PharmaMar — Update 9 March 2016

PharmaMar — Update 9 March 2016

PharmaMar

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PharmaMar

ADMYRE results keenly awaited

FY15 results

Pharma & biotech

10 March 2016

Price

€2.37

Market cap

€527m

$/€ 1.1

Net debt end-Dec 2015 (€m)

46.9

Shares in issue

222.2m

Free float

73%

Code

PHM

Primary exchange

BME

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

30.9

(28.4)

(36.6)

Rel (local)

18.5

(19.6)

(20)

52-week high/low

€4.32

€1.73

Business description

PharmaMar is a Spanish biopharmaceutical company with a core focus on the development of marine-based drugs for cancer. Yondelis is approved in the US, EU and Japan, and is partnered with Janssen (J&J) in the US and Taiho in Japan. The group also has subsidiaries commercialising and developing consumer chemicals, molecular diagnostics and RNAi.

Next events

Aplidin Phase III results

Q116

Initiate PM1183 lung cancer Phase III

Mid 2016

Fully enrol PM1183 ovarian cancer Phase III

2016

Analysts

Dennis Hulme

+61 (0)2 9258 1161

Lala Gregorek

+44 (0)20 3681 2527

PharmaMar is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

PharmaMar’s increasing investment in its promising oncology pipeline is supported by growing Yondelis revenue that will be further buoyed by recent approvals in the US, Japan and elsewhere, as well as by refinancing of its short-term debt. Phase III data for Aplidin in multiple myeloma, expected later this month, could be a significant catalyst for the stock. Our valuation is unchanged at €1.07bn or €4.82 per share ahead of this.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/14

149.7

16.3

6.77

0.0

0.4

N/A

12/15

162.0

6.5

3.24

0.0

0.7

N/A

12/16e

177.1

(3.1)

(2.12)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/17e

195.6

24.3

10.14

0.0

0.2

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items.

Aplidin: ADMYRE Phase III results due this month

The 255-patient ADMYRE Phase III trial of Aplidin in relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma is expected to read out later this month. An interim analysis (79 patients) in December 2012 showed that, at that stage, Aplidin was on track to meet the efficacy target of a 60% improvement in PFS, so the final results are keenly awaited. If the results are positive, we expect filing for approval in Q416.

Pipeline development continues apace

A Phase III trial of PM1183 in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer is expected to complete recruitment this year, and a Phase III trial of the drug in small cell lung cancer is expected to commence mid-year, following an impressive 67% response rate in earlier trials. A Phase II trial of the microtubule inhibitor PM184 in 106 patients with breast cancer was initiated in February 2016.

Robust financial position to fund pipeline

FY15 group net sales increased 10% to €162m, of which Yondelis’s commercial sales rose 8% to €80.7m. EBITDA was down by 25% to €19.3m due to a significant increase in oncology R&D expense (+23% to €55.6m). The issue of €17m of non-convertible bonds in July 2015 has allowed PharmaMar to reduce short-term debt from €44.5m at end 2014 to €28.6m at end 2015. The company ended 2015 with €26.8m of undrawn credit lines plus €45.6m of cash and financial assets. This puts it in a robust financial position to fund its clinical trial programme, regardless of whether the mooted US IPO proceeds this year.

Valuation: Unchanged at €4.82 per share

Our valuation is unchanged at €1.07bn or €4.82/share, with the increased forecast marketing and R&D spend in FY16-17 offset by the roll forward of the DCF model. We lower our near-term EBITDA forecasts for FY16-FY17 by 63% and 36% respectively due to higher marketing and R&D expenses. However, longer-term prospects remain solid and we see significant potential upside from the Yondelis market launches in the US and Japan, and from Aplidin data later this month.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

€'000s

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

149,652

161,992

177,100

195,587

Cost of Sales

(40,765)

(45,705)

(44,849)

(46,593)

Gross Profit

108,887

116,287

132,250

148,994

R&D Expenses (gross)

(52,456)

(63,549)

(68,789)

(71,639)

Capitalised in-house R&D

5,979

3,258

4,270

4,480

Sales, General and Administrative Expenses

(61,177)

(68,528)

(70,769)

(73,775)

Other (milestones and royalties)

28,408

31,825

12,293

27,714

EBITDA

 

 

25,704

19,329

8,643

35,156

Operating Profit (before GW and except.)

22,096

11,852

1,293

28,720

Depreciation

(3,608)

(7,477)

(7,350)

(6,436)

Intangible Amortisation

(1,859)

(523)

(2,146)

(1,975)

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

20,237

11,329

(854)

26,745

Net Interest

(5,762)

(5,327)

(4,416)

(4,446)

Other

0

0

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

16,334

6,525

(3,123)

24,273

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

14,475

6,002

(5,269)

22,299

Tax

(1,304)

654

(1,594)

(1,760)

Deferred tax

0

0

0

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

15,030

7,179

(4,717)

22,513

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

13,171

6,656

(6,863)

20,538

Minority interests

20

25

0

0

Discontinued operations

(76)

0

0

(48)

Net income (normalised)

 

 

15,050

7,204

(4,717)

22,513

Net income (FRS3)

 

 

13,115

6,681

(6,863)

20,490

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

222.2

222.2

222.2

222.2

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

6.8

3.2

(2.1)

10.1

EPS - FRS 3 (c)

 

 

0.06

0.03

(0.03)

0.09

Dividend per share (c)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Gross Margin (%)

72.8%

71.8%

74.7%

76.2%

EBITDA Margin (%)

17.2%

11.9%

4.9%

18.0%

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

14.8%

7.3%

0.7%

14.7%

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

99,473

99,804

93,850

89,351

Intangible Assets

28,836

29,377

27,231

25,256

Tangible Assets

29,218

30,624

26,816

24,292

Other

41,419

39,803

39,803

39,803

Current Assets

 

 

101,916

112,135

111,062

137,274

Stocks

24,404

22,990

24,575

25,530

Debtors

36,989

40,200

43,668

48,227

Cash and current financial assets

35,511

45,625

39,498

60,196

Other

5,012

3,320

3,320

3,320

Current Liabilities

 

 

(82,626)

(61,203)

(60,786)

(61,653)

Creditors

(38,160)

(32,574)

(32,157)

(33,024)

Short term borrowings

(44,466)

(28,629)

(28,629)

(28,629)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(58,694)

(68,280)

(68,533)

(68,842)

Long term borrowings

(47,003)

(64,973)

(64,973)

(64,973)

Other long term liabilities

(11,691)

(3,307)

(3,560)

(3,869)

Net Assets

 

 

60,069

82,456

75,592

96,131

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

23,475

10,195

3,425

30,817

Net Interest

(1,000)

252

(4,416)

(4,446)

Tax

(366)

654

(1,594)

(1,760)

Capex

(10,179)

(9,221)

(3,542)

(3,912)

Acquisitions/disposals

4

0

0

0

Financing

(2,905)

6,169

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

9,029

8,049

(6,127)

20,698

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

64,585

54,886

46,910

53,037

Exchange rate movements

1

0

0

0

Other

669

(73)

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

54,886

46,910

53,037

32,339

Source: Edison Investment Research; PharmaMar accounts

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Research: Investment Companies

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