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AJ Lucas offers investors exposure to the most advanced UK shale appraisal programme in the UK. Current activity is focused on a drilling campaign at Preston New Road where the company has approval to drill and test up to four horizontal wells. Prior to appraisal, which is aimed at reducing technical and economic uncertainty, we utilise a probabilistic approach to valuation estimating a 67% chance of commercial success for UK shale (NPV15 >0) with a net P50 risked value of A$0.92/share. At a group level, incorporating AJL’s operating business units and net debt, we derive a P50 (mid-case) valuation of A$0.86/share.

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