Share — Update 27 October 2016

Share — Update 27 October 2016

Share

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Written by

Share

Trading in line and client account acquisition

Q3 trading update

Financial services

27 October 2016

Price

28p

Market cap

£40m

Net cash (£m) at 31 July 2016

13.3

Shares in issue

143.7m

Free float

31%

Code

SHRE

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

0.0

(3.5)

(9.7)

Rel (local)

(1.6)

(6.8)

(16.0)

52-week high/low

31p

27p

Business description

Share plc’s main subsidiary is The Share Centre, which is a self-select retail stockbroker that also offers share services for corporates and employees. It has a relatively high proportion of income from fees.

Next events

FY16 results

March 2017

Analysts

Andrew Mitchell

+44 (0)20 3681 2500

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5745

Julian Roberts

+44 (0)20 3077 5748

Share is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Share indicated that Q3 trading was in line with expectations and it is continuing to implement its IT investment programme to deliver an improved customer experience and greater scalability to provide for future growth. On this front, assets under administration (AUA) have continued to increase organically and an acquisition of a book of accounts has been agreed. This and previously announced partnership agreements with Computershare and a wealth manager are set to begin contributing to revenues next year. Our estimates and valuation are unchanged.

Year
end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/15

14.1

0.6

0.40

0.74

70.0

2.6

12/16e

14.4

(0.9)

(0.49)

0.20

N/A

0.7

12/17e

15.7

(0.2)

(0.06)

0.20

N/A

0.7

12/18e

17.4

1.1

0.68

0.30

41.2

1.1

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Q3 trading update

In its Q3 update Share reported that trading had been in line with management’s expectations. Revenue excluding interest was up 7% y-o-y, including fees and dealing commissions, which were ahead 6% and 9%, respectively. Reflecting lower rates, interest income was down 35% but now accounts for less than 5% of group revenue. Assets under administration were £3.6bn, up nearly 6% from end June. Market share of revenue (ex-interest) within a ComPeer-compiled peer group stood at 10.08%, similar to Q315 (10.88%). Share also announced an agreement to acquire a book of 8,000 client accounts with AUA of c £200m; completion is expected in April 2017 and it furthers the strategy of inorganic as well as organic growth.

Outlook: Investment and return to profitability

Near-term profits are set to be held back by the investment programme to upgrade IT systems and provide an improved customer experience including further development of the mobile app. In the near term uncertainty over the nature of Brexit has detracted from market confidence and could affect transaction levels in the latter part of the year. Nevertheless, we continue to expect long-term market growth, reflecting demographic, economic and social changes. The recently announced acquisition of TD Direct Investing by Interactive Investor underlines the potential for industry consolidation and, together with fee changes by other providers, may increase the opportunities for a low-cost provider such as Share.

Valuation

Our estimates and DCF valuation are unchanged. Our DCF assumptions take into account both near-term expected losses and a return to significant profitability over the medium term. The central valuation at 29p is similar to the current share price. For further discussion and a sensitivity table see page 4.

Q316 trading update

Share reported that trading in the third quarter was in line with management expectations, with revenue before interest 7% ahead of the same period last year. The level of assets under administration has increased by 34% y-o-y or nearly 6% compared with the end of June to £3.6bn. It has also agreed to acquire a book of 8,000 client accounts. This will further the process of inorganic growth in assets under administration that it has also been pursuing through partnership agreements such as those announced earlier this year with Computershare and a (yet to be named) wealth manager. These transactions are expected to benefit revenues in 2017.

The Q3 changes in revenues for Share and its peer group are set out in Exhibit 1. Taking these in turn, the increase in fee income appears modest in comparison with the 29% increase for the ComPeer-compiled peer group. Share attributes this to changes peers have made to fee structures in order to compensate for lost trail and interest income and, as these are often based in the value of AUA, this also means higher fees at higher market levels. Share revenues did benefit from the inclusion of investment club and other dealing accounts transferred from Barclays Bank in February.

Exhibit 1: Revenue analysis

Share (% change y-o-y)

Approx. % of Share revenue

Peer group (% change y-o-y)

H1

Q3

Q3

Q3

Fees income

+2.3

+6

47

+29

Dealing commissions

+0.5

+9

48

+14

Interest and other income

-31.4

-35

5

+5

Total

-2.0

100

Source: Share plc. Note: Peer group includes Alliance Trust Savings, Barclays Stockbrokers, Equiniti, Halifax Sharedealing (HBoS), HSBC Stockbrokers, Saga Personal Finance, Selftrade and TD Investing.

