EMIS Group — Update 15 September 2016

TMT

EMIS Group

Good profitability despite market uncertainty

H116 results

Software & comp services

15 September 2016

Price	995p
Valuation	1,060p
Difference	6.5%
Market cap	£630m

Net cash (£m) at end H116		0.7

Shares in issue	63.3m
Free float	74.7%
Code	EMIS

Primary exchange	AIM
Secondary exchange	N/A

Share price performance

%	1m	3m	12m
Abs	(5.3)	2.0	(-3.1)
Rel (local)	(2.3)	(8.8)	(10.7)

52-week high/low

1155p

841.5p

Business description

EMIS is a clinical software supplier to the primary care market in the UK (supplying over 50% of UK GP practices), a software supplier to UK pharmacies, and through several acquisitions also supplies specialist and acute care software.

Next events

Trading update

January 2017

Analysts

Katherine Thompson	+44 (0)20 3077 5730
Dan Ridsdale	+44 (0)20 3077 5729

tech@edisongroup.com

Edison profile page

EMIS’s H116 results showed improved profitability despite limited revenue growth. Recent restructuring has reduced the cost base across the group and should provide a boost to profitability from H2. In our view, the NHS’s digital agenda continues to support long-term growth of the business. Evidence of a turnaround of the Secondary & Specialist Care business is the key to share price upside in the shorter term.

Year end	Revenue (£m)	EBITDA (£m)	EPS* (p)	Net (debt) cash	P/E (x)	Yield (%)
12/14	137.6	47.6	42.8	(11.8)	23.2	1.9
12/15	155.9	52.0	46.0	(9.1)	21.6	2.1
12/16e	162.5	54.1	48.6	(0.1)	20.5	2.4
12/17e	172.2	57.2	51.9	18.8	19.2	2.5

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments.

H116: improved profitability despite flat revenues

In H116 EMIS generated profit growth (adjusted operating profit +4.6% y-o-y, margin +75bp to 22.5%) despite minimal organic revenue growth. Primary & Community Care and Community Pharmacy both performed well, with stable to growing market share across the various business lines and improved profitability year-on-year. Secondary & Specialist Care (SSC) saw sluggish order intake in the acute business and weaker margins in the screening business due to higher than expected contract set-up costs. Restructuring that started in SSC widened to encompass the group and should contribute to profitability in H216.

Small changes to estimates

Management’s profit expectations for FY16 are unchanged. We have revised our forecasts to take account of H116 performance – despite reducing our revenue forecasts by 2.6% in FY16 and FY17, our normalised EPS forecasts only reduce by 0.7% in FY16e and 0.6% in FY17e as the recent restructuring has reduced the cost base. We forecast the company to be close to net cash neutral by year-end, moving to net cash of £18.8m by the end of FY17. In our view, the government’s vision for a paperless NHS supports long-term growth of the business, although the timing of the availability of funds for change projects is difficult to predict.

Valuation: Secondary & Specialist Care key

The stock is trading at a small discount to peers on a P/E basis, supported by a dividend yield of c 2%. In our view, confirmation of a return to revenue growth in SSC combined with improving profitability would support the stock trading at a small premium to peers. Other areas that could provide upside to our earnings forecasts include more integrated healthcare contract wins and beating market share targets in CCMH from winning more of the North New and Refresh contracts. Longer term, the roll-out to the newly signed Lloyds pharmacies should provide a boost to profitability.

Review of H116 results

Exhibit 1: Half-year results

£'000	H115	H116	y-o-y (%)
Revenues	77,806	78,670	1.1
Gross margin (%)	91.1	91.2	0.1
EBITDA	24,813	24,840	0.1
EBITDA margin (%)	31.9	31.6	-0.3
Normalised* EBIT	17,379	17,923	3.1
EMIS adjusted** EBIT	16,917	17,692	4.6
Reported EBIT	13,848	12,141	(12.3)
Normalised EBIT margin (%)	22.3	22.8	0.4
EMIS adjusted EBIT margin (%)	21.7	22.5	0.7
Reported EBIT margin (%)	17.8	15.4	-2.4
Net interest income	(230)	(231)	0.4
Normalised PBT	17,083	17,963	5.2
PBT	13,552	12,181	-10.1
Tax	(2,759)	(2,386)	-13.5
Normalised net income	13,945	15,133	8.5
Net income	10,414	9,351	-10.2

