Findel — Update 27 January 2017

Findel — Update 27 January 2017

Findel

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Written by

David Stoddart

Findel

Customers boarding Express

Trading update

Retail

27 January 2017

Price

206p

Market cap

£178m

Net core bank debt (£m) at 31 December 2016

81.8

Shares in issue

86.4m

Free float

100%

Code

FDL

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

11.6

0.5

8.7

Rel (local)

10.1

(2.4)

(9.1)

52-week high/low

225p

130p

Business description

Findel has become a much more focused group in recent years and now comprises only two businesses: the home shopping retailer Express Gifts and education supplies business Findel Education.

Next events

Preliminary results

June 2017

Analysts

David Stoddart

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Paul Hickman

+44 (0)20 3681 2501

Findel is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Findel has reported further encouraging progress in its largest business, online value retailer Express Gifts. Customer acquisition is progressing faster than expected. While this imposes a drag on short-term profits growth, it enhances longer-term potential. This is not fully reflected in the current ratings, which result in a FY18e PEG ratio of 0.8x. Our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation is 265p.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/15

406.9

27.7

25.8

0.0

8.0

N/A

03/16

410.6

24.8

23.0

0.0

9.0

N/A

03/17e

459.4

25.5

24.5

0.0

8.4

N/A

03/18e

498.6

28.0

26.8

0.0

7.7

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding exceptional items and share-based payments.

Strong trading

Findel has reported group sales growth of over 11% in the 16 weeks since 1 October. In its most important trading period, Express Gifts generated a 14% revenue increase, driven by 15% growth in product sales. Education, in a relatively quiet period for that business, further slowed the pace of its sales decline to 1.7%.

Estimates trimmed but business strengthened

Our estimates for Education are broadly unchanged. However, we have trimmed our profit estimates for Express to reflect the continuing success of its customer recruitment programme. Clearly, the increasing customer base enhances the business’s potential in the longer term. However, in the short term it imposes a drag on profits growth because new customers do not offset the costs to recruit them in their first quarter. The increased volumes of Far East-sourced product resulting from faster revenue growth will increase the currency headwinds that were already expected.

Valuation: Undemanding

Bearing in mind the extent to which Express dominates the group and the appeal of its online value proposition, an FY17e P/E of 8.4x is far from generous when seen in the context of the multiples of other online retailers. For that matter, it represents a meaningful discount to the forward multiple of its nearest comparator, N Brown, of 9.8x. One has to concede that N Brown is supported by an attractive dividend yield and we do not expect Findel to commence dividend payments in the near future. It is true that Findel carries a heavy net debt burden, but equally the case that this is well supported by a high-quality consumer credit book. We expect year-end core net debt to represent less than 2x EBITDA. Our SOTP valuation, which reflects the increase in the N Brown rating since our last update note (9 December), increases from 252p to 265p.

Trading update

Express Gifts

Findel’s largest business (c 90% FY18e EBIT), online value retailer Express Gifts, performed well during its peak trading season. In the 16 weeks since 1 October, Express’ total sales increased by 14%, within which product sales increased 15.0%. All product categories increased sales, with household and clothing particularly strong.

Express’s focus this year has been on customer recruitment. Plans to increase the customer base have clearly succeeded: the number of customers increased by 13% to 1.56m at the end of December. In addition, Express improved customer retention through a number of actions including improvements to websites that were launched in April 2016.

Education

Findel Education saw a continuation of its improving sales trends in this relatively quiet period in its year, with the year-on-year sales decline narrowing from 5.4% at the half-year to 1.7% in H2 to date. As previously reported, its major warehouse consolidation project has now been successfully completed which should deliver cost benefits in a full year of c £3m.

Exceptional items

Having incurred exceptional charges of £3.8m in H1, Findel expects to incur a further c £4m of charges in H2, taking the FY17 total to c £8m. Roughly half of the H2 charge will relate to non-cash impairment charges covering the write-off of redundant brands within Express and the legacy website in Education that will be replaced later this year. The remaining c £2m of cash charges covers reorganisation costs within Express that management estimates will have a two-year payback. Reassuringly, there has been no change to the provision required for financial services redress and refunds.

