China Water Affairs Group Limited — Update 13 December 2016

Industrials

China Water Affairs Group

Continuing growth

H117 results

Utilities

13 December 2016

Price	HK$4.72
Market cap	HK$7,087m
HK$7.76/US$
Net debt (HK$) at 30 September 2016		6,016

Shares in issue	1,501.4m
Free float	46.8%
Code	855

Primary exchange	HK
Secondary exchange	N/A

Share price performance

%	1m	3m	12m
Abs	(13.7)	(0.4)	24.9
Rel (local)	(13.3)	3.4	19.5

52-week high/low

HK$5.98

HK$3.19

Business description

China Water Affairs Group owns and operates regulated water supply assets across 40 cities in mainland China, serving eight million customers in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors.

Next events

FY17 results

June 2017

Analysts

Jamie Aitkenhead	+44 (0)20 3077 5700
Roger Johnston	+44 (0)20 3077 5722

industrials@edisongroup.com

Edison profile page

China Water Affairs Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

China Water Affairs Group’s (CWA’s) reported 59% half-on-half (h-o-h) increase in revenue and 62% operating profit improvement were flattered by HK$1,336m non-cash revenues and a HK$248m non-cash operating profit contribution from a property revaluation. Excluding non-cash effects, h-o-h operating profit increased by 30%. City Water Supply (CWS), CWA’s most significant business unit, grew revenue at an underlying rate of 25% h-o-h (70% reported; see Exhibit 3) and operating profit surprised on the upside. We increase our estimates to take account of the improved operating performance and work through various non-cash items in FY17e. Our 1.3% increase in FY18e EBITDA, together with improved cash generation, has the effect of increasing our fair value per share by 9.6% to HK$7.12 from HK$6.52.

Year end	Revenue (HK$m)	PBT* (HK$m)	EPS* (c)	DPS (c)	P/E (x)	Yield (%)
03/15	2,859	886	16.6	7.0	28.4	1.5
03/16	4,033	1,337	38.5	8.0	12.3	1.7
03/17e	6,255	2,031	55.5	10.0	8.5	2.1
03/18e	7,535	2,168	58.8	12.5	8.0	2.6

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Earnings beat driven by City Water Supply

CWA delivered a strong set of H117 numbers showing an exceptionally robust performance in its CWS business. After stripping out a HK$248m fair value gain in the Property division, CWA’s 30% h-o-h EBIT increase was predominantly driven by the CWS unit.

Forecasts increased, cash flow and leverage better

We increase our FY18e group EBITDA forecast by 1.3%, which is driven by a superior FY18e CWS segment EBIT (HK$2,073m vs HK$2,004m previously). Superficially, we increase FY17e forecasts significantly (16.2% increase in EBITDA), although this is mainly due to the Property fair value adjustment. Once this is stripped out, the underlying EBITDA increase is 4.4%. CWA did not release a figure for capex over the first half but we reduce our FY17e forecast substantially from HK$1,901m to HK$1,082m to reflect the absence of M&A in the first half. Consequently our FY17e net debt to EBITDA improves from 2.6x to 2.0x.

Valuation: SOTP increased by 9.6%

Our EV/EBITDA multiple-based, sum-of-the-parts valuation model implies a fair value per share of HK$7.12, which is a 9.6% increase on our previous fair value estimate. This is partly driven by the 2.4% increase in our CWS EBIT forecast for FY18, but mostly (HK$0.52 out of HK$0.60) due to our reduction in M&A capex converting into a lower net debt estimate, which expands the equity component of our forecast enterprise value. Peer-based multiples concur with the thesis that CWA trades at a significant discount to fair value as the company is 34% undervalued in comparison to its peers on a one-year forward EV/EBITDA.

Interims: City Water Supply drives growth

Accounting for 81.5% of FY16 group operating profit, CWS benefits from increasing private penetration in tap water provision in China and has consistently grown both revenue and profit by double-digit percentages in recent years. Even within the context of such stellar returns, CWS’s H117 segment operating profit surprised on the upside with tariff increases cited by management as a major driver. The other notable moving part was the non-cash fair value gain on property in the property division.