Normalised dil. EPS (p)	22.2	24.0	8.2
EMIS adjusted dil. EPS (p)	20.5	22.1	7.8
Reported basic EPS (p)	16.6	14.9	-10.3

Net cash	1.3	0.7	-46.2

Source: EMIS, Edison Investment Research *Normalised excludes exceptionals, share-based payments and amortisation of acquired intangibles. **EMIS adjusted – as for normalised, also deducts capitalised R&D costs and adds back amortisation of development costs.

Exhibit 2: Divisional revenue and profits

	H115	H116	y-o-y (%)
Revenues
Primary & Community Care (PCC)	46,895	48,983	4.5
Community Pharmacy (CP)	9,778	10,348	5.8
Secondary & Specialist Care (SSC)	21,133	19,339	-8.5
EMIS adjusted operating profit
Primary & Community Care	13,408	14,745	10.0
Community Pharmacy	1,962	2,214	12.8
Secondary & Specialist Care	2,263	1,469	-35.1
Reported operating profit
Primary & Community Care	12,028	12,543	4.3
Community Pharmacy	2,134	2,714	27.2
Secondary & Specialist Care	402	-2,380	N/A

Source: EMIS

EMIS generated y-o-y growth of 1.1% in H116; once the Pinbellcom acquisition is excluded revenues were essentially flat y-o-y. We note that PCC revenues in H116 included £0.7m generated from the Pinbellcom acquisition as well as £0.7m in revenues from ePEX acute mental health software that was transferred in from Secondary Care in H116. Both PCC and CP showed steady growth in revenues and profitability. SSC saw a revenue decline of 4% once the ePEX revenue reclassification is taken into account, which resulted in a 35% decline in adjusted operating profit.

The company had previously noted that it was undertaking restructuring within the Secondary Care business; during the course of H116 this was expanded to other parts of the group, resulting in a one-off charge of £2.2m. The company expects the benefits of this to start to come through in H216. In H116, headcount reduced by 39 despite adding 79 staff in the India development centre.

EMIS announced a 10% increase in the interim dividend to 11.7p; matching this for the final dividend will give a full year dividend payout of 23.4p (+10% y-o-y).

Business update

Primary & Community Care (PCC)

EMIS maintained its GP market share at 55%, with 45% of CCGs in England now using 100% EMIS for primary care.

In Northern Ireland, the EMIS Web roll-out is scheduled to start in Q416 - once three test sites have been signed off, EMIS can accelerate the implementation and should finish the roll-out in 2017. The procurement process is underway for GPs in Scotland, who currently use EMIS PCS (Scotland already uses EMIS Web for CCMH). In Wales, renewals are being discussed (the existing framework expires 2019/2020).

CCMH1 market share increased from 12% at the end of FY15 to 14% at the end of H116. The company hopes to beat its year-end target of 15%. The company noted that it is seeing ongoing sluggishness in larger procurements. Since we last wrote in April, EMIS has signed contracts for child health with Barts Health, East Cheshire and Croydon and community health with Central London Community Healthcare NHS Trust, Croydon and Jersey Hospice. Contracts signed in H116 and H216 to date are worth more than £3.5m and are all for minimum terms of five years. The business sees a strong and growing pipeline of opportunities. Of the 45 CCGs using only EMIS for primary care, 23 also only use EMIS for CCMH.

CCMH: Child, Community & Mental Health

The company’s online resource to help patients manage their own health changed its domain from patient.co.uk to patient.info. This slowed traffic initially but is now higher than previous levels, with significant growth in international visitors. EMIS earns revenue from both advertising and transactional services (eg NHS pays for setting up appointments online). A new digital head has been recruited to drive this business forward.

The recent Pinbellcom acquisition has been integrated into EMIS’ non-clinical IT solutions and services business, Egton, and has been rebranded as Egton Digital.

