Claranova — FY18 results confirm positive momentum

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Claranova

FY18 results confirm positive momentum

FY18 results

Software & comp services

8 October 2018

Price	€0.96
Market cap	€376m
US$1.15:€1
Net cash (€m) at end FY18		37.5

Shares in issue	392.3m
Free float	91%
Code	CLA

Primary exchange	Euronext Paris
Secondary exchange	N/A

Share price performance

%	1m	3m	12m
Abs	18.7	11.3	84.9
Rel (local)	17.0	11.3	85.3

52-week high/low

€1.2

€0.4

Business description

Claranova consists of three businesses focused on mobile and internet technologies: PlanetArt (digital photo printing), Avanquest (consumer software) and myDevices (Internet of Things). It is headquartered in Paris with operations in Europe, the US and Canada.

Next events

Q1 revenue update

7 November

Analysts

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

tech@edisongroup.com

Edison profile page

Claranova is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

After a year of strong growth for PlanetArt and myDevices combined with further restructuring for Avanquest, Claranova reported EBITDA profitability on a group basis. With further growth expected in PlanetArt, acquisitions doubling the size of Avanquest, and operator contracts increasing their contribution to myDevices, we maintain our revenue and EBITDA margin growth forecasts for FY19 and FY20. PlanetArt’s launch in India and recent distribution agreements signed by myDevices both have scope to contribute materially to revenues in the longer term.

Year end	Revenue (€m)	EBITDA (€m)	PBT* (€m)	EPS* (€)	DPS (€)	P/E (x)	EV/EBITDA (x)
06/17	130.2	(5.0)	(6.6)	(0.02)	0.0	N/A	N/A
06/18	161.5	3.9	3.1	0.01	0.0	151.9	93.7
06/19e	232.0	16.7	13.4	0.02	0.0	50.1	21.9
06/20e	271.9	28.2	25.0	0.04	0.0	26.2	12.9

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Return to EBITDA profitability in FY18

Claranova had previously reported FY18 revenues of €161.6m (+24% y-o-y, +32% constant currency). FY18 EBITDA of €3.9m was ahead of our €3.4m forecast with all divisions slightly ahead; both PlanetArt and Avanquest reported positive EBITDA and myDevices reduced the loss compared to the prior year. Normalised operating profit of €3.4m was ahead of our €2.9m forecast, as a result of slightly lower costs in each division. After exceptional items totalling €2.4m and share-based payments of €7.1m the company reported operating profit of –€6.1m, compared to -€10.1m a year ago. Net cash of €37.5m at year-end was €5m higher than our forecast.

Maintaining forecasts; upside potential from India

We maintain our recently introduced forecasts for revenue and EBITDA in FY19 and FY20. PlanetArt recently launched the FreePrints service in India. We expect the business to fine-tune the service and customer acquisition process over the next quarter or so, with meaningful adoption of the service unlikely before FY20. However, considering the addressable market of more than 300m smartphone users and a relatively fragmented competitive environment, we see scope for India to add material revenues in the longer term.

Valuation: Upside based on growth outlook

Reflecting the different business models and minority interests for each division, we use a sum-of-the-parts approach to valuation. Based purely on peer group averages per division, we calculate a fair value of €0.95 per share. However, once multiples are adjusted to reflect our views on the growth and profitability of each division, this increases to €1.10 per share. Milestones that could provide upside to our forecasts include: successful adoption of FreePrints in India; growth of the acquired Adaware business; and recently signed distributors reselling the myDevices platform in the US and China.

Review of FY18 results

Claranova reported revenue growth of 24% y-o-y for FY18 (previously reported, along with divisional revenues, in August). EBITDA came in 15% ahead of our forecast, shifting from a loss of €5.0m in FY17 to positive €3.9m in FY18. This is the first time Claranova has reported positive EBITDA since FY12. The reported operating loss of €6.1m was €1.1m better than we had forecast. Share-based payments of €7.1m were €1.1m higher than we had forecast but this was offset by exceptional items that were €1.7m lower than expected and a €0.5m smaller operating loss. Net cash at year-end of €37.5m was €4.9m higher than we had forecast – the majority of the upside was from working capital and minority interest investments.