Exhibit 1: CWA segment profit earnings bridge

Source: Edison Investment Research

The 62% h-o-h increase in reported group operating profit converts to a 43% increase in PBT after the effects of a higher interest charge and a negative contribution from associates. However, once the effect of a smaller deduction for minority interests (36% versus 58%) is taken into account, the h-o-h increase in profits for the period attributable to owners of the company more than doubles to HK$429m.

Exhibit 2: H117 vs H116

HK$m	H116	H117	% h-o-h
City Water Supply Operation and Construction	591	917	55%
Sewage Treatment Operation and Construction	78	80	2%
Property Development and Investment	62	248	303%
Concrete Related Products and Services	21	5	-76%
All other segments	14	(9)	-162%
Segment profit	766	1,241	62%
Reconciliation of segment profit to profit from operation	(58)	(58)	0%
Profit from operation	708	1,183	67%
Finance costs	(93)	(136)
Share of results of associates	57	(82)
Profit before tax	673	965	43%
Income tax expense	(181)	(293)
Profit for the period	492	672	36%
Attributable to owners of the company	205	429	109%
Non-controlling interests	287	243	-15%
EPS (HK cents)	19.20	28.43	48%
Diluted EPS (HK cents)	19.11	28.19	47%
DPS (HK cents)	3.00	4.00	33%

Source: China Water Affairs Group accounts, Edison Investment Research

Divisional analysis: All about CWS but watch for non-cash

An h-o-h comparison of CWA’s results has been made more difficult by the adoption of new accounting standards. Below, we explain the key moving parts in analysing CWA’s H117 numbers and find that, while strong, CWA’s underlying results were not as extraordinary as the headlines suggest.

■

City Water Supply operation and construction: After adjusting for currency and a significant increase in non-cash IFRIC 12 revenues, the half-on-half increase in CWS revenues was 25% rather than the headline figure of 70% (see Exhibit 3). This figure is roughly in line with our prior year-on-year revenue increase of 28%. Of note is that Water Supply Connection Income lagged with a 6.6% (11.4% before currency effects) h-o-h revenue increase, which is well below our previous 25% estimate. Water Supply Operation Services grew at 12.3% (17.1% before currency effects). The largest change was in the non-cash revenues associated with IFRIC 12 intangibles, which has no cash effect but optically increases revenues and depresses operating margins. IFRIC 12 is standard accounting practice for concessions and involves recognising non-cash revenues over the duration of the concession as well as carrying the value of the contract as an intangible asset. Despite mixed revenue drivers, CWS surprised on the upside with a 55% increase in operating profit to HK$917m (H116 HK$591m). Management attributes this sharp rise to tariff increases in seven cities.

Exhibit 3: City Water Supply revenue analysis

HK$m	H116	H117	H-o-h	Notes
Water Supply operation services	740	831	12.3%
Water Supply connection income	408	435	6.6%
Water Supply Construction Services	358	1,336	272.9%
Unknown	49	43
City Water Supply operation and construction	1,556	2,645	1,089
			70%
Deduct non-cash IFRIC 12 revenue	(358)	(1,336)
Other revenue deductions	0	131		131m for BT projects
Impact of non-cash items	(358)	(1,205)
Underlying cash revenues	1,197	1,440	243
% h-o-h			20%
Currency effect			(75)
% h-o-h			-4.8%
Underlying growth rate			25%

Source: China Water Affairs Group accounts, Edison Investment Research

■

Sewage Treatment operation and construction: Once HK$117.1m of non-cash IFRIC 12 is removed from the half-on-half increase, the underlying cash increase is 2.6%.

■

Property development and investment: While revenue declined in this unit from HK$15.2m to HK$10.4m, the significant increase in reported operating profit was mainly driven by a non-cash upwards revaluation of HK$248m.

Financials and forecasts

We upgrade our CWS divisional operating forecast to take account of the increase in profitability witnessed in H117. At divisional level, the upgrades increase EBIT by 5.2% in FY17e and 3.4% in FY18e. We increase our estimate for the Sewage Treatment business too, but it makes only a minimal difference at group level. Although non-cash in nature, we also work through the fair value increase in the property unit which flatters headline FY17e earnings estimates. Note, underlying EBITDA in FY17e (excluding the non-cash FV adjustment in Property and IFRIC 12) is 4.4% rather than 16.2%.

