Picton Property Income — Strong total returns continue

Picton Property Income (LSE: PCTN)

Last close As at 28/03/2024

GBP0.63

−0.20 (−0.32%)

Market capitalisation

GBP346m

More on this equity

Research: Real Estate

Picton Property Income — Strong total returns continue

The valuation of Picton’s property portfolio showed a 2.1% like-for-like increase in the three months ending 31 December 2017 (Q318), primarily driven by asset management, continuing growth in expected rental values and yield compression on some assets. Including the dividend, NAV total return was 4.1%, with dividend cover increasing to 126%. The targeted DPS for the current year was increased by c 3% to an annualised 3.5p (a well covered 4.1% yield). Ongoing active asset management initiatives provide additional opportunities, with leasing progress continuing in Q4.

Martyn King

Written by

Martyn King

Director, Financials

Real Estate

Picton Property Income

Strong total returns continue

Q3 NAV update

Real estate

26 January 2018

Price

86.60p

Market cap

£468m

Net debt (£m) at 31 December 2017

184.6

Net LTV as at 31 Dec. 2017

27.4%

Shares in issue

540.1m

Free float

100%

Code

PCTN

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

3.9

3.0

8.5

Rel (local)

3.6

0.7

0.8

52-week high/low

87.20p

78.50p

Business description

Picton Property Income is an internally managed investment company that invests in commercial property across the UK. The investment objective is to provide investors with an attractive level of income and the potential for capital growth.

Next events

Q418 NAV & dividend update

April 2018

FY18 results

June 2018

Analysts

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5745

Andrew Mitchell

+44 (0)20 3681 2500

Picton Property Income is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

The valuation of Picton’s property portfolio showed a 2.1% like-for-like increase in the three months ending 31 December 2017 (Q318), primarily driven by asset management, continuing growth in expected rental values and yield compression on some assets. Including the dividend, NAV total return was 4.1%, with dividend cover increasing to 126%. The targeted DPS for the current year was increased by c 3% to an annualised 3.5p (a well covered 4.1% yield). Ongoing active asset management initiatives provide additional opportunities, with leasing progress continuing in Q4.

Year end

Revenue
(£m)

EPRA EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

EPRA NAV/
share (p)

P/EPRA NAV
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/16

40.8

3.68

3.30

77.2

1.12

3.8

03/17

47.9

3.81

3.33

81.8

1.05

3.9

03/18e

43.2

4.11

3.43

89.0

0.97

4.0

03/19e

44.5

4.29

3.53

91.7

0.94

4.1

Note: *EPRA EPS excludes revaluation gains/losses and other exceptional items.

Income and capital gains in the quarter

The investment portfolio was valued at £665.3m at 31 December 2017, up from £652.1m in September (H118), including £13.6m in revaluation gains, £0.6m in disposal of non-core property, and capex. The valuation reflects a net initial yield of 5.7% and a reversionary yield of 6.7%. The average unexpired lease term was 5.2 years and occupancy was maintained at 95%. Lease events in the period added £0.26m to annualised contracted rent roll, 1.9% ahead of the H118 expected rental value (ERV). Lettings at the recently acquired Tower Wharf in Bristol have since added £0.54m to annualised rent roll, 4% ahead of ERV.

Positioned for further growth

Picton’s portfolio is overweight regional industrial and office property and significantly underweight retail and leisure (with no shopping centre exposure). Management expects a general supply and demand imbalance with limited development to drive further growth in regional office and industrial rents. The H118 ERV was £6m ahead of the contracted run rate, and much of this potential remains, representing significant opportunity to grow income from the existing assets through further void reduction, rent reviews and lease renewals.

Valuation: Well covered DPS supports total returns

While Picton has a strong income focus, it also chooses to reinvest into the portfolio in ways designed to support occupancy and income growth with the specific goal of enhancing total return. It provides an attractive dividend yield in excess of 4%, which we expect to be 1.2x covered by EPRA earnings, and with continuing opportunities to grow income from the current portfolio. Despite a strong historic record of relative outperformance, Picton trades at a P/NAV discount to peers.

Strong total returns continue through Q318

Picton’s unaudited net asset value increased to £477.4m at 31 December 2017 or by 2.7p (3.1%) to 88.6p. A summary of the movement is provided in Exhibit 1, with some rounding of the per share values. The 0.825p dividend paid in the quarter was 126% covered by net income, while a 2.1% like-for-like investment property valuation contributed £13.6m (c 2.5p per share), with capex and a small disposal taking the total movement in property values to £13.2m. The “other” NAV movement of c £0.8m includes the repurchase of 1,070,000 shares for the Employee Benefit Trust to satisfy future vesting awards made under the company’s long-term incentive plan and has no impact on the NAV per share movement in the period.