Community Pharmacy (CP)

CP maintained its 36% share of the combined supermarket and independent pharmacy market. The business started pre-implementation activity for the previously announced Lloyds Pharmacy/AAH Pharmaceuticals contract – when fully rolled out this should take CP’s market share to 50%. CP has also won a contract to supply 100 sites that previously used Cegedim or PSL software, with implementation scheduled for this year.

The next generation ProScript Connect software has been accredited in Wales and Scotland, where live pilots started in Q216. The business expects to receive accreditation for England by the end of this year. roll-out starting in H2.

Nine pharmacies are currently piloting EMIS Web for Community Pharmacy, with full launch expected in 2017.

Secondary & Specialist Care (SSC)

The operational improvements in Secondary Care are largely complete, with cost benefits expected to come through in H2. The business continues to see slower rates of business for larger NHS procurements, but saw a good flow of small and mid-sized contracts, including a contract to supply a patient administration system to Northampton.

EMIS Health Specialist is involved in the procurement for a single English solution for retinopathy screening software, which has the potential to takes its share from the current 79% level to 100%.

EMIS Care won three diabetic eye screening contracts in H116, worth at least £10m in total. However, the business has found that implementation costs for contracts won from the NHS have been higher than expected, which partly contributed to SSC’s lower margins in H116. It has changed its approach to the bidding process to ensure this does not happen on future contracts. Profitability should improve over the life of the existing contracts.

Outlook and changes to forecasts

Management sees good order books and pipelines across every segment. The company expects to generate revenues for FY16 in the range £160-165m, down from the guidance given in March for revenues in the upper £160m range, but with adjusted operating profit expectations broadly unchanged. Net cash is expected to be close to zero at year-end.

We have revised our forecasts as follows:

■

Revenues: The majority of the reduction in our revenue forecast is due to lower revenues in SSC, with a small reduction in PCC, in both cases based on H116 performance.

■

Adjusted operating profit: The reduction in revenues has been partially offset by the reduction in capitalised development costs (see below). Restructuring undertaken in H116 should also reduce the cost base in H216. Overall, the result is a small decrease in our forecast adjusted operating profit in both years.

■

Exceptional items: £2.2m in restructuring costs in H116 partially offset by the £1.5m gain on sale of the stake in Pharmacy2U in H216.

■

Capex: We have reduced our tangible fixed asset capex forecast from £10m to £6m in FY16 and from £8m to £7m in FY17 reflecting lower hosting asset purchases. We have reduced capitalised development costs from £7.1m to £6.0m in FY16 and from £7.4m to £6.5m in FY17.

■

We have factored in the £1.5m proceeds from the sale of the stake in Pharmacy2U.

Exhibit 3: Changes to forecasts

£'000s	FY16e	FY16e	Change	y-o-y	FY17e	FY17e	Change	y-o-y
£'000s	Old	New	(%)	(%)	Old	New	(%)	(%)
Revenues	166,805	162,513	-2.6	4.2	176,856	172,178	-2.6	5.9
Normalised operating profit	39,971	39,660	-0.8	6.8	42,563	42,196	-0.9	6.4
Adjusted operating profit	39,249	38,954	-0.8	6.6	42,344	41,495	-2.0	6.5
Reported operating profit	32,314	31,311	-3.1	173.9	34,906	34,499	-1.2	10.2
Normalised EPS - p	48.9	48.6	-0.7	5.6	52.2	51.9	-0.6	6.9
Adjusted EPS - p	47.8	47.4	-0.7	5.2	51.9	50.8	-2.1	7.1
Reported EPS - p	39.4	38.2	-3.1	426.9	42.7	42.3	-0.9	11.0
Net cash/(debt)	2,244	(55)	-102.4	-99.4	22,995	18,815	-18.2	N/A

Source: Edison Investment Research

Valuation

EMIS is trading on a premium to its peer group on EV/Sales, EV/EBIT and EV/EBITDA multiples but a discount on a P/E basis. In our view, this reflects EMIS’ superior profitability. The stock also offers a higher dividend yield than most of its peer group. We believe that evidence of a re-acceleration in revenue growth (for example from a reinvigorated secondary care business) and that the recent restructuring is improving profitability should enable the company to trade at a small premium to peers on a P/E basis.

