PDL BioPharma — Update 8 December 2016

PDL BioPharma (US: PDLI)

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Research: Healthcare

PDL BioPharma — Update 8 December 2016

PDL BioPharma

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Healthcare

PDL BioPharma

A transitional quarter

Q3 earnings

Pharma & biotech

8 December 2016

Price

US$2.08

Market cap

US$344m

Net debt ($m) as at 30 September 2016

45.3

Shares in issue

165.5m

Free float

96%

Code

PDLI

Primary exchange

NASDAQ

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(35.0)

(35.8)

(42.4)

Rel (local)

(38.2)

(37.4)

(46.6)

52-week high/low

US$3.8

US$2.1

Business description

PDL BioPharma is reinventing itself as a healthcare-focused finance company through a three-pronged strategy: investing in royalty streams; providing high-yield financing to life science companies with near-term product launches; and purchasing approved drugs to be sold by Noden Pharma.

Next events

Solanezumab data

December 2016

Analysts

Maxim Jacobs

+1 646 653 7027

Nathaniel Calloway

+1 646 653 7036

PDL BioPharma is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

PDL has reported earnings for Q316, the first quarter in which revenues ($14.3m) flowed in from its Noden Pharma investment. During Q3, Novartis continued to distribute the Noden products and transferred net profits after taking out the cost of manufacturing and a fee. Noden is now distributing the products itself as of Q4. PDL has also issued $150m in 2.75% convertible debt, due in 2021. The bulk of the proceeds went towards repurchasing $120m of principal of its 4% notes, due in 2018.

Year
end

Revenue ($m)

PBT*
($m)

EPS*
($)

DPS
($)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/14

581.2

501.3

2.04

0.61

1.0

29.3

12/15

590.4

530.1

2.04

0.60

1.0

28.8

12/16e

227.8

153.0

0.60

0.10

3.5

4.8

12/17e

190.1

70.8

0.31

0.00

6.7

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalized, excluding amortization of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Noden acquisition vehicle up and running

Through its 88% ownership position in Noden Pharma, which currently markets the Tekturna/Rasilez franchise, PDL now has a vehicle to take advantage of divestments from large pharmaceutical companies and build a successful, profitable specialty pharmaceutical franchise.

Auvi-Q to return to market in H117

Kaléo has announced that Auvi-Q, its proprietary product for the treatment of allergic reactions (and competitor to EpiPen), will be returning to the market in H117 due to the resolution of manufacturing problems. This reduces the risk that Kaléo will be unable to pay the principal and interest payments on its $144.8m note.

$150m convertible note offering

The company recently completed a $150m convertible debt offering with gross proceeds of $145.8m. The notes have a 2.75% coupon, are due in 2021 and have a conversion price of $3.81 per share (although with the associated capped call transaction, it will be non-dilutive under $4.88 per share for any amount owed above the principal amount). $121.5m of the proceeds will go towards repurchasing $120m in principal and $1.5m in accrued interest on its 4% 2018 notes with a $9.17 conversion price.

Valuation: $5.47 per share

We have decreased our valuation from $1,133m or $6.84 per basic share to $906m or $5.47 per share, primarily due to the failure of Lilly’s solanezumab (from which PDL would have received a 2% royalty), as well as cash flowing out to assets associated with Noden and Ariad and some adjustments to the portfolio. Our future valuation will depend on the profitability of Noden and additional deals. The company is currently well capitalized and we do not project a need for additional capital.

Quarterly update

PDL recently reported results for Q3 and provided on update on numerous assets. Notably, the company reported $15.0m in royalty revenue from the Queen et al. royalty stream. This revenue is based on the sales of Tysabri over Q216. The royalty agreements for the other Queen et al. products have stopped, but the royalties for Tysabri are tied to product manufactured during 2014. Biogen continues to draw down this inventory, which will likely provide additional revenue. The Tysabri royalty for Q316 is similar to Q216, suggesting the same volume of product bearing the royalty was sold, and therefore this revenue stream will likely continue, at least to some degree, into Q4. We do not include this revenue in our forecasts and valuation due to lack of insight into these inventory levels.

Also, PDL announced that Janssen received FDA approval for Invokamet XR for Type 2 diabetes, from which PDL will receive royalties as it is part of the Depomed royalty right asset, triggering a $5m milestone payment. This follows the Jentadueto XR approval in Q216 from which PDL received a $6m milestone.

In accordance with its Iclusig royalty agreement with Ariad, PDL funded the second tranche of $50m. With this payment, PDL’s royalty rate now increases to 5% through the end of 2018, after which it will receive 6.5% royalty.