Exhibit 1: Summary of NAV movement in the quarter

£m

Per share (p)

Movement per share (p)

NAV at 30 September 2017

463.8

85.9

Movement in property values

13.2

2.5

2.4

Net income after tax for the period

5.8

1.1

1.1

Dividends paid

(4.6)

(0.9)

(0.9)

Other

(0.8)

-

-

NAV at 31 December 2017

477.4

88.6

2.7

Source: Picton, Edison Investment Research

As previously indicated, the DPS declared in respect of Q318 has been increased by c 3% to 8.75p and will be paid on 28 February 2018. This represents an annualised DPS of 3.5p.

The company has made clear that it intends to bring forward proposals later in the year for conversion to UK REIT status and will at the same time seek to change its technical listing status to that of a commercial company. These changes are not expected to have any impact on Picton’s investment or portfolio strategy, and there no plans to change the quarterly reporting or dividend cycle. We note that prospective dividend cover under the current corporate structure is c 1.2x, which suggests to us that there may be scope for the payout to increase; for now, management is indicating that it will review dividend policy again if and when REIT conversion takes place.

Portfolio activity was light during the period, with one non-core property sold for £0.6m, in line with the September (H118) valuation, but 35% ahead of the March valuation. The period saw five lettings, seven rent reviews and five lease renewals completed, securing additional annualised rent income of £0.26m, on average 1.9% of the expected rental value (ERV). Occupancy across the portfolio was maintained at 95% during the period. In September, the full occupancy ERV was £47.6m compared with the annualised contracted rental value at the time of £41.6m. Although not updated at Q3, we believe that much of this income potential remains, after allowing for ERV growth and leasing activity in the quarter and since. Picton recently announced that in Q418 it has secured two new occupiers at Tower Wharf in Bristol, the Grade A office building that it acquired for £23.15m in August 2017. These take occupancy at Tower Wharf to more than 90% from 64% at the time of the acquisition, and represent a combined annual rent of £0.54m, equivalent to £28.50 per sqft and 4% ahead of the September ERV.

The 2.1% like-for-like valuation growth in Q318 was driven by the industrial (3.5%) and office (2.2%) assets, where Picton is over-weighted, representing more than three-quarters of the portfolio. The retail and leisure assets saw a negative 0.5% valuation movement. The leasing progress at Tower Wharf is a positive indicator for the year-end valuation.

Our forecasts already anticipate some leasing progress and for now we make no change to our expected income earnings. The £13.6m Q318 revaluation movement was well ahead of the £5.0m that we had allowed for in H218 as a whole. We have increased the H218 assumption to £15.0m, with a positive impact on EPRA NAV per share.

Exhibit 2: Forecast changes

Revenue (£m)

Adj. EPRA EPS (p)

EPRA NAV/share (p)

DPS (p)

Old

New

% change

Old

New

% change

Old

New

% change

Old

New

% change

FY18e

43.2

43.2

0.0

4.11

4.11

0.0

87.2

89.0

2.1

3.43

3.43

0.0

FY19e

44.5

44.5

0.0

4.29

4.29

0.0

89.9

91.7

2.1

3.53

3.53

0.0

Source: Edison Investment Research

The increase in the investment portfolio value in Q3 contributed towards a reduction in gearing in Q318, with the net LTV reducing to 27.4% from 28.2% in September. The company continues to look for investment opportunities and has £39m of borrowing headroom available from its revolving credit facilities.

While Picton has a strong income focus, it also chooses to reinvest into the portfolio in ways designed to support occupancy and income growth with the specific goal of enhancing total return. It has a built a strong and consistent record of property returns (income and capital) over a number of years and has outperformed its MSCI IPD Quarterly Benchmark over one, three, five and 10 years to September 2017 (a Q318 benchmark comparison is not yet available). In Exhibit 3 we show a summary valuation comparison of Picton and what we consider to be its closest peers.

Exhibit 3: Peer comparison

Price
(p)

Market cap
(£m)

NAVPS*
(p)

DPS**
(p)

P/NAV
(x)

Yield
(%)

EPIC

109.4

230

111.0

5.75

0.99

5.3

F&C Commercial Property

141.4

1,130

140.0

6.00

1.01

4.2

F&C UK Real Estate Investments

106.0

255

104.9

5.00

1.01

4.7

Custodian REIT

115.6

437

104.9

6.45

1.10

5.6

Regional REIT

101.6

379

104.4

7.85

0.97

7.7

Schroders REIT

65.0

337

65.7

2.48

0.99

3.8

Standard Life Investment Property

96.9

383

86.0

4.76

1.13

4.9

UK Commercial Property Trust

90.0

1,169

90.4

3.68

1.00

4.1

Average

100.9

1.02

5.0

Picton Property Income

86.0

464

88.6

3.50

0.97

4.1

Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg. Note: *Last published NAV. **Prospective yield. Data as at 25 January 2018.