Exhibit 4: Peer group valuation metrics

(x)		EV/Sales			P/E			EV/EBIT			EV/EBITDA
(x)	y/e	15	16e	17e	15	16e	17e	15	16e	17e	15	16e	17e
EMIS	31-Dec	4.1	3.9	3.7	21.5	20.4	19.1	17.2	16.1	15.1	12.3	11.8	11.2
EMIS (cash R&D)					21.9	20.9	19.5	17.5	16.4	15.4

AllScripts	31-Dec	2.1	1.8	1.6	26.7	21.2	17.8	18.8	14.5	12.6	11.8	9.8	8.5
Cegedim	31-Dec	1.2	1.2	1.1	15.7	19.8	10.2	12.5	11.7	10.6	6.4	6.0	6.5
Cerner	31-Dec	4.8	4.3	3.9	29.5	26.4	23.1	19.6	17.8	15.4	14.6	13.0	11.4
Craneware	30-Jun	8.2	7.2	6.4	42.6	38.9	35.1	18.4	16.6	15.4	17.2	15.2	13.8
Servelec	31-Dec	3.0	2.9	2.6	13.8	13.2	10.8	11.6	10.2	8.1	11.0	9.4	7.6

Average		3.8	3.5	3.1	25.6	23.9	19.4	16.2	14.1	12.4	12.2	10.7	9.5

Source: Bloomberg (as at 12 September), Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 5: Peer group financial metrics

(%)		EBIT margin			EBITDA margin			Rev growth			Div yield
(%)	y/e	15	16e	17e	15	16e	17e	15	16e	17e	15	16e	17e
EMIS	31-Dec	23.8	24.4	24.5	33.3	33.3	33.2	13.3	4.2	5.9	2.1	2.4	2.5
EMIS (cash R&D)		23.4	24.0	24.1

AllScripts	31-Dec	10.9	12.4	13.0	17.4	18.4	19.2	-0.3	14.0	10.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cegedim	31-Dec	9.7	10.1	10.8	19.0	19.7	17.7	-53.2	2.6	3.3	0.0	2.5	3.3
Cerner	31-Dec	24.3	24.1	25.3	32.7	32.9	34.1	30.0	11.3	10.4	0.0	0.0	0.0
Craneware	30-Jun	29.8	28.8	27.8	31.8	31.4	31.2	11.2	14.9	11.3	1.2	1.4	1.5
Servelec	31-Dec	25.6	28.5	32.0	27.1	31.0	34.3	21.9	2.4	11.7	1.8	2.7	2.9

Average		20.1	20.8	21.8	25.6	26.7	27.3	1.9	9.0	9.4	0.6	1.3	1.6

Source: Bloomberg (as at 12 September), Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 6: Financial summary

	£'000s	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016e	2017e
Year end 31 December
PROFIT & LOSS
Revenue		86,333	105,542	137,639	155,898	162,513	172,178
Cost of Sales		(10,891)	(11,780)	(12,782)	(12,955)	(15,114)	(16,977)
Gross Profit		75,442	93,762	124,857	142,943	147,400	155,201
EBITDA		33,178	38,885	47,645	51,964	54,057	57,193
Operating Profit (before amort. of acq. intang, SBP and except.)		27,619	30,482	34,787	37,123	39,660	42,196
Amortisation of acquired intangibles		(2,983)	(4,198)	(6,269)	(6,509)	(6,697)	(6,697)
Exceptionals		(435)	(1,144)	873	(18,500)	(652)	0
Share-based payments		(90)	(195)	(270)	(684)	(1,000)	(1,000)
Operating Profit		24,111	24,945	29,121	11,430	31,311	34,499
Net Interest		(76)	(242)	(543)	(449)	(400)	(150)
Profit Before Tax (norm)		27,567	30,172	34,206	36,625	39,610	42,396
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)		24,059	24,635	28,540	10,932	31,261	34,699
Tax		(4,625)	(4,706)	(5,719)	(5,558)	(6,408)	(7,113)
Profit After Tax (norm)		23,191	25,179	27,617	29,801	31,490	33,705
Profit After Tax (FRS3)		19,434	19,929	22,821	5,374	24,852	27,586