Exhibit 4: Summary of forecast changes

	EPS* (c)			PBT* (HK$m)			EBITDA (HK$m)
	Old	New	% chg.	Old	New	% chg.	Old	New	% chg.
2017e	45.77	55.50	21.2	1,686.2	2,031.0	20.4	2,279.8	2,649.5	16.2
2018e	56.05	58.83	5.0	2,065.3	2,167.6	5.0	2,759.9	2,796.1	1.3

Source: Edison Investment Research, China Water Affairs Group accounts. Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Not directly captured in our earnings forecast changes is our cut in capital investment to HK$1,082m from HK$1,901m in FY17e and to HK$2,129m from HK$2,265m in FY18e. This is a reflection of the slow first half performance from CWA in terms of M&A. We acknowledge that M&A (privatising small urban water networks) is likely to be lumpy in nature and give CWA the benefit of the doubt with strong H117 capacity expansion and a high increase again in FY18e. In the short term however, the reduction in capex lowers our net debt forecast by 9.8% in FY17e and 12.1% in FY18e. We will be reassured to see further progress on M&A as this is a key driver of CWA’s equity proposition.

Valuation: Fair value nudged up

We increase our sum-of-the-parts fair value per share to HK$7.12 from HK$6.52. The largest driver in our improved equity fair value per share is the decline in our net debt forecast outlined above. This accounts for HK$0.52 of our HK$0.60 improvement, with the rest a mixture of our earnings upgrade and a decline in minorities. Our new fair value per share implies 51% upside to the current share price of HK$4.72.

Exhibit 5: Peer comparison

Company	Share Price (local)	Number of shares (m)	Market Cap (local m)	Div yield	Current P/E	Next P/E	Current EV/ EBITDA	Next EV/ EBITDA	Net debt to +1y EBITDA
China Water Affairs	4.91	1501	7,567	2.0%	8.8x	8.3x	6.1x	6.3x	2.0x
Guangdong Investment Ltd	10.46	6264.9	65,531	3.3%	14.7	13.4	8.2	7.5	-1.1x
Beijing Enterprises Water Group Ltd	5.23	8737.4	45,696	1.8%	14.8	12.0	12.9	10.6	4.5x
Tianjin Capital Environmental Protection Group Co Ltd	4.04	340.0	1,374	1.7%	13.8	13.3	2.8	2.6	1.3x
Average Hong Kong Listed				2.3%	14.4x	12.9x	7.9x	6.9x	1.6x
Beijing Originwater Technology Co Ltd	17.77	3123.4	55,503	0.2%	26.7	19.5	20.4	14.0	-1.7
Chongqing Water Group Co Ltd	7.56	4800.0	36,288	3.4%	24.4	24.8	14.6	15.1	-1.1
Tus-Sound Environmental Resources Co Ltd	32.06	854.3	27,389	0.5%	24.3	20.2	16.5	12.5	2.4
Average Mainland China Listed				1.4%	25.1x	21.5x	17.2x	13.9x	-0.1x
Veolia Environnement SA	15.92	563.4	8,969	4.6%	16.1	13.5	5.5	5.2	2.5
Suez	13.47	564.4	7,600	4.8%	17.5	15.1	5.9	5.6	3.0
Severn Trent PLC	2,163.00	235.7	5,098	3.7%	20.8	20.1	11.8	11.3	5.7
United Utilities Group PLC	893.50	681.9	6,093	4.3%	19.5	19.2	13.1	12.5	6.9
Average Europe				4.4%	18.5x	17.0x	9.0x	8.6x	4.5x
Average Global				2.8%	19.3x	17.1x	11.2x	9.7x	2.2x

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: Bloomberg prices as at 13 December 2016.

CWA trades at a discount to its closest listed peers. It trades on a steep discount to other HK-listed water utilities on one-year forward P/E (8.3x versus 12.9x). On a one-year forward EV/EBITDA, CWA trades at a 34% discount to global water utilities. We continue to believe the market underestimates CWA’s growth trajectory and prices the stock accordingly and, therefore, we have confidence in our fundamental analysis, which implies 51% upside for equity holders.