Exhibit 1: FY18 results highlights

Year end June (€m)	FY18e	FY18a	Diff (%)	% y-o-y

Revenues	161.5	161.5	0.0%	24.0%
EBITDA	3.4	3.9	14.7%	N/A
EBITDA margin (%)	2.1%	2.4%	14.7%	6.3%
Normalised operating profit	2.9	3.4	18.8%	N/A
Normalised operating profit margin (%)	1.8%	2.1%	0.3%	6.6%
Reported operating profit	-7.2	-6.1	-15.8%	-39.7%
Reported operating margin ()	-4.5%	-3.8%	0.7%	4.0%
Normalised PBT	2.1	3.1	51.1%	N/A
Reported PBT	-8.1	-6.4	-20.6%	58.4%
Normalised net income	2.2	2.6	18.4%	N/A
Reported net income	-7.9	-7.9	0.4%	-28.3%
Normalised basic EPS (€)	0.01	0.01	15.6%	N/A
Normalised diluted EPS (€)	0.01	0.01	9.2%	N/A
Reported basic EPS (€)	-0.02	-0.02	-2.0%	-31.6%
Net debt/(cash)	(32.6)	(37.5)	15.1%	134.9%

Source: Claranova, Edison Investment Research

Divisional performance

The divisions reported the following revenues and EBITDA for FY18:

Exhibit 2: Divisional results

Year end June (€m)	FY17a	FY18e	FY18a	Diff (%)
PlanetArt
Revenues	88.9	122.0	122.0	0.0%
y-o-y growth (%)	58%	37.2%	37.2%
EBITDA	(0.3)	6.2	6.4	2.9%
EBITDA margin (%)	-0.3%	5.1%	5.2%

Avanquest
Revenues	38.5	35.8	35.8	0.0%
y-o-y growth (%)	(3%)	(7.0%)	(7.0%)
EBITDA	0.0	0.5	0.7	40.0%
EBITDA margin (%)	0.0%	1.4%	2.0%

myDevices
Revenues	2.8	3.7	3.7	0.0%
y-o-y growth (%)	-24%	32.1%	32.1%
EBITDA	(4.7)	(3.3)	(3.1)	(4.8%)
EBITDA margin (%)	-167.9%	-89.2%	-8.8%

Source: Claranova, Edison Investment Research

On the back of strong revenue growth of 37% for FY18 (47% constant currency), PlanetArt returned to profitability, with positive EBITDA in both halves (H1 €3.7m, H2 €2.7m). This reflects the seasonality of the PlanetArt business (revenues €65.5m in H1 vs €50.1m in H2), as the web-to-print business sees a big uptick in Q2 (CQ4) each year. The customer base for FreePrints now stands at c 10m, up from c 5m at the end of December 2016. The recent introduction of the Photo Tiles product has proved popular and is being rolled out in more countries. With the US and UK business already very successful, PlanetArt is now focusing on ramping up sales in Continental Europe.

Avanquest revenues declined 7% in the year, partly as unprofitable lines were discontinued. As a result of restructuring, the division generated positive EBITDA of €0.5m, up from zero in FY17. We note the new Canadian businesses were integrated from the beginning of FY19, and are likely to double the size of the business while adding significantly to profitability.

myDevices saw revenue growth of 32% y-o-y, as it benefited from the contract with Sprint which contributed revenues of $2m/€1.7m. This helped reduce the EBITDA loss by €1.6m over the period.

