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Greggs (GRG)

Business description

With nearly 1,900 shops, nine manufacturing centres and 22,000 employees, Greggs is a leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It utilises vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices.

Stock data

Market cap.£1030.8m
Last close1,019.00p
High / Low (52 weeks)1399.0p / 1018.0p
Stock market listingLN
Forecast net cash (£m)35.7
Forecast gearing ratio (%)N/A
TeamConsumer
SectorFood & Drink

Price performance

%1m3m12m
Actual(0.1)(14.9)(5.6)
Relative *0.7(20.2)(9)

* % Relative to local index

Other companies in sector Show

Company news

Y/E Dec Revenue (£m) EBITDA (£m) PBT (£m) EPS (p) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2016A 894.2 125.9 80.3 62.0 16.4 7.6
2017A 960.0 135.7 81.8 64.5 15.8 7.6
2018E 1012.2 138.3 81.9 63.7 16.0 7.4
2019E 1083.6 146.1 83.8 65.9 15.5 7.0

Last updated on 10/05/2018

Latest research

Growth moderates, but strategy on plan

Update | Food & Drink | 10/05/2018

Value discovery

Outlook | Food & Drink | 14/03/2018

Positive outlook

Update | Food & Drink | 16/01/2018

A strengthening picture

Update | Food & Drink | 04/10/2017

In balance

Update | Food & Drink | 09/08/2017

Promising performance, strengthened proposition

Update | Food & Drink | 22/05/2017

Successful strategy offers further potential

Outlook | Food & Drink | 06/03/2017

Better-than-expected FY16

Flash note | Food & Drink | 17/01/2017

In line with expectations

Update | Food & Drink | 12/10/2016

Healthy H1

Update | Food & Drink | 03/08/2016

On target

Update | Food & Drink | 11/05/2016

Growing again

Initiation | Food & Drink | 25/04/2016

Investment summary

Greggs’ management has been open in recognising that despite the Beast from the East and other extraordinary weather patterns, there is an underlying softening of demand. We have reduced forecasts, but see earnings growth continuing from a combination of like-for-like sales, shop expansion, and investment in the estate and manufacturing and fulfilment infrastructure. Greggs’ value positioning should place it well in a tight consumer market, and at these levels the valuation is attractive.

Last updated on 10/05/2018

Industry outlook

Greggs enjoys an expanding market. The Project Café2017UK report (Allegra World Coffee portal) valued the UK coffee shop market in 2016 at £8.9bn, +12% y-o-y. Branded outlets (including Greggs) accounted for £3.7bn. Allegra estimates it could reach £16bn by 2025. The squeezed consumer is a potential concern, although arguably Greggs is well placed for the value switch after widespread refurbishments extended customer options as it moves to widen its market.

Last updated on 27/04/2018

Key management

Roger Whiteside, CEO
Richard Hutton, FD

Company address

Fernwood House
Clayton Road
Newcastle Upon Tyne
Newcastle Upon Tyne
NE2 1TL
United Kingdom
+44 (0)191 281 7721
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