Aerospace, Bonds, Brexit, Civil aero, Defence, Earnings, Economy, Equities, GDP, Global Equities, Post-Brexit, UK, UK Government, Valuation
Can aerospace & defence weather Brexit
Impact of lower GDP growth on the aerospace & defence industry
I am a firm believer that GDP growth is the most important driver behind the health of the aerospace & defence sector. A strong economy increases people’s propensity to travel, and defence budgets are set as a percentage of GDP. I acknowledge that the two sides of the sector are both affected by a number of other factors (the oil price, new technologies, geopolitical tensions, etc) and both industries are global. However, the Treasury’s projection that in two years’ time UK GDP will be 3.6% lower than if we had remained in the EU forces me to pause for thought as to the possible impact of Brexit on the sector over the long term.
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