Learning Technologies Group — Strong organic growth puts LTG ahead of target

Learning Technologies Group — Strong organic growth puts LTG ahead of target

Learning Technologies Group (LTG) announced a strong set of H1 results, incorporating c 18% underlying organic growth. LEO, Rustici, Preloaded and gomo have been performing exceptionally well and the numbers were slightly ahead of management plans. Consequently, we have upgraded our forecasts, with profits getting an additional boost from the incorporation of LTG accounting policies at NetDimensions. Given the attractive growth drivers, the P/E of c 24x our FY18e EPS is not demanding and our DCF analysis indicates upside potential of 31% to 87%.

Katherine Thompson

Written by

Katherine Thompson

Director

Learning Technologies Group

Strong organic growth puts LTG ahead of target

Interim results

Software & comp services

19 September 2017

Price

52p

Market cap

£297m

Net debt (£m) at 30 June 2017

6.1

Shares in issue

570m

Free float

56.8%

Code

LTG

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

4.4

9.4

51.2

Rel (local)

5.2

11.9

37.7

52-week high/low

54.8p

30.0p

Business description

Learning Technologies Group is a broad-based e-learning technology business, providing a range of software and services to both private enterprises and the public sector.

Next events

Trading update

January 2018

Final results

April 2018

Analysts

Richard Jeans

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

Learning Technologies Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Learning Technologies Group (LTG) announced a strong set of H1 results, incorporating c 18% underlying organic growth. LEO, Rustici, Preloaded and gomo have been performing exceptionally well and the numbers were slightly ahead of management plans. Consequently, we have upgraded our forecasts, with profits getting an additional boost from the incorporation of LTG accounting policies at NetDimensions. Given the attractive growth drivers, the P/E of c 24x our FY18e EPS is not demanding and our DCF analysis indicates upside potential of 31% to 87%.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/15

19.9

3.9

0.76

0.15

68.5

0.3

12/16

28.3

6.4

1.18

0.21

43.9

0.4

12/17e

50.5

11.1

1.65

0.28

31.5

0.5

12/18e

58.0

15.5

2.17

0.38

24.0

0.7

Note: *PBT and EPS (fully diluted) are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

H1 results: Underlying organic growth of c 18-19%

H1 organic growth was 33%, including 3-4% FX tailwind (46% of revenues are from outside the UK) and a c 11% one-off effect from the CSL contract. That leaves underlying growth at c 18-19%. The H1 operating margin dipped as planned, due to the initial inclusion of low-margin NetDimensions, but cost savings from the acquisition are on target and will begin coming through in H2. Recurring revenues were 37% of the total, and are expected to approach 50% in the full year. The group ended the period with net debt of £6.1m. There are also outstanding acquisition liabilities of c £9.3m, the majority of which are contingent on incremental revenue growth, which takes the adjusted net debt to £15.4m.

Forecasts: EPS edge up by 3% in FY18, 2% in FY19

We have edged up our revenue forecasts by 2% in FY17 and 1% in FY18 and FY19. EBITDA rises as LTG brings NetDimensions’ accounting policy on internally generated software in line with LTG’s accounting policy. We have also edged up our interest and tax forecasts. As a result, adjusted diluted EPS rises by 13% in FY17, 3% in FY18 and 2% in FY19. After making some adjustments to the cash flow, we now forecast the group to end FY17 with net debt of £6.9m (previously £8.0m).

Valuation: DCF analysis suggests 68-97p range

Given the strong industry growth rates and LTG’s unique position in the e-learning space, we do not believe that the current P/E rating of c 24x in FY18e and 22x in FY19e is at all demanding. Our DCF model suggests a value of 68-97p if management can generate organic growth rates in the mid-teens and drive operating margins to 30% from 24.6% in FY16. Further acquisitions could also increase the company’s scale and enhance earnings.

H1 results: Total organic revenue growth of 33%

H1 organic revenue growth was 33%, including 3-4% FX tailwind (46% of revenues are from outside the UK) and a c 11% one-off effect from the CSL contract. That leaves underlying growth at c 18-19%, which we understand is at record levels. LEO, Rustici, Preloaded and gomo have been performing exceptionally well and the numbers were slightly ahead of management plans. Over the last year, attention had been focused on delivering the CSL contract, but from early FY17 new business began to pick up pace and the order book remains at record levels. Management has implemented a “co-ordinated selling” strategy to help drive cross sales across the business units. gomo, which is an authoring tool, is an important part of this strategy, as it helps build customer relationships. While it can cost the group short-term revenues, ie, small content creation projects that LEO could handle, it helps introduce larger projects when customers do not have the capacity or technological capability to deliver these more complex projects on their own. gomo revenues grew by c 70% in H117. Rustici has also been growing at pace, and full earn-outs are expected to be paid for this business. While management was anticipating a decline in the legacy SCORM business as the new xAPI standard picks up pace, SCORM business has continued to grow. Preloaded has won several high-profile virtual reality projects and had also been growing at pace. Further, Eukleia has been growing well, and is expected to benefit from the introduction of MiFID II in 2018. As part of LTGs “co-ordinated selling” strategy, Eukleia can offer industrial customers assessments to cover the Modern Slavery Act 2015.

