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Greggs (GRG)

Business description

With over 1,900 shops, eight manufacturing and distribution centres and 22,000 employees, Greggs is the leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It utilises vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices.

Stock data

Market cap.£1343.4m
Last close1,328.00p
High / Low (52 weeks)1399.0p / 942.0p
Stock market listingLN
Forecast net cash (£m)46.8
Forecast gearing ratio (%)N/A
SectorFood & Drink

Price performance

Relative *

* % Relative to local index

Other companies in sector Show

Company news

Greggs shares go stale as outlook predicts flat profits for 2018

Wed, 09 May 2018 07:53:53 GMT

Beer and pasties to provide sustenance, with updates due from Wetherspoons and ...

Tue, 08 May 2018 11:37:30 GMT

New ranges and breakfast demand boost sales at Greggs

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 06:37:53 GMT

Broker Forecast - Berenberg issues a broker note on Greggs PLC

Fri, 11 May 2018 09:33:02 GMT

Greggs sees full-year adjusted profit meet expectations, but like-for-like ...

Tue, 27 Feb 2018 08:23:10 GMT

Investment summary

Bucking the wider sector trend, Greggs has delivered impressive stronger than anticipated sales growth in October and November. Over the period, leading on from a solid third quarter, total sales increased by 9.0% (Q318: 7.3%) and like-for-like sales increased by 4.5% (Q318: 3.2%). Operating costs have been well controlled and the company remains on track to open c 100 net new stores this year. We upgrade our FY18e PBT by 6.4% and by 10.8% in FY19e. Our valuation increases to 1,516p.

Last updated on 29/11/2018

Y/E Dec Revenue (£m) EBITDA (£m) PBT (£m) EPS (p) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2016A 894.2 125.9 80.3 62.0 21.4 10.0
2017A 960.0 135.7 81.8 64.5 20.6 9.9
2018E 1020.0 141.9 86.5 68.1 19.5 9.6
2019E 1097.4 154.6 92.4 72.6 18.3 8.6

Last updated on 28/11/2018

Latest video

Executive interview – Greggs

Industry outlook

Greggs enjoys an expanding market. The Project Café2017UK report (Allegra World Coffee portal) valued the UK coffee shop market in 2016 at £8.9bn, +12% y-o-y, with branded outlets accounting for £3.7bn. Allegra estimates it could reach £16bn by 2025. In August Costa was sold to Coca-Cola for 16.4x EBITDA. The squeezed consumer is a potential concern, although arguably Greggs is well placed for the value switch after widespread refurbishments and extended customer options as it moves to widen its market.

Last updated on 29/11/2018

Key management

Roger Whiteside, CEO
Richard Hutton, FD

Company address

Fernwood House
Clayton Road
Newcastle Upon Tyne
Newcastle Upon Tyne
United Kingdom
+44 (0)191 281 7721
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