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Greggs (GRG)

Business description

With nearly 1,900 shops, nine manufacturing centres and 22,000 employees, Greggs is a leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It utilises vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices.

Stock data

Market cap.£1068.2m
Last close1,056.00p
High / Low (52 weeks)1399.0p / 942.0p
Stock market listingLN
Forecast net cash (£m)41.1
Forecast gearing ratio (%)N/A
SectorFood & Drink

Price performance

Relative *11.43.1(12.2)

* % Relative to local index

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Company news

Investment summary

Greggs’ interim results, against a backdrop of extreme weather conditions, reinforce progress with the strategic transformation of the brand into a leading ‘food-on-the-go’ format. Innovative new product ranges, a reduced dependence on high street footfall and a major overhaul of the supply chain are creating a solid platform for the next stage of the journey. We forecast strong cash generation and a return to earnings growth in 2019.

Last updated on 03/08/2018

Y/E Dec Revenue (£m) EBITDA (£m) PBT (£m) EPS (p) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2016A 894.2 125.9 80.3 62.0 17.0 7.9
2017A 960.0 135.7 81.8 64.5 16.4 7.9
2018E 1012.4 136.7 81.3 64.0 16.5 8.0
2019E 1084.2 145.6 83.4 65.6 16.1 7.3

Last updated on 03/08/2018

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Executive interview – Greggs

Industry outlook

Greggs enjoys an expanding market. The Project Café2017UK report (Allegra World Coffee portal) valued the UK coffee shop market in 2016 at £8.9bn, +12% y-o-y. Branded outlets (including Greggs) accounted for £3.7bn. Allegra estimates it could reach £16bn by 2025. The squeezed consumer is a potential concern, although arguably Greggs is well placed for the value switch after widespread refurbishments extended customer options as it moves to widen its market.

Last updated on 27/07/2018

Key management

Roger Whiteside, CEO
Richard Hutton, FD

Company address

Fernwood House
Clayton Road
Newcastle Upon Tyne
Newcastle Upon Tyne
United Kingdom
+44 (0)191 281 7721
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