The H117 operating margin dipped to 19.2% from 23.0% in H116, due to the initial inclusion of low-margin NetDimensions, which contributed for three months. The restructuring at NetDimensions has been extensive with the unit’s annualised cost base on target to be reduced by $8m. These savings will begin coming through in H2 and will help bring margins back to normal levels. LTG has shifted its focus away from EBITDA and to EBIT (adjusted operating profit). Recurring revenues were 37% of the total, and are expected to approach 50% in the full year, since c 70% of NetDimensions’ revenue is recurring in nature. The company increased the interim dividend by 29% to 0.09p.

Back in April, management stressed that it was focused on the integration of NetDimensions and near-term attention was on organic growth. However, with NetDimensions now largely integrated, management is on the lookout for acquisitions, with a focus on domain specific expertise, eg pharmaceuticals, or add-on software tools.

Exhibit 1: Half-by-half analysis

£000s

H116

H216

FY16

H117

H217e

FY17e

FY18e

Total revenue

12,785

15,478

28,263

21,472

29,024

50,496

58,026

Opex before depn & amortisation

(9,916)

(11,471)

(21,387)

(17,527)

(21,732)

(39,259)

(42,508)

Capitalisation of development costs

378

418

796

667

1,479

2,146

2,466

Adjusted EBITDA

3,247

4,425

7,672

4,612

8,771

13,383

17,983

EBITDA margin

25.4%

28.6%

27.1%

21.5%

30.2%

26.5%

31.0%

Amortisation of development costs

(164)

(241)

(405)

(280)

(420)

(700)

(1,200)

Depreciation

(146)

(174)

(320)

(205)

(375)

(580)

(621)

Adjusted operating profit

2,937

4,010

6,947

4,127

7,976

12,103

16,163

Operating margin

23.0%

25.9%

24.6%

19.2%

27.5%

24.0%

27.9%

Associates

(102)

(103)

(205)

(80)

(320)

(400)

0

Net interest

(155)

(202)

(357)

(339)

(311)

(650)

(650)

Edison profit before tax (norm)

2,680

3,705

6,385

3,708

7,345

11,053

15,513

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(1,536)

(1,664)

(3,200)

(3,042)

(2,958)

(6,000)

(6,000)

Share-based payments

(300)

(305)

(605)

(218)

(482)

(700)

(800)

Exceptional items

(1,779)

(1,994)

(3,773)

(2,346)

(1,854)

(4,200)

(3,000)

Profit before tax (FRS 3)

(935)

(258)

(1,193)

(1,898)

2,051

153

5,713

Source: Learning Technologies Group (historicals), Edison Investment Research (forecasts).

The company has introduced new information that reveals how revenue breaks down by nature. This is very helpful given that the group operates a range of business models. The content category represents the group’s core content creation business, including LEO, Preloaded and Eukleia. Software licences is primarily Rustici’s and NetDimensions’ annual licences. Hosting and SaaS is gomo and NetDimensions’ “Secure SaaS” business. Platform development is predominantly the customisation of the Moodle open-source platform for customers. Other non-e-learning is the face-to-face training business of Eukleia.

Exhibit 2: Revenue breakdown by nature

£000s

FY16

H116

H117

Change H117 over H116 (%)

e-learning revenues

Recurring

Non-recurring

Recurring

Non-recurring

Recurring

Non-recurring

Recurring

Non-recurring

Content

14,118

6,109

9,935

63

Software licences

6,630

949

2,792

487

4,798

598

72

23

Hosting and SaaS

689

8

309

0

2,878

5

831

N/A

Support & maintenance

574

330

179

258

(22)

Consulting

853

440

472

7

Platform development

1,419

572

1,406

146

Other

1,147

856

322

(62)

Totals

7,319

19,068

3,101

8,794

7,855

12,996

153

48

Total e-learning

26,387

11,895

20,851

75

Other non-e-learning

1,876

890

621

(30)

Total group revenue

28,263

12,785

21,472

68

Source: Learning Technologies Group

There was significant change to the balance sheet over the H1 period as the group acquired the enterprise LMS software provider NetDimensions for £53.6m in cash and funded the acquisition with a share placement. We note NetDimensions has a significant net cash position. There have also been additional acquisition payments, primarily for Rustici, which have been expensed through operating cash flow, as required by IFRS. There were estimated outstanding acquisition liabilities of £9.3m as at 30 June, which includes £1.5m “squeeze out” of NetDimensions minorities that was paid after the period end. The balance of these acquisition liabilities is contingent on incremental revenue growth in 2018 and 2019. In March 2017, LTG announced a new debt facility with Silicon Valley Bank, comprising a £10m term loan and a £10m revolving credit facility, both of which are available to LTG for five years. Hence, the group has financing available to make tuck in acquisitions with £11.5m cash on the balance sheet.

