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Towards the end of H117 one of the numerous development programmes for photonics applications that IQE has been working on moved to volume production. The programme, which we infer relates to 3D sensing in the iPhone X, potentially has a transformational impact on IQE’s performance. Until there is clarity on the rate of roll-out of the new phone however, our estimates, which are unchanged from the trading update in July, model a cautious ramp-up in IQE’s epitaxy sales. The share price is looking for performance substantially ahead of this, which our scenario analysis suggests is achievable. Importantly, even if demand for the iPhone X is muted, IQE is engaged in multiple photonics development programmes with the potential to generate transformational levels of growth.

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