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Hellenic Petroleum (ELPE)

Business description

Hellenic Petroleum operates three refineries in Greece with a total capacity of 341kbd, and has sizeable marketing (domestic and international) and petrochemicals divisions.

Stock data

Market cap.€2050.8m
Last close€6.71
High / Low (52 weeks)€8.8 / €6.7
Stock market listingASE
Forecast net debt (€m)1301
Forecast gearing ratio (%)64
TeamResources - Oil & Gas
SectorOil & Gas

Price performance

%1m3m12m
Actual(2.3)(14.2)(13.2)
Relative *5.7(4.5)3.3

* % Relative to local index

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Y/E Dec Revenue (€m) EBITDA (€m) PBT (€m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2016A 6680.0 731.0 361.0 0.82 818.3 2.4
2017A 7995.0 833.0 502.0 1.20 559.2 4.5
2018E 7947.0 789.0 496.0 1.22 550.0 N/A
2019E 7944.0 748.0 459.0 1.13 593.8 4.6

Last updated on 23/07/2018

Latest research

Investment summary

We recently adjusted our forecasts to mark to market for Q118, while reflecting the anticipated positive margin impact of shipping regulatory changes in late 2019 and 2020. Longer term, European refining overcapacity remains a concern with capacity growth exceeding product demand growth – OPEC expects Europe to account for c 51% of projected global refinery closures in the period 2018–2020. ELPE remains well placed to weather the storm, given recent investments enhancing complexity and middle-distillate yield; however, competition from marginal refineries is likely to remain a drag on benchmarks. Our updated blended P/E, EV/EBITDA and DCF valuation stands at €9.0/share, down from €9.3/share.

Last updated on 27/07/2018

Industry outlook

European refining will likely face continued challenges in the coming years as demand falls and refinery systems elsewhere (Asia/US) hold structural advantages. To offset this, changing regulations should put complex, middle distillate-orientated refineries such as ELPE’s in a strong position.

Last updated on 27/07/2018

Key management

Vasilis Tsaitas , Investor Relations Officer
Vasilis Molfetas, IR department
George Grigoriou, Investor Relations Officer

Company address

8A Chimarras str, Marousi
Athens
15125
Greece
+30 210 63 02 000
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