Exhibit 3: Adjusted net debt position

£000s

31/12/15

31/12/16

31/6/17

Cash & bank balances

(7,305)

(5,348)

(11,498)

Short-term borrowings

0

3,252

1,922

Long-term borrowings

0

10,582

15,663

Net debt (cash)

(7,305)

8,486

6,087

Outstanding acquisition liabilities

1,249

10,700

9,300

Adjusted net debt (cash)

(6,056)

19,186

15,387

Net assets

25,144

30,710

73,768

Adjusted net debt/equity

(24.1%)

62.5%

20.9%

Source: Learning Technologies Group

Forecast changes: Revenues and EPS edge up

We have edged up our revenue forecasts by 2% in FY17 and 1% in FY18 and FY19. Adjusted EBITDA rises by more, as LTG brings NetDimensions’ accounting policy on internally generated software in line with LTG’s accounting policy and this will result in significantly higher levels of capitalised development costs, with amortisation picking up from FY18. We eased associates’ losses in FY17, as the H1 Watershed loss was lower than we had expected. We have also increased our interest and tax forecasts. As a result, adjusted diluted EPS rises by 13% in FY17, 3% in FY18 and 2% in FY19. After making some adjustments to the cash flow (tax, capex, M&A, fund-raising and dividends), we now forecast the group to end FY17 with net debt of £6.9m (previously £8.0m).

Exhibit 4: Forecast changes

£000s

Old

New

Change (%)

Old

New

Change (%)

Old

New

Change (%)

2017e

2017e

2018e

2018e

2019e

2019e

Group revenues

49,546

50,496

2

57,651

58,026

1

59,010

59,470

1

Growth (%)

75.3

78.7

 

16.4

14.9

 

2.4

2.5

 

Opex before depn & amortisation

(38,902)

(39,259)

1

(42,471)

(42,508)

0

(42,986)

(43,032)

0

Capitalisation of dev costs

1,474

2,146

46

1,715

2,466

44

1,756

2,527

44

Adjusted EBITDA

12,118

13,383

10

16,895

17,983

6

17,780

18,966

7

Amortisation of dev costs

(700)

(700)

 

(800)

(1,200)

 

(899)

(1,400)

 

Depreciation

(580)

(580)

 

(621)

(621)

 

(664)

(664)

 

Adjusted operating profit

10,838

12,103

12

15,474

16,163

4

16,217

16,902

4

Operating margin (%)

21.9

24.0

 

26.8

27.9

 

27.5

28.4

 

Growth (%)

56.0

74.2

 

42.8

33.5

 

4.8

4.6

 

Associates

(500)

(400)

 

0

0

 

500

500

 

Net interest

(650)

(650)

 

(600)

(650)

 

(400)

(600)

 

Profit before tax norm

9,688

11,053

14

14,874

15,513

4

16,317

16,802

3

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(3,200)

(6,000)

 

(3,200)

(6,000)

 

(3,200)

(6,000)

 

Share based payments

(1,200)

(700)

 

(800)

(800)

 

(900)

(900)

 

Exceptional items

(4,200)

(4,200)

 

(3,000)

(3,000)

 

0

0

 

Profit before tax (reported)

1,088

153

(86)

7,874

5,713

(27)

12,217

9,902

(19)

Taxation

(1,274)

(1,546)

21

(2,231)

(2,482)

11

(2,570)

(2,812)

9

Net income

(185)

(1,393)

 

5,643

3,231

 

9,647

7,090

 

Statutory EPS (p)

(0.03)

(0.26)

 

0.99

0.57

 

1.68

1.23

 

Adjusted diluted EPS (p)

1.46

1.65

13

2.10

2.17

3

2.27

2.31

2

P/E - Adjusted EPS (x)

31.5

 

24.0

 

22.5

 

Source: Edison Investment Research


Exhibit 5: Financial summary

£000s

2014

2015

2016

2017e

2018e

2019e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

14,920

19,905

28,263

50,496

58,026

59,470

EBITDA

 