PlanetArt launched in India

At the end of September, PlanetArt launched its FreePrints mobile app in India. The offer is for 25 free prints, with postage costing in the range INR45-99 (c €0.53-1.17). This compares to the European offering for 45 photos at a cost of up to €6, reflecting the lower cost of living and disposable income in India. To provide the service, Claranova has contracted with a courier company for all deliveries (at a fixed cost), rather than using India Post which has a poor reputation for delivery performance, as well as using a network of outsourced printing companies to reduce the distance that prints have to be shipped.

Once PlanetArt has established a customer base in the country, it plans to launch additional services such as Photobooks or customised products. With this launch PlanetArt is now active on three continents: Europe (UK, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy and Spain), North America (US) and Asia (India).

Outlook and changes to forecasts

At this point, we are not making any changes to our revenue or EBITDA forecasts (see our initiation note for further details Clear path to profitability). We have increased our forecasts for share-based payments in FY19 and slightly reduced our amortisation forecast in FY20; we have increased our forecast for interest income in both years. Our higher net cash forecasts reflect the higher than expected cash position at the end of FY18.

Exhibit 3: Changes to estimates

€m	FY19e	FY19e	%	%	FY20e	FY20e	%	%
€m	Old	New	change	y-o-y	Old	New	change	y-o-y
Revenues	232.0	232.0	0.0%	43.7%	271.9	271.9	0.0%	17.2%
EBITDA	16.7	16.7	0.0%	328.3%	28.2	28.2	0.0%	69.1%
EBITDA margin (%)	7.2%	7.2%	0.0%	4.8%	10.4%	10.4%	0.0%	3.2%
Normalised operating profit	16.2	16.2	0.1%	376.2%	27.7	27.8	0.4%	71.9%
Normalised operating profit margin (%)	7.0%	7.0%	0.0%	4.9%	10.2%	10.2%	0.0%	3.3%
Reported operating profit	11.6	10.8	-6.9%	N/A	25.7	25.8	0.5%	139.9%
Reported operating margin (%)	5.0%	4.6%	-0.3%	8.4%	9.5%	9.5%	0.0%	4.9%
Normalised PBT	13.0	13.4	2.9%	331.9%	24.6	25.0	1.9%	86.9%
Reported PBT	8.4	8.0	-5.4%	N/A	22.6	23.0	2.1%	189.1%
Normalised net income	7.7	7.9	3.7%	202.1%	14.9	15.2	2.3%	91.7%
Reported net income	4.1	3.8	-8.6%	N/A	13.3	13.7	2.6%	263.7%
Normalised basic EPS (€)	0.02	0.02	3.7%	203.1%	0.04	0.04	2.3%	91.7%
Normalised diluted EPS (€)	0.02	0.02	-2.0%	203.0%	0.04	0.04	-3.3%	91.7%
Reported basic EPS (€)	0.01	0.01	-8.6%	N/A	0.03	0.03	2.6%	263.7%
Net debt/(cash)	(17.4)	(22.1)	26.6%	-41.2%	(39.6)	(45.1)	13.9%	104.4%

Source: Edison Investment Research

Potential sources of upside to our forecasts

We have not factored in material revenues from the Indian launch of FreePrints. As the launch only happened at the end of Q119, we would expect almost no impact on revenues in Q219. The company is currently fine-tuning the service and the methods of customer acquisition, and once it is confident that it can acquire customers at a reasonable cost, we expect it to increase investment in building out the customer base. We therefore do not expect a meaningful contribution to revenues in FY19. The business has a low level of fixed cost and this is already factored into our forecasts.

As the initial offering is for the basic photo printing service, we estimate that gaining one million customers at the minimum delivery charge of INR49/€0.53 would generate revenues of €0.53m (conservatively assuming only one delivery per annum). At a gross margin of 20% (very conservative assumption), this would add gross profit of €0.11m. The missing variable would then be customer acquisition cost which is still a work in progress. According to market researcher NewZoo, the number of smartphone users in India currently stands at 375m versus 252m in the US and 55m in the UK, clearly representing a large opportunity for PlanetArt. We would expect successful adoption of the photo printing service to lead to higher value products being offered and the average basket size and hence gross margin increasing.

