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Centrale del Latte d’Italia — Update 18 November 2016

Centrale del Latte d’Italia — Update 18 November 2016

Centrale del Latte d’Italia

Analyst avatar placeholder

Written by

Centrale del Latte d'Italia

Integration proceeding to plan

Q316 results

Food & beverages

18 November 2016

Price

€2.78

Market cap

€39m

Net debt (€m) at 30 June 2016

21.7

Shares in issue

14.0m

Free float

30%

Code

CLI

Primary exchange

STAR (Borsa Italiana)

Secondary exchange

NA

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

0.4

(1.7)

(16.3)

Rel (local)

1.0

(1.6)

10.8

52-week high/low

€4.00

€2.57

Business description

Centrale del Latte d’Italia produces and distributes fresh and long-life milk (UHT and ESL), and dairy products such as cream, yoghurt and cheese. It has a leading position in milk in the Piedmont region of northern Italy and it has expanded to the Veneto, Liguria and Tuscany regions.

Next events

FY16 results

March 2017

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Paul Hickman

+44 (0)20 3681 2501

Centrale del Latte d'Italia is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

The domestic market remains challenging and beset by deflation, and Centrale del Latte d’Italia’s (CLI’s) flat nine-month revenues led to lower profitability as a result of increased brand support costs. The merger between Centrale del Latte di Torino (CLT) and Centrale del Latte di Firenze, Pistoia e Livorno (CLF) completed as expected on 30 September 2016. The new entity has been formed and is now the third largest dairy/cheese player in Italy. We maintain our forecasts and valuation.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/15

98.3

0.46

0.30

6.00

N/A

2.2

12/16e

118.1

1.03

6.10

6.00

45.6

2.2

12/17e

183.0

3.01

13.97

6.00

19.9

2.2

12/18e

183.0

3.55

16.46

6.00

16.9

2.2

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Flat 9M16 revenues lead to lower profitability

Total 9M16 revenue was broadly flat on the previous year, but this was mainly driven by lower pricing in bulk milk and cream. Net of this, sales were up 0.6%, which demonstrates that the group’s brands are growing. That said, profitability was lower as there were increased costs associated with brand support and sales functions. In addition, there were increased maintenance costs and costs associated with the merger with CLF.

CLF merger completed on schedule

CLT has been acquisitive over the past 20 years, slowly increasing its geographic reach beyond the Turin area and throughout three regions in Northern Italy. The acquisition of CLF is its largest yet and has added Tuscany as a new region. In addition, the Mukki brand (owned by CLF) is an attractive proposition and will be rolled out across CLT’s existing portfolio, and potentially beyond to international markets to which CLI has started exporting. The risk is that the merger integration becomes a distraction for management, although CLI has significant experience in this regard, having been so acquisitive over the years.

Valuation: Fair value remains €2.83 per share

Our DCF model points to a fair value of €2.83 per share (unchanged) for the new entity, implying 2% upside from the current share price. We calculate that CLI now trades at 19.9x FY17e P/E and 8.8x EV/EBITDA, with a 2.2% dividend yield. This is a premium of 9% on P/E and a discount of 6% on EV/EBITDA to the average of our peer group of dairy processors. We estimate that the CLF merger is significantly earnings enhancing (c 80% accretion in the first full year). Our forecasts remain unchanged as they already took account of the merger completing on 30 September.

9M16 results review

Total 9M16 revenue of €71.8m was broadly flat versus 9M15 (€71.7m). Like in H116, sales of bulk milk and cream were affected by lower prevailing spot prices (and lower volumes), hence the remainder of the business witnessed sales up 0.6% in 9M16. Fresh milk and extended shelf life (ESL) sales were up 0.3%, which is encouraging, while UHT milk sales were down 1.2% due to aggressive promotional activity by the competition, in which CLI chose not to participate.

While the market continues to suffer from deflation, CLT’s sales growth adjusted for bulk milk and cream demonstrates the strength of its products and brands. EBITDA of €2.0m in 9M16 compares with €4.1m in 9M15. Profitability suffered due to a number of factors, including:

■

Increased (one-off) costs associated with expanding and supporting CLT’s brands in new areas that are adjacent to its existing geographies of strength. This has involved a ramp-up in marketing costs and in sales and distribution costs. These will be absorbed through operating leverage once the business has expanded, but obviously remained relatively high in the ramp-up phase.

■

Increased administration costs associated with the CLF merger.

■

Increased costs of brand support in general.

