Avesco Group — Update 2 September 2016

Avesco Group — Update 2 September 2016

Avesco Group

Fiona Orford-Williams

Written by

Fiona Orford-Williams

Director, TMT

Avesco Group

Olympic gold

Trading update

Media

2 September 2016

Price

258.5p

Market cap

£49m

$1.33:£

Net debt (£m) at 31 March 2016

3.2

Shares in issue

19.1m

Free float

56%

Code

AVS

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

23.1

21.1

17.5

Rel (local)

21.4

12.0

6.5

52-week high/low

258.5p

196.5p

Business description

Avesco is a leading international provider of services to the corporate presentation, entertainment and broadcast markets.

Next events

Preliminary FY16 results

January 2017

Analysts

Fiona Orford-Williams

+44 (0)20 3077 5739

Jane Anscombe

+44 (0)20 3077 5740

Bridie Barrett

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Avesco Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Avesco’s trading update outlines continued strong trading over the summer at Creative Technology in the US and at the Rio Olympics and Paralympics. FY16 results (to end September) will be “comfortably” ahead of previous expectations. Positive momentum continues into FY17, when a good schedule of sporting and commercial events, along with currency benefit, will buoy what would normally have been a weaker, odd-numbered year. With a rising dividend and asset backing, the valuation multiple remains very modest, despite the increase in the share price on this news.

Year
end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

09/14

126.4

5.0

12.4

6.0

20.8

2.3

09/15

133.7

5.7

25.3

7.0

10.2

2.7

09/16e

147.0

7.6

24.6

8.0

10.5

3.1

09/17e

150.0

8.4

27.3

9.0

9.5

3.5

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Trading and currency lift forecasts

Our earlier forecasts had a built-in contingency on profits attributable to Creative Technology (CT) London from Rio, given the degree of negative media attention ahead of the Games. With the main Olympics having been successfully delivered, and with continued good performance of CT’s US commercial operations, our FY16 revenue forecast is raised £2m, adding £1m to EBIT and to PBT. With a heavier US weighting, the tax rate will rise, but our forecast EPS nevertheless increases by 9% to 24.6p. This increase is despite a slower-than-hoped turnaround in the Full Service business (8% of FY16e revenues), which should return to profit in FY17. Growing visibility of events scheduled in FY17 and more advantageous exchange rates give us the confidence to lift our revenue number by £12m to £150m and our EBIT forecast by £1.3m to £9.5m. FY17e EPS increases by 16% to 27.3p, again on a slightly higher tax charge.

Increasing focus and capability

We have made small adjustments to timing on capital investment and net debt, but these are insignificant against the sale of our Fountain Studios’ land and buildings for £16m earlier in the year (see notes in January, June). CT has recently added to its capabilities with a small acquisition of a wireless specialist event service business and with a partnership delivering video adjudication for sporting events.

Valuation: Marked discount

Avesco’s share price has traded in a range of 200-230p since March 2016, before breaking out on this positive news. However, the valuation remains at a clear discount to other media and events stocks. Avesco is currently trading on an EV/EBIT of 6.1x in FY16e and 5.5x in FY17e, compared with 13.7x and 11.2x respectively for peers (EV/EBIT being a more relevant metric given the structurally higher depreciation on hire equipment). This discount persists despite Avesco’s moves to deliver a more consistent trading model and which give a clearer investment story.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£'000s

2013

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

Year end 30 September

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

124,033

126,391

133,674

147,000

150,000

Cost of sales

(80,408)

(80,186)

(83,035)

(91,140)

(93,000)

Gross profit

43,625

46,205

50,639

55,860

57,000

EBITDA

18,943

24,968

26,955

28,000

28,400

Depreciation and software amortisation

(18,432)

(18,715)

(19,598)

(19,000)

(18,900)

Trading profit (before exceptional items)

511

6,253

7,357

9,000

9,500

Amortisation of acquired intangible assets

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptional items

(8,861)

(5,385)

(2,499)

8,700

0

Operating profit

(8,350)

868

4,858

17,700

9,500

Net Interest

(1,529)

(1,298)

(1,650)

(1,400)

(1,100)

Profit before tax (norm)

(1,018)

4,955

5,707

7,600

8,400

Profit before tax (FRS 3)

(9,879)

(430)

3,208

16,300

8,400

Tax

(744)

(2,310)

(854)

(2,900)

(3,230)

Minority interest

0

0

0

0

0

Profit on discontinued operations

45,729

1,192

1,072

0

0

Profit after tax (norm)

(1,762)

2,645

4,853

4,700

5,200

Profit after tax (FRS 3)

35,106

(1,548)

3,426

13,400

5,170

Average number of shares outstanding (m)

25.8

21.4

19.2

19.1

19.1

EPS - normalised fully diluted (p)

(6.8)

12.4

25.3

24.6

27.3

Dividend per share (p)

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Gross margin (%)

35.2

36.6

37.9

38.0

38.0

EBITDA margin (%)

15.3

19.8

20.2

19.0

18.9

Operating margin (before GW and except) (%)

0.4

4.9

5.5

6.1

6.3

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed assets

62,160

62,311

59,201

55,695

54,545

Intangible assets

311

130

209

229

229

Tangible assets

56,346

57,787

54,266

51,116

49,966

Other (mainly deferred income tax assets)

5,503

4,394

4,726

4,350

4,350

Current assets

67,655

33,462

40,741

43,531

43,408

Stocks

829

596

649

749

788

Debtors

23,114

23,801

25,860

31,282

31,920

Cash

43,699

9,065

12,749

11,500

10,700

Other

13

0

1,483

0

0

Current liabilities

(38,607)

(33,259)

(35,592)

(32,199)

(30,254)

Creditors

(30,712)

(25,357)

(27,247)

(27,199)

(27,754)

Short-term borrowings

(7,895)

(7,902)

(8,345)

(5,000)

(2,500)

Long-term liabilities

(18,009)

(30,371)

(29,931)

(18,500)

(14,500)

Long-term borrowings

(13,467)

(22,602)

(21,866)

(12,500)

(11,500)

Other long-term liabilities

(4,542)

(7,769)

(8,065)

(6,000)

(3,000)

Net assets

73,199

32,143

34,419

48,527

53,199

CASH FLOW

Operating cash flow

17,098

16,415

26,292

23,500

25,400

Net interest

(1,604)

(1,224)

(1,634)

(1,400)

(1,100)

Tax

(1,157)

(1,268)

(2,942)

(2,300)

(5,100)

Capex (net)

(15,766)

(19,042)

(15,975)

(20,000)

(15,000)

Net acqs / Disney payout FY13/ Fountain disposal + non-trading items FY16

49,818

0

634

13,000

0

Share buy-back/redemption

0

(21,861)

0

0

0

Dividends

(1,032)

(17,468)

(1,474)

(1,300)

(1,500)

Net cash flow

47,357

(44,448)

4,901

11,500

2,700

Opening net debt/(cash)

24,765

(22,337)

21,439

17,462

6,000

Other (inc currency)

(255)

672

(924)

(38)

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

(22,337)

21,439

17,462

6,000

3,300

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

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Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Avesco Group and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Avesco Group and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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