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If Fluence can deliver on its H218e target, its shares could re-rate sharply. Its membrane-aerated biofilm reactor (MABR) technology provides a competitive advantage in the growing market for decentralised water treatment. We see the ramp in sales here transforming its scale, revenue visibility and profitability by FY20e. The shares currently trade at a 28% discount to peers’ FY20 EV/EBITDA and a DCF approach, which assumes delivery in H2 and beyond, suggests value up to A$0.85 per share.

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