Order variability was referenced in H1 results, but latterly intake patterns have weakened. This has affected UK premium brands, following through into manufacturing activity also. We have reflected this in lower earnings estimates (c 10% for this year and next, with a smaller reduction for FY20) ahead of greater clarity on consumer behaviour in this segment. This news has been received harshly – judging by a sharp negative share price reaction – but feels overdone in our view.

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