In connection with its impaired Direct Flow asset, PDL funded an additional $3m in the form of a note in exchange for interest and an unspecified number of warrants with an exercise price of $0.01 per share. As Direct Flow is impaired and it is private with an undisclosed share price, we value the asset at the carrying value of the note, which is currently $60.1m. PDL is currently exploring its options for Direct Flow, including initiating foreclosure proceedings as Direct Flow has found it difficult to raise additional capital.

The Paradigm Spine agreement has successful concluded as Paradigm Spine paid PDL $57.5m in accrued interest and a prepayment fee on $54.7m in principal owed.

Finally, Kaléo has announced that Auvi-Q, its proprietary product for the treatment of allergic reactions (and competitor to EpiPen), will be returning to the market in H117 due to the resolution of manufacturing problems. This reduces the risk that Kaléo will be unable to pay the principal and interest payments on its $144.8m note.

Solanezumab failure

Lilly announced that solanezumab did not meet the primary endpoint in its EXPEDITION3 pivotal trial in people with mild dementia due to Alzheimer’s disease. With a p-value of 0.095, there were trends favoring solanezumab, but the magnitude of the benefit was small and likely not clinically meaningful. Lilly has announced that it will not pursue regulatory submissions for the drug in this indication, although its future in other indications is unclear. PDL is entitled to a 2% royalty on the drug, so a successful trial could have been a lucrative and high-margin revenue stream.

Valuation

We have decreased our valuation from $1,133m or $6.84 per basic share to $906m or $5.47 per share, primarily due to the failure of Lilly’s solanezumab (which accounted for approximately 15% of our valuation), as well as cash flowing out to assets associated with Noden and Ariad and some adjustments to the portfolio.

We increased the value of the Depomed royalties by $18.4m mainly due to Invokamet XR approval, which caused us to increase its probability of success from 70% to 100% and lower the discount rate from 12.5% to 10.0%. The value of the University of Michigan royalty on Cerdelga for Gaucher disease was reduced by $4.9m as Sanofi reported a lower trajectory of sales than we were expecting. Our peak sales estimate has been reduced from $770.7m to $642.9m. Our value for Direct Flow increased by $12m mainly due to the fact that PDL has provided additional financing to the company over the last couple of quarters and due to a change in valuation method as we no longer use NPV but use the carrying value of the amount owed that appears in PDL’s regulatory filings.

Our future valuation will depend on the profitability of Noden and additional deals. The company is currently well capitalized and we do not project a need for additional capital.

Exhibit 1: PDL valuation

Royalty/note

Type

Expiration year

PDL balance sheet carrying value (m)

NPV (m)

Queen et al

Royalty

2015

N/A

N/A

Depomed

Royalty on Glumetza and other products

2024

$134.3

$230.1

VB

Royalty on Spine Implant

Undisclosed

$14.8

$24.5

University of Michigan

Royalty on Cerdelga

2022

$64.6

$24.8

DirectFlow

Note (Impaired)

2018

$60.1

$60.1

Wellstat

Note (Impaired)

Unknown

$50.2

$50.2

Hyperion

Note (Impaired)

Unknown

$1.2

$1.2

Avinger

Royalty

2018

$1.9

$2.2

Lensar

Note

2018

$43.9

$56.8

Kaleo

Note

2029

$146.7

$154.8

Acelrx

Royalty on Zalviso

2027

$74.1

$67.5

Ariad

Royalty on Iclusig

2033

$100.1

$87.1

Careview

Note

2022

$18.9

$20.7

Noden

Equity

N/A

N/A

$158.2

Kybella

Royalty

Unknown

$9.8

$12.7

Total

 

 

 

$951

Net debt (Q316 plus COD less Noden acq.), m

$45.3

Total firm value, m

$906

Total basic shares, m

165.5

Value per basic share

$5.47

Total options, m

0.2

Total number of shares, m

165.8

Diluted value per share

$5.46

Source: Edison Investment Research

Financials

PDL reported revenue of $53.6m for the quarter, up from $21.0m in Q2 due to higher royalties and interest revenue and the inclusion of Noden. R&D and SG&A spending totaled $12.3m, up from $7.0m last quarter, mainly due to an increased headcount related to Noden. The company ended the quarter with $106.6m in cash, $8.0m in short-term investments and $75m in a long-term certificate of deposit, which serves as collateral for the remaining portion of the Tekturna acquisition cost due to Novartis in July 2017. We do not expect PDL to need additional financing in the future, and we believe that it will not need to refinance its current outstanding debt of $233m in convertible notes (4% due 1 February 2018, $9.17 conversion price). We expect an aggregate $132m in additional debt to be issued to Noden to complete the Tekturna transaction based on PDL’s guidance. However, should Noden fail to secure this financing, PDL is obligated to provide the cash itself.