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)		58.2	59.4	62.8	62.7	62.8	62.8
EPS - normalised (p)		39.0	41.4	42.8	46.0	48.6	51.9
EPS - FRS 3 (p)		32.5	32.6	35.3	7.2	38.2	42.3
Dividend (p)		14.2	16.0	18.4	21.2	23.4	24.4

Gross Margin (%)		87.4%	88.8%	90.7%	91.7%	90.7%	90.1%
EBITDA Margin (%)		38.4%	36.8%	34.6%	33.3%	33.3%	33.2%
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)		32.0%	28.9%	25.3%	23.8%	24.4%	24.5%

BALANCE SHEET
Fixed Assets		77,673	153,838	166,415	143,546	134,452	126,258
Intangible Assets		52,789	126,468	139,397	121,383	113,489	105,595
Tangible Assets		22,144	24,610	24,313	22,032	20,832	20,532
Other fixed assets		2,740	2,760	2,705	131	131	131
Current Assets		27,538	27,046	37,221	39,800	47,466	68,212
Stocks		1,243	1,431	1,550	1,206	1,206	1,206
Debtors		15,188	21,448	28,732	33,893	36,305	39,181
Cash		11,107	4,167	6,939	4,701	9,955	27,825
Current Liabilities		(30,598)	(54,530)	(67,665)	(63,819)	(53,819)	(55,244)
Creditors		(30,202)	(46,628)	(54,763)	(51,960)	(43,960)	(46,385)
Short term borrowings		(396)	(7,902)	(12,902)	(11,859)	(9,859)	(8,859)
Long Term Liabilities		(10,548)	(22,231)	(21,063)	(12,481)	(10,681)	(10,681)
Long term borrowings		(3,000)	(9,756)	(5,854)	(1,951)	(151)	(151)
Other long term liabilities		(7,548)	(12,475)	(15,209)	(10,530)	(10,530)	(10,530)
Net Assets		64,065	104,123	114,908	107,046	117,418	128,545

CASH FLOW
Operating Cash Flow		32,732	38,725	44,856	42,711	44,493	56,742
Net Interest		(60)	(580)	(445)	(422)	(300)	(50)
Tax		(4,566)	(5,073)	(5,247)	(6,896)	(8,120)	(8,691)
Capex		(18,342)	(15,025)	(15,161)	(14,058)	(12,000)	(13,500)
Acquisitions/disposals		(512)	(57,315)	(9,959)	(4,587)	(1,500)	0
Financing		(1,816)	27,212	(1,578)	492	600	(500)
Dividends		(7,735)	(9,146)	(10,792)	(14,532)	(14,118)	(15,131)
Net Cash Flow		(299)	(21,202)	1,674	2,708	9,054	18,869
Opening net debt/(cash)		(8,026)	(7,711)	13,491	11,817	9,109	55
HP finance leases initiated		0	0	0	0	0	0
Other		(16)	0	0	0	0	0
Closing net debt/(cash)		(7,711)	13,491	11,817	9,109	55	(18,815)

Source: EMIS, Edison Investment Research

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280 High Holborn

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Wellington 6011

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)4 8948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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EMIS Group (AIM: EMIS)

EMIS Group — Update 15 September 2016

TMT

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EML Payments — Growth cap lifted in the UK

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Portobello SpA — Focus back on the operations

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More on EMIS Group

EMIS Group — Final regulatory approval received for takeover

EMIS Group — H123 on track; 21.3p interim dividend declared

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EMIS Group — FY22 results in line

Latest from the TMT sector

EML Payments — Growth cap lifted in the UK

Zalaris — Commencement of strategic review

discoverIE Group — FY24 EPS in line; good margin progress

Next 15 Group — Baked in AI opportunities

Tissue Regenix — Update 15 September 2016

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