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Orexo made significant progress in 2016 towards becoming a sustainable speciality pharma company, with continued Zubsolv revenue growth contributing to a first full year of profitability. Key achievements included the ex-US global Mundipharma licence deal for Zubsolv (EMA filing in Q4), and the first large exclusive Medicaid FFS contract in Maryland. Despite this, and ahead of major newsflow in 2017, IP infringement litigation remains a stock overhang with Orexo trading near 52-week lows. We believe the market’s view of Zubsolv’s prospects is too pessimistic. Our new assumptions, updated for evolving market dynamics, generate a SEK3.16bn or SEK91/share valuation (vs SEK4.54bn or SEK131/share).

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