SCISYS Group — Move protects the group’s space business

SCISYS Group — Move protects the group’s space business

After obtaining shareholder approval and subsequent court sanctioning, SCISYS has re-domiciled in the Republic of Ireland. The change will ensure that its German-based space business can continue to work on EU-funded space programmes, such as EGNOS, Galileo and Copernicus. SCISYS decided to finalise the move in Q4 as it is too risky to wait for the final Brexit deal. We have added the expected £0.75m re-domiciliation costs into our model as an exceptional. Hence our forecast year-end net debt rises by £0.75m to £3.7m. As management’s goal of achieving £60m in sales and double-digit margins within the next few years looks increasingly conservative, we believe the stock is attractive on c 12x our FY19e EPS.

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Written by

SCISYS Group

Move protects the group’s space business

Re-domiciliation

Software & comp services

28 November 2018

Price

151.5p

Market cap

£45m

Net debt (£m) at 30 June 2018

3.3

Shares in issue

29.5m

Free float

64%

Code

SSY

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

ESM

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(9.6)

(10.9)

23.7

Rel (local)

(10.9)

(3.6)

30.6

52-week high/low

194.0p

113.5p

Business description

SCISYS provides a range of professional services in support of the planning, development and use of computer systems in the space, media/broadcast and defence sectors, as well as to other public and private sector enterprises.

Next events

Trading update

Late January 2019

Final results

Late March 2019

Analysts

Richard Jeans

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5729

SCISYS Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

After obtaining shareholder approval and subsequent court sanctioning, SCISYS has re-domiciled in the Republic of Ireland. The change will ensure that its German-based space business can continue to work on EU-funded space programmes, such as EGNOS, Galileo and Copernicus. SCISYS decided to finalise the move in Q4 as it is too risky to wait for the final Brexit deal. We have added the expected £0.75m re-domiciliation costs into our model as an exceptional. Hence our forecast year-end net debt rises by £0.75m to £3.7m. As management’s goal of achieving £60m in sales and double-digit margins within the next few years looks increasingly conservative, we believe the stock is attractive on c 12x our FY19e EPS.

Year
end

Revenue
(£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/16

45.7

3.0

9.2

1.96

16.5

1.3

12/17

57.2

3.8

10.0

2.16

15.1

1.4

12/18e

56.0

4.4

12.0

2.38

12.6

1.6

12/19e

60.1

5.0

12.7

2.62

11.9

1.7

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. IFRS 15 is applied from 1 January 2018.

Re-domiciliation in the Republic of Ireland

To satisfy EU rules for the space industry, not only do service providers need to operate within the EU but their parent companies also have to be based in an EU country. SCISYS is most exposed to the Galileo programme, where it generated revenues of c €6m in FY16. Although SCISYS could have re-based in any EU country, it chose the Republic of Ireland for several reasons, including the same language, similar corporate law that is based on UK law, and that Ireland is outside German tax laws, which are more difficult to work with cross-border and hence involve additional costs. The new business intends to obtain UK tax residency status and therefore will not be taking advantage of lower Irish corporate tax rates. The directors believe that maintaining UK tax status will better place SCISYS to win business from the MoD, the UK Space Agency and other UK government agencies.

SCISYS has re-domiciled via a court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement, whereby the existing SCISYS has become a fully owned subsidiary of new SCISYS (SCISYS Group PLC). The re-domiciliation only affects the group holding company and no staff or work will shift to Ireland. New SCISYS falls under the jurisdiction of the Irish takeover panel. The Irish takeover rules are very similar to the protection available under the UK takeover code. New SCISYS is retaining its AIM listing and is also listed on the Euronext Dublin Enterprise Securities Market.

Valuation: Remains attractive

Our operational assumptions remain unchanged and the stock trades on 12.6x our maintained earnings in FY18e, falling to 11.9x in FY19 and to 11.3x in FY20. Alternatively, the stock trades on 0.78x our FY19 sales and 7.0x EBITDA, which we believe is attractive if SCISYS can maintain the momentum. Our DCF model, which is based on our forecasts and organic CAGR of 3.5% over 10 years, a weighted average cost of capital of 10% and an 11.0% long-term margin target, values the stock at 184p, 21% above the current share price.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£'000s

2015

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

2020e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

36,106

45,744

57,164

56,012

60,125

61,940

Cost of Sales

0

0

0

0

0

0

Gross Profit

36,106

45,744

57,164

56,012

60,125

61,940

EBITDA

 