Further strengthening of finances

Improving finances have been a recurring theme of recent years and continue. Findel reduced core net bank debt (excluding finance leases) by £9.3m to £81.8m at the end of December 2016, despite strong growth in the working capital requirements to support Express Gifts' additional recruitment.

Estimates

Findel noted within its update that it expects FY17 PBT to be broadly within the range of existing estimates, which Findel believes lies between £25.5m and £26.1m. We have reduced our FY17e PBT estimate by c £0.5m to £25.5m to reflect the changes in plans within Express.

We have increased our revenue forecast for Express to reflect the strong growth in customer numbers and Express’s stated plan to extend its recruitment activity for the first time into the final quarter. However, the additional stock of good-value products purchased from the Far East in US dollars to support this TV and digital recruitment activity will produce a lower product margin following the weakening of sterling. Moreover, we assume that the increased number of customers has led to a further increase in the bad debt ratio towards the level that management regards as optimal. We have also reflected the fact that new customers do not buy enough in their first three months to cover Express’s costs to recruit them, ie there is a profit drag from new customers that unwinds progressively. This final element is the principal factor explaining why we have reduced our FY17e Express EBIT estimate by c £0.5m to £35.1m.

The rate of sales decline within Education was slightly better than we modelled for H2. However, it covers a relatively less important trading period for the division so the impact is marginal.

Our net debt estimate has increased to reflect the working capital needs attending the growth in customer numbers. However, we expect core net bank debt, which excludes borrowings used to finance Express’s credit book, to be broadly in line with our previous estimate of c £80m. On that basis, core net bank debt will fall below 2x EBITDA, a key milestone in Findel’s financial rehabilitation.

Exhibit 1: Changes to estimates

EPS (p)

PBT (£m)

EBITDA (£m)

Old

New

% chg

Old

New

% chg

Old

New

% chg

03/17e

24.9

24.5

-1.6%

26.0

25.5

-1.8%

45.0

44.6

-0.8%

03/18e

27.3

26.8

-2.0%

28.6

28.0

-2.2%

48.4

48.1

-0.7%

Source: Edison Investment Research

Valuation

Although we have trimmed our FY17e estimates for Findel, our sum-of-the-parts valuation has increased from 252p to 265p. The principal reason for this increase is the performance of N Brown shares, the nearest benchmark for Express, since we last updated our valuation. We have increased the rating that we apply to Express within the SOTP to reflect that, although we discount the N Brown rating in our model to reflect its attractive dividend yield and the absence of a dividend at Findel. We have also updated net debt within the model to the latest value provided by management in the trading update and used the most recent pension deficit from the interim statement.

Exhibit 2: Sum-of-the-parts valuation

£'000s

Basis

Metric

Multiple

Value

Express (incl securitisation facility)

Estimated NOPAT FY17

27,716

9.2

254,508

Education

Estimated FY18 EBITDA

9,127

8.0

73,815

FASL

Estimated NOPAT FY17

-459

9.2

-4,219

Enterprise value

324,104

Core net debt

December 2016 via Q3 trading update

(81,800)

Pension deficit

Interim balance sheet 30 September 2016

(12,846)

Equity value

229,458

# shares

86,443

SOTP value per share (p)

265p

Source: Findel, Edison Investment Research

The FY17e and FY18e P/Es at 265p would be 10.8x and 9.9x respectively, neither of which we would regard as challenging. The EV/EBITDA ratios for those two years would be 10.4x and 10.0x. However, we note that most of Findel’s debt is funding Express Gifts’ high-quality consumer credit book. We model core net bank debt to be less than 2x EBITDA at the end of FY17. If one excluded the funding for consumer credit from EV, the EV/EBITDA ratios for FY17e and FY18e would be 5.8x and 5.4x respectively.