Picton’s 4.1% prospective yield compares with a c 5.0% simple average for the peer group, while its c 3% discount to last published NAV positions it at a discount. It would appear to us that Picton is being valued as if its immediate income distributions are structural (whereas they could be increased given the dividend cover), without giving obvious credit for the potential to further grow that income or to continue to enhance total returns through continued investment. The market does not appear to be anticipating a continuation of its historical relative property return outperformance and is certainly not pricing in achievement of management’s goal of being sustainably one of the best performing, diversified listed property companies on the main market.

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

Year end 31 March

£'000s

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

31,967

35,151

40,770

47,911

43,217

44,515

Service charge income

4,782

4,511

5,153

6,487

6,083

6,265

Total revenue

 

 

36,749

39,662

45,923

54,398

49,300

50,781

Gross property expenses

(8,992)

(9,320)

(10,001)

(12,011)

(11,422)

(11,570)

Net rental income

 

 

27,757

30,342

35,922

42,387

37,878

39,211

Administrative expenses

(1,139)

(1,194)

(1,510)

(1,613)

(1,982)

(2,116)

Operating Profit before revaluations

 

 

26,618

29,148

34,412

40,774

35,896

37,095

Revaluation of investment properties

18,422

53,163

44,171

15,087

32,362

10,000

Profit on disposals

5,660

412

799

1,847

2,488

0

Management expenses

(2,127)

(2,591)

(2,901)

(3,636)

(3,660)

(3,752)

Operating Profit

48,573

80,132

76,481

54,072

67,086

43,343

Net Interest

(10,868)

(10,930)

(11,417)

(10,823)

(9,753)

(9,718)

Profit Before Tax

 

 

37,705

69,202

65,064

43,249

57,333

33,625

Taxation

(357)

(347)

(216)

(499)

(614)

(673)

Profit After Tax

37,348

68,855

64,848

42,750

56,719

32,953

Profit After Tax (EPRA)

13,266

15,280

19,878

20,566

22,191

23,153

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

359.9

445.3

540.1

540.1

540.1

540.1

EPS (p)

 

 

10.38

15.46

12.01

7.92

10.50

6.10

Adj EPRA EPS (p)

 

 

3.69

3.43

3.68

3.81

4.11

4.29

Dividends paid per share (p)

 

 

3.000

3.000

3.300

3.325

3.425

3.525

Dividend cover (x)

1.23

1.14

1.12

1.15

1.20

1.22

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

421,393

536,898

649,406

618,391

671,446

684,946

Investment properties

417,207

532,926

646,018

615,170

668,279

681,779

Other non-current assets

4,186

3,972

3,388

3,221

3,167

3,167

Current Assets

 

 

42,879

84,111

37,408

49,960

47,764

49,516

Debtors

10,527

14,019

14,649

16,077

16,771

17,391

Cash

32,352

70,092

22,759

33,883

30,993

32,125

Current Liabilities

 

 

(17,369)

(17,480)

(47,521)

(21,171)

(21,163)

(21,783)

Creditors/Deferred income

(14,434)

(16,468)

(18,430)

(20,067)

(20,035)

(20,655)

Short term borrowings

(2,935)

(1,012)

(29,091)

(1,104)

(1,128)

(1,128)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(232,807)

(233,559)

(222,161)

(205,255)

(217,185)

(217,185)

Long term borrowings

(231,081)

(231,834)

(220,444)

(203,540)

(215,470)

(215,470)

Other long term liabilities

(1,726)

(1,725)

(1,717)

(1,715)

(1,715)

(1,715)

Net Assets

 

 

214,096

369,970

417,132

441,925

480,862

495,494

Net Assets excluding goodwill and deferred tax

 

 

214,096

369,970

417,132

441,925

480,862

495,494

NAV/share (p)

56.4

68.5

77.2

81.8

89.0

91.7

EPRA NAV/share (p)

56.4

68.5

77.2

81.8

89.0

91.7

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

23,145

24,705

33,283

36,283

32,055

34,083

Net Interest

(8,768)

(8,695)

(8,836)

(9,211)

(9,381)

(9,718)

Tax

(394)

(369)

(426)

(232)

(530)

(673)

Net cash from investing activities

(10,838)

(61,729)

(68,123)

48,691

(18,278)

(3,524)

Ordinary dividends paid

(10,711)

(13,102)

(17,822)

(17,957)

(18,497)

(19,037)

Debt drawn/(repaid)

(1,031)

(3,191)

14,591

(46,450)

11,741

0

Proceeds from shares issued

18,043

100,121

0

0

0

0

Other cash flow from financing activities

Net Cash Flow

9,446

37,740

(47,333)

11,124

(2,890)

1,132

Opening cash

 

 

22,906

32,352

70,092

22,759

33,883

30,993

Closing cash

 

 

32,352

70,092

22,759

33,883

30,993

32,125

Closing debt

(234,016)

(232,846)

(249,535)

(204,644)

(216,598)

(216,598)

Closing net (debt)/cash

 

 

(201,664)

(162,754)

(226,776)

(170,761)

(185,605)

(184,473)

Net LTV

34.6%

27.3%

27.4%

26.7%

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Picton Property Income and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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