Edison Investment Research

ECB: Next ECB President must keep up the pace of change

Absence of a crisis risks a slowdown in pace of eurozone financial sector reform

Author: Alastair George

In only a few weeks, European leaders will have to decide on a new ECB President to replace the incumbent Mario Draghi, whose term expires in October. Draghi has been a radical ECB president, deftly playing a difficult political hand to win support for a EUR 2.5trn ECB balance sheet expansion. In a time of crisis he offered “whatever it takes” to save the euro. We can now believe his claim that he would do enough to restore financial stability to the eurozone. Yet the ECB’s work in terms of monetary policy, regulation and eurozone financial integration is far from complete. Unlike Draghi, the incoming ECB President faces no immediate crisis. However, politically challenging further convergence of fiscal trajectories, economic growth and bank sector regulation is required to ensure the long-term viability of the eurozone project.  We believe markets would applaud an ECB President offering policy continuity in the short-term combined with the experience and political skills to ultimately drive further eurozone integration.

Yield curve a US recession signal? Maybe not this time

Alastair George, Chief Investment Strategist

Recent declines in US government bond yields have led to a flood of articles discussing the likelihood of a US recession over the next 12-18 months. This is understandable, first given the relatively strong correlation between yield curve inversions and US recessions in the past and second, the extraordinary length of the current US economic expansion. However, we believe recent correlation-focused commentary misses a key point in terms of causation. There are in our view good reasons to believe that the recession signal from the flat US yield curve is a false positive.

Brexit: EU can do it if you really want…

Prospects of an orderly exit receding but no-deal remains less likely than extension

Alastair George, Chief Investment Strategist

The obstacle in the way of the amended Withdrawal Agreement (“the deal”), a document supported by both the EU and PM May, remains the UK Parliament. However, in our view, those accusing the UK Parliament of irresponsibility may as well level that charge at the institution of parliamentary democracy, described famously as the worst form of government except for all the others. While the currently chaotic scenes may be unnerving, there appears little appetite for compromising long-standing UK democratic principles, arcane or not. A week is a long time in UK politics and the prospects of an orderly exit on schedule are now clearly receding, compared to our earlier thoughts. Even so, an extension to Article 50 remains more likely than no-deal or Article 50 revocation and a way out of the impasse is also within the EU’s power.

Brexit: PM May’s deal may finally be in sight

UK Parliament has motioned itself into a corner

This post has been updated to reflect the events of Thursday March 14.

Alastair George, Chief Investment Strategist

This week the UK Parliament has voted to avoid no-deal under any circumstances and at any time. In addition, Parliament comprehensively rejected the government’s Withdrawal Agreement, as modified by the additional instrument and declaration negotiated with the EU at the weekend. Following the votes on Thursday March 14, the choice for next week will be between supporting a short extension to Article 50 – and by implication supporting the modified Withdrawal Agreement - and a much longer extension. Under the second option of a prolonged extension, all possibilities (except perhaps no-deal) are on the table, including a new government, general election and second referendum. It is high stakes but we still cannot rule out the UK Parliament will do the “right” thing, for investors at least, by approving the Withdrawal Agreement - after trying everything else.

Brexit: The big guns go silent

PM May has quietened her opposition for now – but will it be enough?

Overnight, the UK and EU have agreed an additional instrument which provides further assurances that the Northern Ireland backstop will be temporary. In particular, should either the UK or EU act in a manner which seeks to apply the backstop indefinitely, as decided by an arbitration panel of judges, then the other party would be entitled to a suspension of its obligations under the Withdrawal Agreement. It is not a time-limit on the backstop, nor a change to the Withdrawal Agreement. It also does not give the UK a unilateral right to terminate its obligations under the Withdrawal Agreement, but merely appeal to arbitration in the event of suspected foul play. Nevertheless, the mechanism for unilateral suspension is a significant concession in our view which may be sufficient to win over enough MPs in the UK’s Parliament. Key to any success will be the legal opinion expected later today of UK attorney general Geoffrey Cox.

ECB: Buy the rumour, sell the news

Markets had run ahead of ECB’s policymaking; valuations suggest near-term rally complete

Despite the ECB’s policy action yesterday, which pushed out the date of the first interest rate increase and confirmed a substantial package of targeted bank financing intended to ease credit conditions for the corporate sector, the market reaction was largely negative. Yet a key part of our bullish call in January was that equity valuations had retreated to levels which were close to long-term averages, a relatively unusual occurrence in this economic cycle. Since then, equity valuations have rebounded sharply as markets have risen while 2019 consensus profits estimates have fallen. This was largely in anticipation of easier monetary policy in our view. We now expect markets to trade only sideways in the absence of a near-term catalyst, while awaiting evidence of a turn in the economy during Q2/Q3. In respect of a US/China trade deal, the apparent cancellation of the Xi/Trump summit due in late March is however unhelpful for sentiment.