Next, dealing income was up 9%, again below the peer-group increase of 14%, but Share highlights that it had a particularly strong prior year period. The overall London Stock Exchange data for retail transactions (Exhibits 2 and 3) shows that there was an even greater increase in the number of transactions in the third quarter (+26%), suggesting the investor base at Share (and to a lesser extent the peers included here) are more measured in their trading habits than the retail market as a whole.

Exhibit 2: Retail trading volume (bargains)

Exhibit 3: Retail trading volume (change vs prior year)

Source: ComPeer, London Stock Exchange

Source: ComPeer, London Stock Exchange

Exhibit 2: Retail trading volume (bargains)

Source: ComPeer, London Stock Exchange

Exhibit 3: Retail trading volume (change vs prior year)

Source: ComPeer, London Stock Exchange

Finally, interest income for Share was down sharply (-35% y-o-y), despite an increase in client money on deposit, reflecting the reduction in base rate to 0.25% and reduced appetite at banks for deposits given the regulatory environment. The 5% increase at peers looks odd in these circumstances, but the ability of bank subsidiaries to secure more favourable treatment and willingness of other players to place deposits with counterparties paying higher rates (potentially entailing higher risk) are seen as playing a role here. Interest now accounts for under 5% of Share revenues, moderating the impact of the reduction on total revenue. When rates eventually increase the low starting point should allow reasonable upside in interest income.

Share’s market share within the ComPeer-compiled peer-group was 7.72% compared with 7.87% in Q116 and 8.41% for Q315. Excluding interest, market share was 10.08% compared with 10.88% in the same quarter last year. As shown below, while there have been fluctuations, on a longer view Share’s share has increased over time.

Exhibit 4: Share plc market share within peer group (including interest income)

Source: Share plc

The agreement to acquire a book of accounts reported with the update covers 8,000 client accounts, which are mainly ISA accounts, with c £200m under administration. Completion is expected in April 2017.

Industry development

Interactive Investor’s acquisition of TD Direct Investing

Share management has highlighted for some time that consolidation among retail broking/ investment platforms was likely to take place, given the potential for economies of scale and the relatively small size of competitors compared with market leader Hargreaves Lansdown (last reported AUA £67.6bn). It had been reported that TD Bank Group might be considering the sale of its loss-making European business, TD Direct Investing (TDDI), and recently Interactive Investor (II) announced that it would buy the business. The transaction is expected to complete in the first quarter of 2017 and is backed by private equity investor JC Flowers, which is set to become the biggest investor in the combined business.

No financial terms have been disclosed, but combined AUA would be £18bn (£14.5bn from TDDI), ranking it in second position behind Hargreaves Lansdown and ahead of Alliance Trust Savings, for example (£12bn). The chairman, CEO and CFO of II will retain their positions in the enlarged company.

From Share plc’s perspective, the merger could be seen as increasing the competitive threat, but equally, with its ‘customer first’ ethos evidenced in its low and flat fee structure, it could be a beneficiary of any fallout that might arise from the integration of the businesses. II has indicated that there will be no immediate changes for either companies’ clients, but in due course decisions are to be expected in key areas such as IT integration and pricing.

Pricing will be an important consideration for competitors; if the enlarged company chooses to adopt a structure in line with II’s existing tariff, then the implications for Share should be modest as it has a broadly similar structure, although small differences may make each more attractive for different investors depending on their trading patterns/portfolio size. A migration to a higher fee structure (perhaps with an ad valorem component) could start to generate more attractive returns for investors in II but leave competitors with more flexibility to follow suit or, for Share, the possibility of further market share gains through maintenance of its attractive pricing.

Valuation

Given trading has been in line with expectations we have left our estimates unchanged at this stage, while noting the sensitivity of dealing commissions to market sentiment in the remaining part of the year.

On this basis there is no reason to modify our discounted cash flow model assumptions. As we set out in our last note in August, we expect Share’s investment programme to result in losses/negative cash flow in the current year and possibly also for 2017. However, we look for a swing back into significant profitability subsequently. We allow for this in our DCF by factoring in two years of very strong growth (60% for our central case) in 2019 and 2020 followed by seven years at 5%. This gives a central value of 29p (unchanged). Exhibit 5 shows the sensitivity of this value to changes in the assumptions for 2019/20 growth and the discount rate.