There are concerns about UK-government-imposed cost increases in the retail sector this year, although it is important to stress that these will have a much smaller impact on Findel than on many other retailers, particularly store-based ones. There are further concerns in some quarters that UK consumer demand will suffer badly from Brexit fears, albeit retail trade has held up well since June. Moreover, we have trimmed our profit estimates for the next two years although that is because of the success of a customer recruitment programme that we believe increases longer-term earnings potential. We acknowledge therefore that there are justifications for caution. However, on current estimates, the FY18e PEG ratio is 0.8x, which appears unduly severe.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

£'000s

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017e

2018e

March

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

491,233

402,200

406,930

410,601

459,365

498,615

Cost of Sales

(254,481)

(265,468)

(215,146)

(213,479)

(237,101)

(260,545)

Gross Profit

236,752

136,732

191,784

197,122

222,264

238,070

EBITDA

 

 

31,999

43,320

45,136

41,758

44,610

48,077

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

26,787

39,224

41,686

37,264

38,584

41,991

Intangible Amortisation

(2,621)

(2,848)

(3,029)

(2,348)

(1,930)

(2,027)

Operating profit pre exc post intang amortisation

24,166

36,376

38,657

34,916

36,654

39,964

Exceptionals

(11,031)

(16,928)

(27,036)

(25,458)

(3,167)

0

Other/share based payments

(1,847)

(1,698)

(861)

(239)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Operating Profit

11,288

17,750

10,760

9,219

32,487

38,964

Net Interest

(10,523)

(9,876)

(10,097)

(9,901)

(10,131)

(10,995)

Financial exceptional items

(283)

(472)

(136)

(998)

735

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

11,796

24,802

27,699

24,776

25,522

27,970

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

482

7,402

527

(1,680)

23,090

27,970

Tax

1,103

(1,857)

(5,323)

91

(4,563)

(5,874)

Profit After Tax (norm)

12,130

22,563

21,994

19,785

21,153

23,096

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

2,890

2,219

(25,261)

(10,196)

18,527

22,096

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

84.8

84.8

85.2

86.1

86.3

86.3

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

14.3

23.7

25.8

23.0

24.5

26.8

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p)

 

12.1

19.9

22.2

20.3

21.6

23.6

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

3.4

2.6

(29.7)

(11.8)

21.5

25.6

Dividend per share (p)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

48.2

34.0

47.1

48.0

48.4

47.7

EBITDA Margin (%)

6.5

10.8

11.1

10.2

9.7

9.6

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

5.5

9.8

10.2

9.1

8.4

8.4

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

140,839

133,047

94,428

92,927

98,706

99,594

Intangible Assets

100,892

90,337

50,217

47,322

47,638

50,611

Tangible Assets

31,329

34,644

35,070

41,423

43,041

40,955

Investments

8,618

8,066

9,141

4,182

8,028

8,028

Current Assets

 

 

327,016

301,960

328,250

321,279

334,850

366,496

Stocks

58,896

64,406

65,405

53,472

58,889

64,658

Debtors

210,234

213,284

224,375

229,848

263,900

294,777

Cash

34,023

24,270

38,470

34,405

10,536

5,536

Other

23,863

0

0

3,554

1,525

1,525

Current Liabilities

 

 

(86,941)

(82,861)

(82,340)

(76,191)

(80,805)

(85,242)

Creditors

(86,941)

(82,861)

(82,340)

(75,673)

(80,273)

(84,710)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

(518)

(532)

(532)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(280,443)

(240,498)

(257,628)

(259,140)

(263,514)

(274,346)

Long term borrowings

(259,176)

(231,223)

(245,021)

(250,569)

(245,252)

(255,252)

Other long term liabilities

(21,267)

(9,275)

(12,607)

(8,571)

(18,262)

(19,094)

Net Assets

 

 

100,471

111,648

82,710

78,875

89,238

106,502

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

26,500

26,097

19,250

8,889

2,692

10,868

Net Interest

(10,000)

(9,482)

(9,938)

(9,549)

(9,709)

(10,995)

Tax

(1,761)

(998)

(1,396)

(2,494)

(4,000)

(5,874)

Capex

(8,259)

(11,831)

(10,269)

(15,940)

(9,927)

(9,000)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

15,461

1,720

11,115

2,318

0

Financing

0

0

(500)

0

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

6,480

19,247

(1,133)

(7,979)

(18,626)

(15,000)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

230,659

226,168

206,953

206,551

216,682

235,248

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

(1,989)

(32)

1,535

(2,152)

60

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

226,168

206,953

206,551

216,682

235,248

250,248

Source: Findel, Edison Investment Research

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt and Sydney. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Findel and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt and Sydney. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Findel and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Ceres Power Holdings — Update 26 January 2017

Ceres Power Holdings

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