■

One-off maintenance costs to improve efficiencies.

Financials

We leave our forecasts unchanged. For the standalone CLT business, we forecast 0.3% revenue CAGR, translating into 5.6% EBITDA CAGR and 21.2% net profit CAGR in 2015-18e. For CLF we have assumed very little growth between 2014 (the last available standalone accounts) and 2016, which is consistent with the trend in previous years. We have assumed sales of €84m for the CLF business in both 2016 and 2017, and EBITDA of €5.6m, in line with the reported 2014 figures (on an IFRS basis).

We forecast EBIT margin progression for the overall entity as CLF’s business had EBIT margins of 3.4% in 2014 (vs CLT’s 2.7%), with margin then settling at our 3% terminal EBIT margin assumption (see our DCF valuation section below).

Valuation

CLT’s share price has fallen 3.8% over the last three months vs the FTSE MIB, which has been flat (+0.1%). It has underperformed relative to the FTSE MIB on a three- and six-month basis, but it has outperformed on a 12-month basis. On 2017 estimates, CLI trades at 19.9x P/E and 8.8x EV/EBITDA, with a 2.2% dividend yield. This is a premium of 9% on P/E and a discount of 6% on EV/EBITDA to the average of our peer group of dairy processors (although we note the peer group companies are much larger than CLI).

Exhibit 1: Benchmark valuation of CLI relative to peers

Market cap
(m)

P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

Dividend yield (%)

2016e

2017e

2016e

2017e

2016e

2017e

Valsoia

€ 177.1

19.6

18.3

10.4

9.5

1.5%

1.6%

Parmalat

€ 4,567.3

30.0

24.6

9.4

8.3

0.8%

0.8%

Dairy Crest

£852.7

16.7

15.0

11.9

10.8

3.8%

4.0%

Dean Foods

$1,693.2

11.6

11.8

5.3

5.3

1.9%

2.0%

Saputo

$17,755.0

23.8

21.3

14.2

12.8

1.3%

1.4%

Peer group average

20.4

18.2

10.3

9.3

1.9%

2.0%

CLI

€ 38.8

45.4

19.8

14.9

8.8

2.2%

2.2%

Premium/(discount) to peer group

123.2%

8.9%

45.2%

-5.6%

15.9%

9.5%

Source: Edison Investment Research estimates and Bloomberg consensus. Note: Prices at 14 November 2016.

We use DCF analysis to value the shares and calculate a fair value of €2.83 (unchanged), or 2% upside from the current level. We have assumed no cost synergies from the recent merger, which is in line with company guidance. For the sake of prudence, we have assumed no revenue synergies and have based our CLF forecasts on the information that is currently available.

Our DCF is based on our assumptions of 1.5% terminal growth rate and 3% terminal EBIT margin. Our WACC of 5.8% is based on an equity risk premium of 4.5%, a borrowing spread of 5% and beta of 0.9. Below, we show a sensitivity analysis to these assumptions and note that the current share price is discounting a terminal EBIT margin of 2.9% (which compares to CLT’s reported EBIT margin of 2.7% in 2014 and 1.6% in 2015) with a terminal growth rate of c 1.5%.

Exhibit 2: DCF sensitivity (€/share) to terminal growth rate and EBIT margin

Terminal EBIT margin

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

Terminal growth

0.00%

0.84

1.32

1.79

2.27

2.75

3.23

0.50%

1.02

1.55

2.08

2.60

3.13

3.65

1.00%

1.25

1.83

2.41

3.00

3.58

4.16

1.50%

1.52

2.18

2.83

3.48

4.14

4.79

2.00%

1.87

2.61

3.36

4.10

4.84

5.58

2.50%

2.32

3.18

4.04

4.90

5.75

6.61

3.00%

2.93

3.95

4.96

5.97

6.99

8.00

3.50%

3.80

5.04

6.27

7.51

8.74

9.98

4.00%

5.14

6.72

8.30

9.88

11.45

13.03

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

€'k

2013

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

2018e

31-December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

99,967

102,558

98,319

118,101

183,032

183,032

Cost of Sales

(80,923)

(82,415)

(78,796)

(94,177)

(145,223)

(145,040)

Gross Profit

19,044

20,143

19,523

23,924

37,810

37,993

EBITDA

 

 

4,911

5,845

4,851

6,445

10,904

11,270

Normalised operating profit

 

 

1,379

2,752

1,554

1,908

4,764

5,245

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

(250)

(134)