Exhibit 5: Discounted cash flow valuation sensitivity (pence per share)

Discount rate

2019 and 2020 growth

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

0%

20

19

18

18

17

30%

25

24

23

22

21

60%

32

30

29

27

26

80%

38

35

33

32

30

Source: Edison Investment Research

While it does not provide clear valuation guidance, we have refreshed our comparison of valuation metrics with Alliance Trust Savings and Hargreaves Lansdown in Exhibit 6. This underlines the larger scale of Hargreaves Lansdown and, reflecting its history of sustained growth and profitability, the higher rating it stands on in terms of value to revenue and AUA. Nevertheless, since we last wrote Hargreaves Lansdown’s multiples have declined through a combination of lower market cap and revenue/AUA growth.

Exhibit 6: Peer comparison

£m unless stated

Share

Alliance Trust Savings

Hargreaves Lansdown

Market capital

40.2

5,393.0

Surplus capital (assumes cover of twice the regulatory requirement)

6.6

85.1

Adjusted value (deducting surplus capital)

33.6

*54.0

5,307.9

Revenue

14.2

13.7

362.4

Assets under administration (AUA)

3,600

12,000

67,600

Market capital/revenue (x)

2.8

N/A

14.9

Market capital/AUA (%)

1.1

N/A

8.0

Adjusted value/revenue (x)

2.4

3.9

14.6

Adjusted value/AUA (%)

0.9

0.5

7.9

Source: Edison Investment Research, company disclosures. Note: *Valuation of Alliance Trust Savings from H1 results. Market caps as at 26 October 2016.

The range between valuations remains wide, reflecting the different profiles of the businesses. Share trades on a higher value relative to AUA than Alliance Trust Savings but also earns a higher yield on AUA and is on a lower multiple of revenues. Prospectively for Share, continued success in adding to its AUA both organically and through acquisitions together with the expected return to profitability following implementation of the IT investment programme would help earn a higher valuation on these metrics.

Exhibit 7: Financial summary

Year end 31 December (£000 except where stated)

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

2018e

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

15,042

14,050

14,383

15,693

17,437

Cost of Sales (excluding amortisation and depreciation)

(14,579)

(14,812)

(16,250)

(16,533)

(17,021)

EBITDA

463

(762)

(1,867)

(840)

416

Depreciation

(104)

(111)

(126)

(136)

(150)

Amortisation

(11)

(21)

(140)

(300)

(300)

Operating profit (pre-exceptional)

348

(894)

(2,133)

(1,276)

(34)

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

0

Other

60

1,479

628

0

0

Investment revenues

308

276

235

199

200

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

716

861

(1,270)

(1,077)

166

Profit Before Tax (norm)

1,615

584

(927)

(155)

1,132

Tax

(109)

(196)

224

215

(33)

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

607

665

(1,046)

(862)

133

Profit After Tax (norm)

1,416

555

(688)

(78)

954

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) - exc treasury

143.5

139.2

139.6

140.0

140.0

EPS - normalised (p)

0.99

0.40

(0.49)

(0.06)

0.68

EPS - FRS3 (p)

0.42

0.48

(0.75)

(0.62)

0.09

Dividend per share (p)

0.62

0.74

0.20

0.20

0.30

EBITDA Margin (%)

3.1%

(5.4%)

(13.0%)

(5.4%)

2.4%

Normalised operating margin (%)

8.3%

2.2%

(8.1%)

(2.3%)

5.3%

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets (mainly Investments)

9,405

8,083

8,658

8,738

8,355

Current Assets

21,316

19,716

18,314

18,501

20,410

Total Assets

30,721

27,799

26,972

27,239

28,765

Current Liabilities

(8,450)

(7,681)

(8,843)

(9,643)

(10,708)

Long term Liabilities

(1,594)

(1,418)

(1,335)

(1,335)

(1,335)

Net Assets

20,677

18,700

16,794

16,261

16,721

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

348

(894)

(2,133)

(1,276)

(34)

Net cash from investing activities

(434)

1,990

(122)

(101)

100

Net cash from (used in) financing

(736)

(878)

(1,019)

(280)

(280)

Net cash flow

(971)

(992)

(1,677)

(571)

899

Opening net (debt)/cash

13,626

12,655

11,663

9,986

9,414

Closing net (debt)/cash

12,655

11,663

9,986

9,414

10,314

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Share and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Share and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Research: TMT

Carclo — Update 27 October 2016

Carclo

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