Pricer — Update 9 December 2015

Pricer — Update 9 December 2015

Pricer

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Pricer

Perfectly positioned to perform

Tech hardware & equipment

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10 December 2015

Price

SEK9.15

Market cap

SEK1,016m

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Share details

Code

PRIC-B

Listing

OMX Nordic

Shares in issue

111.0m

Business description

Pricer is one of the two leading global electronic shelf label (ESL) producers. ESLs are employed by food and non-food retailers to remotely update product prices and provide value-added analytics. The company has installed its products in 13,500 stores for 200 different retailers in more than 50 countries.

Bull

Strong growth potential in ESL market arising from new-generation products.

Technical challenges provide barriers to entry.

Debt-free, net cash-positive balance sheet with potential to restart dividend payments (net cash at September 2015: SEK49.8m, or SEK 0.49 per share).

Bear

High operational leverage and the lumpy nature of project revenues give rise to significant earnings volatility on a quarterly as well as annual basis.

Order backlog at end Q315 was a relatively low SEK 130m.

Low share liquidity.

Analysts

Anna Bossong

+44 (0)20 3077 5737

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5729

Pricer’s 9M15 results showed the group pulling decisively out of the earnings slump of the last two years, with revenues up 69% and operating profit rebounding from SEK8.7m in 9M14 to SEK40.4m. We are bullish on the ESL market as implementation ROIs for retailers have increased dramatically in recent years. This follows improvements in label quality and the addition of value-added benefits in operational efficiency, pricing and other analytics and customer interaction. Research house ABI forecasts the market to grow sixfold to $2bn in the five years to 2019 and, as one of the two global leaders in the sector, we expect Pricer to participate fully.

Revenue and operating leverage driving profit growth

Pricer reported a 69% y-o-y increase in revenues over 9M15 largely due to major projects with increased sales of higher-priced ePaper labels. Slowing the gross margin decline to 2.5pp helped gross profit to rise 51% y-o-y and operating profit to increase 364% y-o-y to SEK 40.4m. Order inflows for the period reached SEK799m, but lumpy project completions led to a reduction in order backlog from SEK300m to SEK130m in Q3. We expect order inflows to pick up again in H116 and to drive revenues higher. Very positively, management has signalled a likely improvement in gross margins in 2016 which, given the operating leverage of the business, should lead to further strong growth in operating and net earnings.

New products are boosting sector demand

As mentioned above, we expect the new generation of ePaper graphic and NFC-enabled ESLs, together with new value-added software and hardware features, to continue to increase demand for ESL systems across the retail spectrum and into major undeveloped markets outside Europe (see our SESL note of 17 November 2015). Pricer has launched a promising new SmartTAG flashing-light ESL with added benefits in highlighting out-of-stock situations at the shelf and guiding customers and stock pickers to the correct shelf, with the latter generating efficiency gains for the retailer.

Valuation: Margin gains main value driver

Pricer lacks consensus forecasts but, based on the four quarters to 09/15, the company trades on normalised EV/EBITDA and EV/sales multiples of 16.1x and 1.23x, respectively. Against the only listed peer, SES, these are at a c 5% premium and c 8% discount respectively, the latter indicating re-rating potential on margin growth. We see margin expansion, order inflow and dividend news as key catalysts.

Historical data

Year
end

Revenue
(SEKm)

PBT
(SEKm)

EPS
(SEK)

DPS
(SEK)

EV/EBITDA
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/12

549.2

66.5

0.33

0.25

12.7

2.7

12/13

524.6

14.2

0.10

0.25

37.2

2.7

12/14

583.0

15.8

0.12

0.0

30.6

N/A

09/15*

865.3

48.6

0.33

0.0

16.1

N/A

Source: Pricer. Note: PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding acquired intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments. *Rolling 12 months to 09/15.

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New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Research: Healthcare

Selvita — Update 8 December 2015

Selvita

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