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While uncertainty about a head coach and Champions League qualification has been satisfactorily resolved, there is no denying the challenge for Borussia Dortmund (BVB) in making a fresh start after its most difficult season since near-bankruptcy. Without pre-empting new coach Favre, who takes over in July, radical change in the squad make-up and size has already been indicated by management. Likely enhanced transfer activity should therefore support our FY19 EBITDA forecast despite lower pre-transfer income expectations (still up 11%) on greater clarity of Champions League payout. However, for the current year no such transfer offset is assumed (admittedly cautious), hence our 13% EBITDA downgrade.

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