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Elaine Reynolds
31 January 2019

Exploration Watch: 2019 exploration wells

Worldwide exploration continued to be dominated by ExxonMobil’s ongoing success offshore Guyana, with five discovery wells and the opening up of two new plays. In 2019, this activity will continue, but will be joined by two separate efforts led by Tullow Oil and Repsol that will look to extend this success to the inboard Orinduik and Kanuku blocks. In Latin America attention will also be focused on Mexico, as drilling extends into deeper waters alongside further exploration of the shallower Sureste Basin. In the North Sea, potential high impact wells in the Barents Sea and West of Shetland were deferred into 2019 and activity looks set to increase in these areas this year. Onshore, we look at high impact wells in the Nanushuk trend of Alaska’s North Slope and the frontier region of Western Mongolia. Click here for full report

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Elaine Reynolds
16 January 2019

Record APA awards in Norway

Norway has awarded 83 new production licenses under the 2018 Norwegian APA round which covers the most explored areas of the Norwegian shelf. This is the largest number ever awarded in a single APA round. The licences were mainly distributed across the North Sea with 37 awards, and the Norwegian Sea with 32 awards. The award of 14 licences in the Barents Sea reflects the frontier nature of the region, however this figure continues to grow, with only three licences awarded here in APA 2016 and eight awarded in 2017.(Link to awards maps)

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Elaine Reynolds
20 November 2018

Sound Energy well result highlights reservoir variability in Morocco

Sound Energy’s TE-9 well in the Tendrara Basin in Morocco has encountered poor reservoir in the primary Triassic TAGI target and the well will be plugged and abandoned. The well was the first in a three well exploration campaign and was testing the A1 structure around 25km to the north west of the company’s Tendrara production concession, with a mid-case pre-drill estimate 0.7TCF gas in place. Since 2016, Sound has successfully drilled and tested the TE-6 and TE-7 wells in the core Tendrara area around the TE-5 discovery well, however results from the larger step out wells such as 2017’s TE-8 (which encountered tight TAGI sands to the west)  and exploration further afield in TE-9 have not been as encouraging.

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Elaine Reynolds
13 November 2018

Samo-1 hits water for FAR in Gambia

The first well to be drilled offshore The Gambia since 1979 has encountered water bearing sands in a disappointing result for operator FAR Limited. Samo-1 was targeting best estimate recoverable resources of 825mmbbls oil in shelf edge Albian sandstones located around 5km south of the Cairn operated SNE field in Senegal, in which FAR is also a partner. The well was an extension of and on trend with similar sands in SNE that had been successfully drilled and proven in nine exploration and appraisal wells. Samo-1 was located in Block A2, immediately adjacent to SNE and this proximity was reflected in the well being assigned a COS of 50%.

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Sanjeev Bahl
5 November 2018

UK shale gas - Cuadrilla reports gas to surface

In our view, first shale gas to surface at Preston New Road is encouraging and supports results from the 2011, Preese-Hall 1 vertical well were gas was successfully flowed to surface from the Bowland shale. To date, Cuadrilla has only hydraulically fractured a small section of shale surrounding the first of two horizontal wells; gas flows on completion of the planned multi-frac are expected in early 2019 and should be significantly higher than those from current flow-back.

As discussed in Edison’s probabilistic analysis of UK shale potential, we believe that based on current knowledge, and assuming a supportive political/regulatory framework, there is a 67% chance of commercial success for UK shale (NPV15>0). We note that forward summer and winter average gas prices have risen materially since publication of our UK shale valuation, driven by declining domestic production, absence of long-term storage, rising oil prices and higher gas transportation costs.

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Sanjeev Bahl
11 October 2018

Diversified Gas & Oil acquisition of Core Appalachia Holding Co

Diversified Gas and Oil has announced the acquisition of Core Appalachia Holding Co (Core) for a consideration of $183m comprised of $130m in cash (funded through the assumption of $93m of Core debt and $40m DGO debt drawdown) and 35m new shares issued at £1.15. The deal is expected to be immediately accretive to cash flow and earnings with synergies with DGOs existing Appalachian asset base. Net working interest production is expected to increase 19% to 71,000boed and 1P reserves +25% to 493mmboe. DGO expects immediate to near term synergies of $5-10m pa. The deal is priced at 72% of management estimated PV10 of $255m and is in line with the EQT acquisition on this metric. Assuming we were to include the Core assets at PV10, post equity dilution, the deal would add c.8.4p/share to our last published valuation of 138.1p/share excluding synergies. We note that DGOs share price has disconnected from recent spot price strength in Henry Hub in recent weeks and on our last published forecasts the stock yields c 7.4%.

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