We have also not changed our forecasts in relation to the recent distribution deals signed with Ingram Micro and Alibaba. As both companies will need to train their resellers, we are not likely to see evidence of adoption by end customers for some time. However, the scale of these distributors means that they could add materially to myDevices revenues in the longer term.

Valuation

As Claranova is a combination of the three distinct businesses and there are material minority investors in each, we use a sum-of-the-parts approach to fully capture the value of the group. This applies EV/Sales multiples to our FY19 forecasts (see bold multiples) and takes into account the minority interest stakes in each division. As we have not changed our revenue or EBITDA forecasts, our sum-of-the-parts valuation is substantially unchanged, bar from a slightly higher cash position.

Exhibit 4: Sum-of-the-parts valuation

	FY19e	FY20e	EV based on FY19e sales multiple (€m)	MI	Value to shareholders (€m)
EV/Sales multiple (x)	2.2	1.9	521.2	81%	419.7
PlanetArt	2.3	1.9	359.2	7.1%	333.7
Avanquest	2.0	1.9	136.2	49.9%	68.2
myDevices	6.0	2.9	25.8	31.4%	17.7

EV/EBITDA multiple (implied)
PlanetArt	27.6	18.7
Avanquest	21.3	19.5
myDevices	(9.6)	12.6

	€m				Upside/(downside)
Net cash at end FY18e	(37.5)		Equity value (€m)	430.3
Cost of acquisition	26.9		Per share value (€)	1.10	14%
Adjusted net cash	(10.6)

No of shares (m)	392.292

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 5: Financial summary

	€'m	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019e	2020e
30-June		IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS
INCOME STATEMENT
Revenue		93.1	117.4	130.2	161.5	232.0	271.9
EBITDA*		(11.4)	(11.2)	(5.0)	3.9	16.7	28.2
Normalised operating profit		(11.4)	(16.0)	(5.8)	3.4	16.2	27.8
Amortisation of acquired intangibles		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Exceptionals		15.6	(10.0)	0.4	(2.4)	0.0	0.0
Share-based payments		(0.0)	(0.1)	(4.8)	(7.1)	(5.4)	(2.0)
Reported operating profit		4.2	(26.1)	(10.1)	(6.1)	10.8	25.8
Net Interest		1.1	(1.7)	(0.9)	(0.3)	(2.8)	(2.8)
Joint ventures & associates (post tax)		0.0	(0.0)	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Exceptionals		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Profit Before Tax (norm)		(10.3)	(17.7)	(6.6)	3.1	13.4	25.0
Profit Before Tax (reported)		5.3	(27.8)	(11.0)	(6.4)	8.0	23.0
Reported tax		(0.6)	(0.8)	(0.4)	(1.8)	(1.8)	(5.3)
Profit After Tax (norm)		(10.9)	(18.5)	(7.0)	2.4	10.3	19.3
Profit After Tax (reported)		4.7	(28.6)	(11.4)	(8.2)	6.1	17.7
Minority interests		(8.1)	0.0	0.3	0.2	(2.4)	(4.1)
Discontinued operations		(3.2)	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Net income (normalised)		(18.9)	(18.5)	(6.7)	2.6	7.9	15.2
Net income (reported)		(6.5)	(28.6)	(11.0)	(7.9)	3.8	13.7

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)		58	375	375	394	392	392
EPS - basic normalised (€)		(0.33)	(0.05)	(0.02)	0.01	0.02	0.04
EPS - diluted normalised (€)		(0.33)	(0.05)	(0.02)	0.01	0.02	0.04
EPS - basic reported (€)		(0.11)	(0.08)	(0.03)	(0.02)	0.01	0.03
Dividend (€)		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Revenue growth (%)			26.1	10.9	24.0	43.7	17.2
EBITDA Margin (%)		-7.3	-7.9	-3.8	2.4	7.2	10.4
Normalised Operating Margin		-12.3	-13.7	-4.4	2.1	7.0	10.2