2,225

4,338

7,672

13,383

17,983

18,966

Adjusted Operating Profit

 

1,965

3,908

6,947

12,103

16,163

16,902

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(570)

(1,203)

(3,200)

(6,000)

(6,000)

(6,000)

Exceptionals

(621)

(665)

(3,773)

(4,200)

(3,000)

0

Operating Profit

774

2,040

(26)

1,903

7,163

10,902

Associates

(160)

(62)

(205)

(400)

0

500

Share based payments

(583)

(776)

(605)

(700)

(800)

(900)

Net Interest

(158)

12

(357)

(650)

(650)

(600)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

1,647

3,858

6,385

11,053

15,513

16,802

Profit Before Tax (Statutory)

 

(127)

1,214

(1,193)

153

5,713

9,902

Tax

(35)

(258)

(133)

(1,546)

(2,482)

(2,812)

Profit After Tax (norm)

1,612

3,034

5,385

9,507

13,031

13,990

Profit After Tax (Statutory)

(162)

956

(1,326)

(1,393)

3,231

7,090

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

332.03

373.51

418.62

545.40

571.62

574.48

EPS - normalised (p)

 

0.49

0.81

1.29

1.74

2.28

2.44

EPS - normalised & fully diluted (p)

 

0.46

0.76

1.18

1.65

2.17

2.31

EPS - Statutory (p)

 

(0.05)

0.26

(0.32)

(0.26)

0.57

1.23

Dividend per share (p)

0.10

0.15

0.21

0.28

0.38

0.52

EBITDA Margin (%)

14.9

21.8

27.1

26.5

31.0

31.9

Op Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

13.2

19.6

24.6

24.0

27.9

28.4

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

12,337

19,502

45,558

87,457

82,799

77,857

Intangible assets and deferred tax

11,982

18,959

41,667

83,239

78,505

73,632

Tangible Assets

339

543

708

1,035

1,111

1,041

Investments & other

16

0

3,183

3,183

3,183

3,183

Current Assets

 

9,263

13,913

14,214

27,896

37,179

45,454

Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Debtors

4,905

6,608

8,866

17,717

19,236

20,176

Cash

4,358

7,305

5,348

10,179

17,943

25,278

Current Liabilities

 

(5,184)

(6,146)

(13,058)

(19,789)

(21,453)

(22,421)

Creditors

(5,184)

(6,146)

(9,806)

(16,537)

(18,201)

(19,169)

Short term borrowings

0

0

(3,252)

(3,252)

(3,252)

(3,252)

Long Term Liabilities

 

(2,007)

(2,125)

(16,004)

(19,204)

(19,204)

(19,204)

Long term borrowings

0

0

(10,582)

(13,782)

(13,782)

(13,782)

Other long term liabilities

(2,007)

(2,125)

(5,422)

(5,422)

(5,422)

(5,422)

Net Assets

 

14,409

25,144

30,710

76,360

79,321

81,686

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

936

4,735

3,021

7,633

14,783

15,966

Net Interest

4

12

(274)

(650)

(650)

(600)

Tax

(32)

(483)

(645)

(1,200)

(1,382)

(2,327)

Capex

(321)

(542)

(1,218)

(2,853)

(3,162)

(3,122)

Acquisitions/disposals*

(4,586)

(7,779)

(14,583)

(46,739)

0

0

Financing

7,291

7,419

647

46,720

0

0

Dividends

(107)

(448)

(712)

(1,280)

(1,825)

(2,582)

Net Cash Flow

3,185

2,914

(13,764)

1,631

7,764

7,335

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

(1,170)

(4,358)

(7,305)

8,486

6,855

(909)

Other

3

33

(2,027)

(0)

0

(0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

(4,358)

(7,305)

8,486

6,855

(909)

(8,244)

Source: Learning Technologies Group (historicals), Edison Investment Research (forecasts). Note: *The outflow in FY17 represents the cost of acquiring NetDimensions less assumed net cash position on acquisition.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Elk Petroleum — Operator of Aneth CO2 EOR project

Elk Petroleum is to acquire a 63% operated interest in the Aneth Rocky Mountain CO2 EOR project, transforming the company into one of the largest producers on the ASX. Management forecasts 2018 net production of 11,000boe/d. At US$160m, the deal is priced at a material discount to management’s estimates of 1P (NPV10) at US$288m, with the consideration to be funded through a combination of new equity and debt. An equity placement to raise A$27.5m was priced at A$0.062 (a 22% discount to last close and 10% below the six-month trading average), with the balance funded through a US$98m debt facility from Riverstone Credit Partners and institutional lenders and up to US$55m in preferred equity provided by the AB Energy Opportunity Fund.

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