Following the end of the quarter, the company completed a $150m convertible debt offering with gross proceeds of $145.8m. The notes have a 2.75% coupon, are due in 2021 and have a conversion price of $3.81 per share. With the associated capped call transaction, no net additional shares will be issued for any amount owed above the principal amount unless the stock price is above $4.88. $121.5m of the proceeds will go to repurchasing $120m in principal and $1.5m in accrued interest on its 4% 2018 notes with a $9.17 conversion price. This lower conversion price increases the chance that the debt will be converted into shares rather than having to be paid back in cash.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

Year end 31 December

US GAAP

US GAAP

US GAAP

US GAAP

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

581,225

590,448

227,784

190,071

Cost of Sales

0

0

(5,088)

(19,113)

Gross Profit

581,225

590,448

222,696

170,958

General & Administrative

(34,914)

(36,090)

(50,050)

(80,321)

EBITDA

 

 

546,311

550,379

170,713

88,704

Operating Profit (before GW and except.)

 

546,311

550,379

170,713

88,704

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

(6,014)

(15,886)

Other

0

(3,979)

0

0

Exceptionals

0

0

(2,629)

0

Operating Profit

546,311

550,379

162,070

72,818

Net Interest

(38,896)

(26,691)

(17,695)

(17,862)

Other

(6,143)

6,450

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

501,272

530,138

153,018

70,842

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

501,272

530,138

144,375

54,956

Tax

(179,028)

(197,343)

(53,530)

(12,007)

Deferred tax

(0)

(0)

(0)

(0)

Profit After Tax (norm)

322,244

332,795

99,488

58,835

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

322,244

332,795

90,845

42,949

Minority interest

 

 

0

0

(1,956)

(7,358)

Profit After Tax less Minority Interest (FRS 3)

322,244

332,795

88,889

35,590

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

158.2

163.4

163.9

167.2

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

203.66

203.69

59.51

30.80

EPS - FRS 3 (c)

 

 

203.66

203.69

54.24

21.29

Dividend per share (c)

61.1

60.2

10.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

100.0

100.0

97.8

89.9

EBITDA Margin (%)

94.0

93.2

74.9

46.7

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

94.0

93.2

74.9

46.7

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

606,453

733,468

904,294

843,361

Intangible Assets

0

0

238,291

222,405

Tangible Assets

62

31

1,606

1,593

Royalty rights

259,244

399,204

391,927

354,240

Other

347,147

334,233

272,471

265,124

Current Assets

 

 

355,897

279,731

355,616

389,294

Stocks

0

0

0

0

Debtors

300

0

31,792

31,792

Cash

291,377

218,883

107,953

310,253

Other

64,220

60,848

215,872

47,249

Current Liabilities

 

 

(187,983)

(36,662)

(109,906)

(148,806)

Creditors

(318)

(394)

(7,134)

(7,134)

Short term borrowings

(175,496)

(24,966)

0

(126,400)

Other

(12,169)

(11,302)

(102,772)

(15,272)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(313,930)

(283,485)

(372,744)

(254,459)

Long term borrowings

(276,228)

(232,835)

(266,943)

(148,658)

Other long term liabilities

(37,702)

(50,650)

(105,801)

(105,801)

Net Assets

 

 

460,437

693,052

777,261

829,390

Minority Interests

0

0

0

(12,840)

Shareholder equity

 

 

460,437

693,052

777,261

816,550

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

292,281

301,465

46,297

84,593

Net Interest

0

0

0

0

Tax

0

0

0

0

Capex

(49)

(9)

(109,938)

(6)

Acquisitions/disposals

21,360

(71,593)

3,071

75,374

Financing

0

0

0

0

Dividends

(96,557)

(98,307)

(16,433)

0

Other

(159,420)

(8,046)

(34,652)

42,340

Net Cash Flow

57,615

123,510

(111,655)

202,300

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

300,978

160,347

38,918

154,790

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Exchange rate movements

0

0

0

0

Other

83,016

(2,081)

(4,217)

(8,115)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

160,347

38,918

154,790

(39,395)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by PDL BioPharma and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by PDL BioPharma and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

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US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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