BALANCE SHEET
Fixed Assets		15.7	3.0	2.0	1.3	27.8	27.6
Intangible Assets		12.0	1.5	0.9	0.5	27.1	26.9
Tangible Assets		0.6	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1
Investments & other		3.1	1.1	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.6
Current Assets		48.0	25.5	28.1	79.1	86.0	111.5
Stocks		5.9	5.0	3.7	3.7	6.4	7.4
Debtors		4.8	4.7	4.3	4.9	7.6	8.9
Cash & cash equivalents		30.5	11.1	17.1	65.7	67.3	90.3
Other		6.9	4.7	2.9	4.8	4.8	4.8
Current Liabilities		(32.0)	(25.3)	(28.1)	(37.2)	(43.1)	(48.5)
Creditors		(26.9)	(24.5)	(26.6)	(35.4)	(41.3)	(46.7)
Tax and social security		(0.3)	(0.0)	(0.3)	(1.7)	(1.7)	(1.7)
Short term borrowings		(4.8)	(0.7)	(1.1)	(0.1)	(0.1)	(0.1)
Other		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Long Term Liabilities		(2.4)	(1.1)	(0.7)	(29.0)	(46.0)	(46.0)
Long term borrowings		(1.8)	(0.6)	0.0	(28.1)	(45.1)	(45.1)
Other long term liabilities		(0.7)	(0.5)	(0.7)	(0.9)	(0.9)	(0.9)
Net Assets		29.3	2.1	1.3	14.2	24.8	44.5
Minority interests		0.0	0.0	(0.1)	(1.8)	(4.1)	(8.2)
Shareholders' equity		29.3	2.1	1.2	12.5	20.7	36.3

CASH FLOW
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax		(6.8)	(9.2)	(5.0)	3.9	16.7	28.2
Working capital		0.4	2.5	6.8	7.9	0.5	3.0
Exceptional & other		(3.8)	(4.3)	(2.2)	(5.2)	0.0	0.0
Tax		0.3	(0.3)	(0.0)	(1.2)	(1.8)	(5.3)
Net operating cash flow		(9.8)	(11.3)	(0.4)	5.5	15.4	26.0
Capex		(4.4)	(0.9)	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.2)	(0.2)
Acquisitions/disposals		10.8	(0.4)	3.6	14.2	(9.9)	0.0
Net interest		(0.9)	(0.1)	(0.0)	(0.3)	(2.8)	(2.8)
Equity financing		33.2	(5.1)	1.9	2.0	(1.0)	0.0
Dividends		0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Other		0.1	0.1	0.1	(1.1)	0.0	0.0
Net Cash Flow		29.0	(15.7)	5.0	20.1	1.6	23.0
Opening net debt/(cash)		18.0	(23.9)	(9.8)	(16.0)	(37.5)	(22.0)
FX		0.1	(0.1)	(0.6)	0.3	0.0	0.0
Other non-cash movements		12.6	1.7	1.8	1.1	(17.0)	0.0
Closing net debt/(cash)		(23.9)	(9.8)	(16.0)	(37.5)	(22.0)	(45.1)

Source: Claranova, Edison Investment Research. oNte: *Claranova definition.

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Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Claranova (PAR: CLA)

Claranova — FY18 results confirm positive momentum

TMT

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Zalaris — Commencement of strategic review

More on Claranova

Claranova — Guiding to strong H124 EBITDA growth

Claranova — Moving closer to 10% EBITDA margin target

Claranova — Focused on profitability

Claranova — Potential sale of non-core Avanquest activities

Latest from the TMT sector

Zalaris — Commencement of strategic review

discoverIE Group — FY24 EPS in line; good margin progress

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IP Group — Several potential portfolio catalysts on the horizon

Expert System — Making good progress towards growth targets

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