016. During that time around £131bn of invoices were processed through the Tungsten network, of which around half were probably in the US and UK where it is targeting its invoice financing efforts. Industry statistics suggest that around 8.5% of invoices processed are probably subject to invoice financing, implying a financing market of around £5.5bn from Tungsten’s US and UK activities. As we explained in our initiation note, Tungsten has attributed the low penetration of its invoice financing offering to:

a cumbersome and time-consuming procedure for suppliers to qualify for invoice financing; and

a disconnect between the accounts payable staff, who were its usual point of contact with at a supplier, and the CEO/treasurer who makes invoice financing decisions.

We can also add that entrenched supplier relationships with their existing invoice financing partners, often part of a bank with whom they may have had a strong business relationship for years, has probably also held back the growth of Tungsten’s invoice financing activities.

It will take some time for the new appointment to design and implement his own strategy for Tungsten’s invoice financing activities. In the meantime, Tungsten will undertake some measures that it believes will develop its invoice financing efforts.

Upgrading Tungsten’s sales team to address higher-level employees at its customers would help promote its capabilities with decision makers and could enhance its credibility compared with incumbent finance providers. That leaves the first identified problem, the cumbersome and time consuming procedure to on-board suppliers to be addressed.

Tungsten has focused on two activities it believes have been an impediment to it on-boarding suppliers: the requirement for invoices to have a payment defined date (PDD) specified by the buyer; and the requirement for buyers to set up bank accounts specifically for paying invoices, which Tungsten has arranged to finance.

Tungsten has said that at any one time around 90% of invoices that have been approved for payment by buyers would not have a specified PDD because that is either not the normal buyer procedure or for some reason it has not been done on a particular invoice. Its previous policy was to only consider financing invoices with a stated PDD, although it says that most of the incumbent operators in the invoice financing industry do not require a PDD. By insisting on a PDD Tungsten has considerably restricted its addressable market. In future it will not require a PDD before arranging for an invoice to be financed. There is a risk to Tungsten from doing this but it believes that its knowledge of the buyers and suppliers on its network mitigates it considerably.

Tungsten has also required its buyers set up separate bank accounts into which they will pay any sums due on invoices its suppliers have arranged to be financed through Tungsten. This meant buyers had to do additional work for the benefit of their suppliers, which proved problematic and encountered resistance. Tungsten will scrap this requirement so, in future, buyer payments will go to the suppliers who in turn will pay Tungsten or those buying the financed invoices. This means that Tungsten will incur supplier credit risk, but it believes this risk is mitigated by its detailed knowledge of transactions undertaken by buyers and suppliers. Tungsten believes this information puts it in a strong position to assess credit risk. This information could be a comparative advantage over some potential competitors.

Tungsten is also considering expanding its invoice financing offering beyond the US and UK to other countries, considerably expanding its addressable market.

Other revenue initiatives

Tungsten also announced it is considering other ways to generate additional revenue from its network. We have not included any revenue expectations from these initiatives in our forecasts, so they do represent potential upside. Tungsten indicated that it will seek to develop these initiatives through partnerships to minimise the risk and costs of undertaking them to Tungsten’s shareholders. Among the initiatives that have been suggested are:

Partnerships with local technology companies in emerging markets to expand into these markets where Tungsten Network has a comparatively limited presence. This particularly applies to China and India.

Offer currency payments. Tungsten estimates that around 20% of the invoices it processes are cross-border and that Tungsten could earn useful fees from arranging currency transactions.

Offer a VAT reclaim service for buyers.

Financials

At its CMD Tungsten re-iterated its previous guidance:

Revenue for FY16 of broadly in line with consensus of £27.7m.

EBITDA loss before one-offs for FY16 of less than £15m.

Free cash of at least £8m at end FY16 and cash outflow to reduce.

EBITDA break even on a run-rate basis by end FY17.

Sales proceeds of c.£30m in summer 2016 from the disposal of its bank; alternative measures in place to access cash at the bank if there is a delay to the sale (credit facilities or deregulation of the bank).

