ProCredit Holding — Well-positioned to achieve its targets

ProCredit Holding (XETRA: PCZ)

Last close As at 28/03/2024

EUR9.06

0.38 (4.38%)

Market capitalisation

EUR512m

More on this equity

Research: Financials

ProCredit Holding — Well-positioned to achieve its targets

ProCredit (PCB) maintains its market position as an impact-oriented bank for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Southeastern (SEE) and Eastern Europe (EE) as well as Ecuador. It has navigated the COVID-19 crisis well and posted strong 7.7% loan book growth in H121, a 10bp cost of risk (below its closest peers) and a solid capital base (CET1 ratio of 13.7% at end-H121 versus a regulatory requirement of 8.2%). Management has confirmed its FY21 guidance and medium-term targets, but plans to update the latter in March 2022 as the targeted 10% ROE and 20% share of green loans in loan book are already within reach in FY21.

Milosz Papst

Written by

Milosz Papst

Director, Financials

Futuristic global business

Financials

ProCredit Holding

Well-positioned to achieve its targets

Banks

Deutsches Eigenkapitalforum 2021

27 October 2021

Price

€7.90

Market cap

€465m

Share price graph

Share details

Code

PCZ

Shares in issue

58.9m

Total assets (€bn) at end June 2021

7.6

Business description

ProCredit Holding is a Germany-based group operating regional banks across Southeastern and Eastern Europe, as well as in Ecuador. The banks focus on SMEs and private middle-income and high earners (SME borrowers represented c 93% of its loan book at end-June 2021). At end-June 2021, the group’s total assets stood at €7.6bn.

Bull

Management reaffirmed its FY21 and medium-term guidance.

Focus on well-established SMEs, reflected in high quality of loan portfolio.

Transition economies exhibit better growth prospects than developed markets, albeit with higher risk of operations.

Bear

A new COVID-19 wave remains a potential risk factor given vaccination rates in the region south of Western Europe.

Low interest rate environment puts pressure on net interest margin (although monetary tightening has started in some countries).

ROE below peers over recent years, although relatively stable throughout the cycle.

Analyst

Milosz Papst

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Anna Dziadkowiec

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

ProCredit Holding is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

ProCredit (PCB) maintains its market position as an impact-oriented bank for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Southeastern (SEE) and Eastern Europe (EE) as well as Ecuador. It has navigated the COVID-19 crisis well and posted strong 7.7% loan book growth in H121, a 10bp cost of risk (below its closest peers) and a solid capital base (CET1 ratio of 13.7% at end-H121 versus a regulatory requirement of 8.2%). Management has confirmed its FY21 guidance and medium-term targets, but plans to update the latter in March 2022 as the targeted 10% ROE and 20% share of green loans in loan book are already within reach in FY21.

Strong H121 in the 2021 macro recovery

PCB’s net income came in at a strong €20.7m in Q221 (versus €8.0m in Q220), translating into an annualised return on equity (ROE) of 10.2% (and 9.1% in H121). This was assisted by a favourable cost of risk development (with a net positive P&L impact of €0.9m), solid loan book growth (4.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q221) and stable year-on-year net interest margin (NIM) of 2.9%. PCB’s business progress has been coupled with economic recovery across its markets. In October 2021, the IMF updated its forecasts for real GDP growth in emerging and developing Europe to 6.0% in 2021 (from 4.9% previously) and to 3.6% in 2022 (unchanged). It expects real GDP growth in Ecuador of 2.8% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022.

On track to scale the business further

In October 2021, management confirmed its FY21 guidance (c 10% loan portfolio growth, 8.0–9.5% ROE, c 65% CIR, >13% CET1 and >9% leverage ratio, a one-third dividend payout) and medium-term targets (c 10% loan portfolio growth pa, c 10% ROE, a CIR below 60%, a 20% share of green loans in total loan book and one-third dividend payout). PCB’s emphasis is now on realising scalability effects from its tailored digital platform (developed by its in-house IT company Quipu) and lean branch structure, which would contribute to a further decline in CIR and enhance ROE. PCB’s performance should be supported by its conservative approach to credit risk management, translating into lower credit default rates than the levels seen in the countries where it conducts operations.

Valuation: Offering 59% upside potential

PCB’s shares currently trade at a FY21e P/BV multiple of 0.6x versus an average 1.3x for a group of local and Austrian banks active in SEE and EE, which we believe is only partially justified by PCB’s lower ROE. Our P/BV-ROE valuation currently stands at €12.60 per share, implying c 59% upside.

Edison estimates

Year
end

Net interest income (€m)

ROE
(%)

EPS*
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/19

194.5

6.9%

0.89

0.00

8.9

0.0

12/20

201.6

5.3%

0.70

0.53

11.3

6.7

12/21e

215.3

8.7%

1.19

0.40

6.7

5.0

12/22e

235.9

8.8%

1.28

0.43

6.2

5.4

Source: ProCredit, Edison Investment Research. Note: *From total operations.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by ProCredit Holding and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by ProCredit Holding. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by ProCredit Holding and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by ProCredit Holding. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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