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Orexo’s Q3 highlighted a strong financial quarter. Zubsolv US revenue declines of 15% vs Q316 (Q316 benefited from significant one-time wholesaler stocking of Zubsolv) were offset by tight cost control, which resulted in positive EBITDA and operating cash flow generation for an eighth consecutive quarter. For 2018, US commercial and public formulary coverage has improved, which will have a positive impact on US Zubsolv sales from 1 January vs 2017 sales. However, a continued skew towards the public market segment in the US opioid dependency market class in general has led to downward revisions to our US Zubsolv peak sales forecasts. Also, the EMA has approved Zubsolv for Europe and partner Mundipharma should launch in H118. Our revised valuation is SEK2.7bn.

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