Exhibit 6: Financial summary

	HK$m	2014	2015	2016	2017e	2018e	2019e	2020e
Year end 31 March		IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS
PROFIT & LOSS
Revenue		2,747	2,859	4,033	6,255	7,535	9,114	10,542
EBITDA		1,075.8	1,299.8	1,820.2	2,649.5	2,796.1	3,425.4	3,972.7
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)		771	1,001	1,479	2,218	2,338	2,899	3,365
Intangible Amortisation		0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Exceptionals		58	136	(30)	0	0	0	0
Other		0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Operating Profit		829	1,137	1,449.1	2,218.1	2,337.7	2,899	3,365
Net Interest		(107)	(117)	(171)	(162)	(185)	(214)	(252)
Profit Before Tax (norm)		729.7	885.6	1,337.4	2,031.0	2,167.6	2,699.8	3,127.8
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)		788	1,021	1,308	2,031	2,168	2,700	3,128
Tax		(230)	(317)	(305)	(508)	(542)	(675)	(782)
Profit After Tax (norm)		500	569	1,033	1,523	1,626	2,025	2,346
Profit After Tax (FRS 3)		558	704	1,003	1,523	1,626	2,025	2,346

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)		1,423.2	1,416.9	1,508.5	1,509.4	1,519.9	1,519.9	1,519.9
EPS - normalised (c)		15.7	16.6	38.5	55.5	58.8	73.3	84.9
EPS - normalised and fully diluted (c)		15.69	16.59	38.54	55.50	58.83	73.27	84.89
EPS - (IFRS) (c)		19.8	26.2	36.6	55.5	58.8	73.3	84.9
Dividend per share (c)		5.0	7.0	8.0	10.0	12.5	15.0	17.5

EBITDA Margin (%)		39.2	45.5	45.1	42.4	37.1	37.6	37.7
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)		28.1	35.0	36.7	35.5	31.0	31.8	31.9

BALANCE SHEET
Fixed Assets		8,578	9,416	11,313	11,989	13,645	15,635	16,688
Intangible Assets		424	415	1,428	1,428	1,428	1,428	1,428
Tangible Assets		5,425	5,995	6,716	7,367	9,038	11,043	12,111
Investments		1,827	2,106	2,242	2,267	2,252	2,237	2,222
Other		902	901	928	928	928	928	928
Current Assets		4,929	5,686	7,507	9,337	10,440	11,469	12,445
Stocks		249	301	289	448	539	652	754
Debtors		578	656	1,084	1,681	2,025	2,449	2,832
Cash		1,590	1,501	2,552	3,092	3,451	3,563	3,710
Other		2,513	3,228	3,583	4,117	4,425	4,805	5,149
Current Liabilities		(3,972)	(5,214)	(5,557)	(5,668)	(5,973)	(6,228)	(6,464)
Creditors		(529)	(486)	(855)	(966)	(1,271)	(1,526)	(1,762)
Short term borrowings		(1,299)	(2,376)	(2,156)	(2,156)	(2,156)	(2,156)	(2,156)
Other		(2,143)	(2,352)	(2,546)	(2,546)	(2,546)	(2,546)	(2,546)
Long Term Liabilities		(3,839)	(3,452)	(5,715)	(6,915)	(8,115)	(9,315)	(9,315)
Long term borrowings		(3,524)	(3,024)	(5,076)	(6,276)	(7,476)	(8,676)	(8,676)
Other long term liabilities		(316)	(428)	(639)	(639)	(639)	(639)	(639)
Net Assets		5,696	6,436	7,548	8,743	9,998	11,562	13,354

CASH FLOW
Operating Cash Flow		554	566	1,494	1,445	2,372	2,779	3,395
Net Interest		(34)	(0)	(72)	(162)	(185)	(214)	(252)
Tax		(106)	(201)	(160)	(508)	(542)	(675)	(782)
Capex		(794)	(781)	(670)	(1,082)	(2,129)	(2,532)	(1,676)
Acquisitions/disposals		0	0	(972)	0	0	0	0
Financing		(343)	(134)	(82)	0	0	0	0
Dividends		(71)	(85)	(106)	(136)	(167)	(205)	(258)
Net Cash Flow		(792)	(635)	(569)	(443)	(651)	(848)	427
Opening net debt/(cash)		2,234	3,377	3,966	4,649	5,092	5,743	6,590
HP finance leases initiated		0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Other		(351)	46	(114)	0	0	0	0
Closing net debt/(cash)		3,377	3,966	4,649	5,092	5,743	6,590	6,163

Source: China Water Affairs Group accounts, Edison Investment Research

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