McBride — Update 27 February 2017

McBride — Update 27 February 2017

McBride

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Written by

McBride

Preparing for growth

Consumer

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27 February 2017

Price

175.5p

Market cap

£320m

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Share details

Code

MCB

Listing

LSE

Shares in issue

182.1m

Business description

McBride is Europe’s leading provider of private-label household and personal care products, supplying Europe’s top 50 retailers. It has production capability in 11 countries and is growing a presence in Central and Eastern Europe, and South-East Asia.

Bull

Management focused on tight cost control.

Contract manufacturing a new source of growth.

Customer service levels now among the best in class.

Bear

Raw material costs volatile and generally rising.

Consumers currently moving back to brands and away from private label.

Execution risks remain with the turnaround programme.

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0) 20 3077 5700

Paul Hickman

+44 (0)20 3681 2501

McBride is halfway through its restructuring plan, having completed the Repair phase, and is now implementing the Prepare part. This should set McBride up for more sustainable and profitable growth. What sets this programme apart from previous attempts is management’s absolute focus on tight cost control and business simplification. This should avoid increased overheads and complexity creeping back into the system as the business starts to grow again.

Holding steady

H1 results were in line with expectations, and guidance for the year remains unchanged, which is positive in a volatile environment. In H2, McBride faces challenges with sterling weakness and raw material cost increases, and there is likely to be the usual lag in passing on the higher costs to customers. In addition, the current consumer trend to revert towards brands is not helpful, though it is more pronounced in the much smaller personal care category than in the household space. Customer service is now at best-in-class levels, which is a step change from previous legacy issues and should stand the business in good stead for expansion.

Contract manufacturing: A new growth area?

We are encouraged by the increased trend for contract manufacturing. McBride’s engagement here is testament to management’s simplification of the business, investment in technology and hugely improved customer service levels. With branded manufacturers increasingly under pressure to review cost structures, we believe contract manufacturing could prove to be a new area of growth.

So far, so good

The medium term (three- to five-year) target of 7.5% adjusted EBITA margin and 25-30% ROCE has already been partly delivered, just 18 months into the restructuring programme, with ROCE of 28%. Adjusted EBITA margin is on the right track at 6.4%, and net debt cover ratio (net debt/EBITDA) is now down to 1.4x.

Valuation: Turnaround yet to be reflected

McBride trades on 13.4x FY17e P/E and 11.8x FY18e P/E, which is a sharp discount to the household sector. The simplification of the business should provide a solid platform on which to build further growth. A re-rating is obviously conditional on the successful delivery of the turnaround programme and ensuring that cost savings fall through to the bottom line, but so far the results have been promising.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(£m)

PBT
(£m)

EPS
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

06/16

680.9

29.4

11.1

3.6

15.8

2.1

06/17e

699.5

33.7

13.1

4.2

13.4

2.4

06/18e

709.8

39.0

14.9

4.9

11.8

2.8

06/19e

727.3

43.5

16.4

5.3

10.7

3.0

Source: Bloomberg, company data

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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Germany

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280 High Holborn

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United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205, 95 Pitt Street

Sydney NSW 2000

Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205, 95 Pitt Street

Sydney NSW 2000

Australia

Disclaimer

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers’ exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are "wholesale clients" for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document.
A marketing communication under FCA rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a "personalised service" and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a "class service" provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited ("FTSE") (c) FTSE [2017]. "FTSE(r)" is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205, 95 Pitt Street

Sydney NSW 2000

Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205, 95 Pitt Street

Sydney NSW 2000

Australia

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