145

0

0

0

Share-based payments

0

0

0

0

0

0

Reported operating profit

1,129

2,618

1,699

1,908

4,764

5,245

Net Interest

(675)

(811)

(678)

(876)

(1,755)

(1,700)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

(4)

(4)

(418)

0

0

0

Exceptionals

1,646

0

0

0

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

2,347

1,937

458

1,032

3,008

3,545

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

2,097

1,803

603

1,032

3,008

3,545

Reported tax

(827)

(1,012)

(87)

(361)

(1,053)

(1,241)

Profit After Tax (norm)

2,042

809

30

671

1,955

2,305

Profit After Tax (reported)

1,270

791

517

671

1,955

2,305

Minority interests

0

0

0

0

0

0

Discontinued operations

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net income (normalised)

2,042

809

30

671

1,955

2,305

Net income (reported)

1,270

791

517

671

1,955

2,305

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

10

10

10

11

14

14

EPS - basic normalised (€)

 

 

0.20

0.08

0.00

0.06

0.14

0.16

EPS - diluted normalised (€)

 

 

0.20

0.08

0.00

0.06

0.14

0.16

EPS - basic reported (€)

 

 

0.13

0.08

0.05

0.06

0.14

0.16

Dividend (€)

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

Revenue growth (%)

#DIV/0!

2.6

(-4.1)

20.1

55.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

19.0

19.6

19.9

20.3

20.7

20.8

EBITDA Margin (%)

4.9

5.7

4.9

5.5

6.0

6.2

Normalised Operating Margin

1.4

2.7

1.6

1.6

2.6

2.9

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

65,064

64,185

64,540

129,673

129,207

129,039

Intangible Assets

11,777

11,706

11,539

18,371

18,204

18,036

Tangible Assets

52,652

51,671

52,010

106,010

105,711

105,711

Investments & other

634

808

992

5,292

5,292

5,292

Current Assets

 

 

35,647

36,689

41,122

60,442

59,391

60,967

Stocks

3,473

3,438

3,541

7,932

6,525

6,517

Debtors

16,210

15,720

14,370

31,523

27,157

27,157

Cash & cash equivalents

7,822

10,051

12,192

6,969

11,690

13,274

Other

8,141

7,481

11,019

14,019

14,019

14,019

Current Liabilities

 

 

(34,211)

(33,232)

(35,004)

(65,737)

(67,445)

(67,388)

Creditors

(23,402)

(23,744)

(24,247)

(42,980)

(44,687)

(44,631)

Tax and social security

(333)

(468)

(357)

(357)

(357)

(357)

Short term borrowings

(10,475)

(9,021)

(10,401)

(22,401)

(22,401)

(22,401)

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(25,776)

(27,178)

(29,847)

(67,297)

(62,957)

(62,957)

Long term borrowings

(17,297)

(18,219)

(22,446)

(39,446)

(39,446)

(39,446)

Other long term liabilities

(8,479)

(8,960)

(7,402)

(27,851)

(23,511)

(23,511)

Net Assets

 

 

40,723

40,464

40,810

57,081

58,196

59,661

Minority interests

0

0

0

0

0

0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

40,723

40,464

40,810

57,081

58,196

59,661

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

4,911

5,845

4,851

6,445

10,904

11,270

Working capital

1,715

1,811

(1,942)

(3,959)

4,140

(48)

Exceptional & other

31

(129)

(1,262)

0

0

0

Tax

(827)

(1,012)

(87)

(361)

(1,053)

(1,241)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

5,829

6,515

1,560

2,125

13,991

9,981

Capex

(781)

(2,107)

(3,914)

(4,370)

(5,674)

(5,857)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net interest

(675)

(811)

(678)

(876)

(1,755)

(1,700)

Equity financing

0

0

0

0

0

0

Dividends

(200)

(600)

(600)

(600)

(840)

(840)

Other

(5,923)

2,293

5,031

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(1,748)

5,291

1,399

(3,721)

5,721

1,584

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

25,676

19,950

17,189

20,654

54,878

50,157

FX

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other non-cash movements

7,474

(2,529)

(4,865)

(30,503)

(1,000)

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

19,950

17,189

20,654

54,878

50,157

48,573

Source: Edison Investment Research, Centrale del Latte d'Italia accounts

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Centrale del Latte d'Italia and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. 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Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Centrale del Latte d'Italia and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. 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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Orexigen Therapeutics — Update 18 November 2016

Orexigen Therapeutics

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