In our initiation note of January 2016 we calculated that if Tungsten increases buyer prices and supplier numbers as it has indicated and controls costs then its financial guidance is attainable. We have maintained our indicative financial forecasts after the CMD. These are shown in the following exhibit.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

30 April (IFRS)

£m

2014*

2015

2016e

2017e

PROFIT & LOSS

Supplier revenue

13.1

14.6

16.7

Buyer revenue

9.9

12.8

16.9

Tungsten Network

10.8

23.0

27.4

33.5

Tungsten Network Finance

0.1

0.3

1.0

Corporate centre

0.0

0.0

0.0

Revenue

 

10.8

23.1

27.7

34.6

Tungsten Network (e invoicing)

(12.1)

(28.2)

(31.7)

(32.0)

Tungsten Network Finance

(1.9)

(12.8)

(7.4)

(6.4)

Corporate centre

(7.0)

(7.0)

(6.6)

(6.0)

Administrative expenses

 

(20.9)

(48.0)

(45.7)

(44.4)

Tungsten Network

(1.3)

(5.1)

(4.3)

1.5

Tungsten Network Finance

(1.9)

(12.7)

(7.1)

(5.4)

Corporate centre

(7.0)

(7.0)

(6.6)

(6.0)

EBITDA

 

(10.2)

(24.8)

(18.0)

(9.8)

Depreciation & amortisation

(0.8)

(2.3)

(8.0)

0.0

Share based payment

0.0

0.0

(0.3)

0.0

Operating Profit

(10.9)

(27.1)

(26.3)

(9.8)

Exceptional gain

0.0

0.0

0.0

2.2

Net finance expense

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.0)

0.0

Profit Before Tax (IFRS 3)

 

(11.1)

(27.3)

(26.3)

(7.7)

Tax

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.0

Profit After Tax (IFRS 3)

(11.0)

(27.0)

(26.1)

(7.7)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

59.2

102.6

123.6

126.0

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

(18.6)

(26.3)

(21.2)

(6.1)

Dividend per share (p)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

-94.5

-107.3

-65.1

-28.4

Network statistics

Suppliers-end period

168,000

181,000

208,000

236,000

Increase

13,000

27,000

28,000

Average suppliers

154,000

174,500

194,500

222,000

Revenue per supplier £

75

75

75

Buyers-end period

124

173

187

202

Increase

49

14

15

Average buyers

123

156

180

196

Revenue per buyer £

63,583

71,271

86,238

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

115.9

131.0

120.6

121.1

Intangible Assets

114.2

128.1

117.6

117.6

Other

1.7

2.8

3.0

3.5

Current Assets

 

72.7

47.4

46.3

37.0

Trade and other receivables

6.0

8.4

8.0

8.0

Invoice receivable

0.0

6.4

0.0

0.0

Cash

62.6

32.6

9.3

29.0

Other

4.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Assets held for sale

0.0

0.0

28.9

0.0

Current Liabilities

 

14.6

17.3

15.5

14.4

Trade and other payables

6.8

8.6

6.6

6.6

Borrowing

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Deferred income

7.8

8.6

7.8

7.8

Liabilities held for sale

0.0

0.0

1.1

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

2.9

4.0

3.5

3.5

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

2.9

4.0

3.5

3.5

Net Assets

 

171.1

157.1

147.8

140.1

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

(8.1)

(31.6)

(15.5)

(7.7)

Capex

(2.3)

(1.1)

(1.0)

(0.5)

Acquisitions/disposals

(74.7)

(9.6)

0.0

4.0

Financing

144.4

11.8

16.7

0.0

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

59.2

(30.5)

0.3

(4.2)

Opening cash

3.4

62.6

32.6

33.2

Exchange adjustment

0.0

0.4

0.3

0.0

Closing cash

 

62.6

32.6

33.2

29.0

Borrowing

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing cash/(Net debt)

 

62.6

32.6

33.2

29.0

Cash in Tungsten Bank

19.5

23.9

0.0

Cash at Tungsten

 

 

13.1

9.3

29.0

Source: Tungsten, Edison Investment Research. Note:*Tungsten Network is included for six months only from date of acquisition.

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Germany

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United Kingdom

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245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

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