 

1,548

3,995

5,619

6,160

6,689

6,984

Adjusted operating profit

 

 

818

3,214

4,520

4,983

5,472

5,761

Amort'n of acq'd intangibles

0

0

(1,982)

(1,250)

(1,200)

(1,150)

Exceptionals

0

(458)

2,075

(750)

0

0

Share based payments

(11)

14

0

(45)

(50)

(55)

Operating Profit

807

2,770

4,613

2,938

4,222

4,556

Net Interest

(196)

(185)

(710)

(567)

(450)

(400)

Associates

3

17

39

0

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

625

3,046

3,849

4,416

5,022

5,361

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

614

2,602

3,942

2,371

3,772

4,156

Tax

(241)

(380)

(593)

(874)

(1,243)

(1,340)

Profit After Tax (norm)

384

2,666

3,256

3,542

3,779

4,021

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

373

2,222

3,349

1,497

2,529

2,816

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

29.0

29.0

29.2

29.4

29.7

30.0

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

1.3

9.2

10.0

12.0

12.7

13.4

EPS - FRS 3 (p)

 

 

1.3

7.6

11.5

5.1

8.5

9.4

Dividend per share (p)

1.78

1.96

2.16

2.38

2.62

2.88

Gross Margin (%)

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

4.3

8.7

9.8

11.0

11.1

11.3

Operating Margin (%)

2.3

7.0

7.9

8.9

9.1

9.3

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

16,553

31,955

30,465

29,159

27,944

26,809

Intangible Assets

7,831

22,441

21,086

19,836

18,636

17,486

Tangible Assets

8,635

9,057

9,261

9,205

9,190

9,205

Deferred tax asset & associates

87

457

118

118

118

118

Current Assets

 

 

17,839

27,895

33,333

31,862

34,916

36,067

Stocks

211

261

321

315

338

348

Debtors

12,299

19,621

24,541

24,045

25,810

26,588

Cash

4,352

6,915

8,021

7,052

8,318

8,681

Current Liabilities

 

 

(12,003)

(18,763)

(23,481)

(23,393)

(24,655)

(24,894)

Creditors

(8,699)

(14,959)

(21,191)

(21,353)

(22,865)

(23,354)

Short term borrowings

(3,304)

(3,804)

(2,290)

(2,040)

(1,790)

(1,540)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(2,333)

(18,374)

(14,603)

(11,690)

(10,479)

(8,268)

Long term borrowings

(2,007)

(13,355)

(11,667)

(8,754)

(7,543)

(5,332)

Other long term liabilities

(326)

(5,019)

(2,936)

(2,936)

(2,936)

(2,936)

Net Assets

 

 

20,056

22,713

25,714

25,938

27,726

29,714

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

1,570

3,442

10,369

6,081

6,388

6,674

Net Interest

(196)

(185)

(710)

(567)

(450)

(400)

Tax

(583)

(1,250)

147

(930)

(1,283)

(1,405)

Capex

(619)

(663)

(1,255)

(1,120)

(1,202)

(1,239)

Acquisitions/disposals

(889)

(7,521)

82

(617)

0

0

Financing

(14)

15

(131)

0

0

0

Dividends

(340)

(671)

(586)

(652)

(725)

(806)

Net Cash Flow

(1,071)

(6,833)

7,916

2,194

2,728

2,824

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(328)

959

10,244

5,936

3,742

1,015

Other including foreign exchange

(216)

(2,452)

(3,608)

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

959

10,244

5,936

3,742

1,015

(1,809)

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by SCISYS Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by SCISYS Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by SCISYS Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by SCISYS Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 427484). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Neither this Communication nor any copy (physical or electronic) of it may be (i) taken or transmitted into the United States of America, (ii) distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States of America or to any US person (within the meaning of regulations Regulation S made under the US Securities Act 1933, as amended), (iii) taken or transmitted into or distributed in Canada, Australia, the Republic of Ireland or the Republic of South Africa or to any resident thereof, except in compliance with applicable securities laws, (iv) taken or transmitted into or distributed in Japan or to any resident thereof for the purpose of solicitation or subscription or offer for sale of any securities or in the context where the distribution thereof may be construed as such solicitation or offer, or (v) or taken or transmitted into any EEA state other than the United Kingdom. Any failure to comply with these restrictions may constitute a violation of the securities laws or the laws of any such jurisdiction. The distribution of this Communication in or into other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and the persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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